Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 14 | 11 | 49 | 222 | 63 | 21 | 11 | 79% | 3.5 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 6.29 | 5.40 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 14 | 11 | 49 | 222 | 63 | 21 | 11 | 79% | 3.5 | 28.4% | 9.5% | 18.9% | 5.0% | 6.29 | 4.74 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Stockton Ports | 15 | 13 | 66 | 309 | 66 | 35 | 12 | 87% | 4.4 | 15.8% | 13.4% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 5.43 | 6.22 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Stockton Ports | 15 | 13 | 66 | 309 | 66 | 35 | 12 | 87% | 4.4 | 21.4% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 5.43 | 5.04 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 25 | 12 | 83 | 343 | 75 | 27 | 10 | 48% | 3.3 | 16.8% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.56 | 5.55 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 25 | 12 | 83 | 343 | 75 | 27 | 10 | 48% | 3.3 | 21.9% | 7.9% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 3.56 | 3.83 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 24 | 24 | 124 | 531 | 103 | 42 | 20 | 100% | 5.2 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.73 | 6.06 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 24 | 24 | 124 | 531 | 103 | 42 | 20 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 4.73 | 4.56 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 76 | 323 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.9% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.72 | 5.72 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 45 | 31 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 14.6% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.66 | 5.71 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 69 | 290 | 43 | 30 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 14.9% | 10.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.69 | 5.78 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 14.6% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.66 | 5.71 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 22 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.9% | 10.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.69 | 5.78 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 36 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.3 | 14.8% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.68 | 5.37 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 127 | 88 | 35 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.8% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.68 | 5.37 | +0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 78 | 60 | 322 | 1405 | 233 | 145 | 73 | 77% | 4.1 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.81 | 5.87 | -1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 37 | 200 | 873 | 144 | 90 | 45 | 77% | 4.1 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.81 | 5.87 | -1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Judkins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.72 | 13.9% | 10.0% | 3.9% | — | 5.74 | 14.8% | 4.5% | 142 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2027 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 82 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.77 | 15.5% | 10.2% | 4.9% | .298 | 4.76 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 249 | -1.01 | 2.90 | 806 | 81 |
| David Fletcher R 2028 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 81 |
| David Griffin R 2025 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 80 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 78 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.58 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.98 | 354 | 78 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 77 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 76 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.64 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.73 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.09 | 4.49 | 269 | 75 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 75 |
| Caleb Clay R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.63 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 111 | 75 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.66 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .380 | 7.26 | 10.9% | 1.2% | 25 | +2.60 | 3.26 | 118 | 75 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.94 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .279 | 5.79 | 16.8% | 5.6% | 41 | +0.85 | 3.68 | 244 | 75 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 74 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 74 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 74 |
| Brett Gillis R 2024 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.10 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 4.0% | .231 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 119 | 73 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.26 | 11.3% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 412 | 73 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.66 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 4.5% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 299 | 72 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 6.70 FIP | 28 | SP | 6.70 | 15.2% | 10.0% | 6.6% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 333 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 73 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 1.55 | 5.69 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |