TJ Shook
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
+0.7
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 217 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%14.6%
IP65
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL6060
CMD6060
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 13 | 13 | 53 | 229 | 71 | 28 | 7 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 25 | 21 | 114 | 512 | 118 | 57 | 22 | 18.3% | 12.4% | 5.3% | 4.74 | 6.04 | -1.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 25 | 12 | 97 | 412 | 107 | 36 | 13 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.47 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 30 | 11 | 85 | 366 | 107 | 29 | 9 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 4.66 | 4.16 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 36 | 2 | 56 | 231 | 61 | 17 | 5 | 22.2% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 2.41 | 3.35 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 7 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 10 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.93 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 63 | 19 | 8 | 23.0% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.09 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | COL | — | — | 74 | 310 | 73 | 23 | 9 | 23.4% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 3.57 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 61 | 20 | 8 | 22.9% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 4.14 | 4.16 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 20 | 8 | 22.7% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.23 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | COL | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 56 | 20 | 8 | 22.5% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.27 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | COL | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 53 | 19 | 8 | 22.3% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | COL | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 50 | 19 | 8 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | COL | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 47 | 18 | 7 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | COL | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 43 | 18 | 7 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.65 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | COL | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 40 | 17 | 7 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 4.78 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 136 | 59 | 414 | 1787 | 378 | 185 | 69 | 21.2% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 4.34 | 4.75 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 28 | 200 | 863 | 182 | 89 | 33 | 21.2% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 4.34 | 4.75 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| TJ Shook (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.09 | 23.0% | 7.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.23 | 22.7% | 15.1% | 183 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 93 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 88 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.07 | 22.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.78 | 28.3% | 18.0% | 75 | +0.71 | 3.07 | 185 | 88 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.77 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.89 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 65 | +0.12 | 2.26 | 172 | 88 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 87 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 87 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.25 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .247 | 4.33 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 39 | +1.08 | 3.25 | 160 | 87 |
| Joakim Soria R 2029 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 87 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 85 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.54 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .277 | 3.88 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 203 | +0.34 | 2.86 | 596 | 85 |
| Dayan Díaz R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.43 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .358 | 3.95 | 29.4% | 19.3% | 16 | +0.52 | 3.08 | 205 | 85 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 84 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.61 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | .350 | 5.75 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 137 | +1.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 84 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 2.8% | .307 | 6.39 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.43 | 2.85 | 299 | 84 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .359 | 5.13 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.78 | 3.35 | 108 | 84 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 83 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 124 | 83 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.11 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .266 | 3.78 | 24.3% | 15.9% | 164 | +0.67 | 2.27 | 445 | 83 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .327 | 4.82 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.30 | 2.39 | 676 | 83 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.15 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.39 | 2.73 | 316 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.