Theo Denlinger
P
Portland Sea Dogs
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 240 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
K%21.5%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 17 | 68 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.2% | 10.2% | 23.0% | 2.6% | 3.24 | 3.03 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 17 | 68 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 45.6% | 8.8% | 36.8% | 1.5% | 3.24 | 1.24 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 48 | 209 | 66 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.9% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 3.9% | 4.47 | 4.65 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 48 | 209 | 66 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.6% | 9.6% | 22.0% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 3.49 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 46 | 210 | 51 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.2% | 16.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 5.44 | 4.32 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 46 | 210 | 51 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.3% | 15.2% | 9.0% | 1.4% | 5.44 | 3.81 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 23 | 0 | 41 | 185 | 35 | 9 | 5 | 0% | 1.8 | 15.3% | 5.4% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 5.53 | 4.20 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 23 | 0 | 41 | 185 | 35 | 9 | 5 | 0% | 1.8 | 18.9% | 4.9% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 5.53 | 3.64 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 0 | 24 | 103 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 0 | 23 | 96 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.26 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 169 | 84 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 114 | 0 | 152 | 672 | 143 | 75 | 19 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.26 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 150 | 0 | 200 | 884 | 189 | 98 | 25 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Theo Denlinger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.64 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 23 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 92 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 86 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 83 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 83 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 82 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 81 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 81 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 81 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 81 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.71 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.90 | 3.62 | 164 | 81 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 81 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 81 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 81 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 81 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 80 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 80 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 80 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 80 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 80 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 78 |