Daniel Mengden
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 33
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.57
FIP4.66
K%20.2%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.0
Whiff%
p1019.6%
K%
p1617.2%
xwOBA vs
p440.318
CT+0.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 131 | 554 | 125 | 36 | 11 | 85% | 5.0 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 1.1% | 3.72 | 3.23 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 131 | 554 | 125 | 36 | 11 | 85% | 5.0 | 22.6% | 6.5% | 16.1% | 2.0% | 3.72 | 3.11 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 31 | 170 | 719 | 166 | 61 | 13 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 2.2% | 3.59 | 3.61 | +3.6 |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 31 | 170 | 719 | 166 | 61 | 13 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 1.8% | 3.59 | 3.22 | +4.3 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 18 | 89 | 368 | 78 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.4% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 3.44 | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 18 | 89 | 368 | 78 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.2% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 3.44 | 3.97 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 25 | 161 | 658 | 106 | 33 | 20 | 81% | 5.2 | 15.5% | 5.1% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 3.75 | 4.19 | +2.3 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 25 | 161 | 658 | 106 | 33 | 20 | 81% | 5.2 | 16.1% | 5.0% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 3.75 | 4.01 | +2.6 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 124 | 530 | 103 | 45 | 15 | 73% | 4.8 | 18.1% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.17 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 124 | 530 | 103 | 45 | 15 | 73% | 4.8 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.10 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 4 | 1 | 12 | 58 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 25% | 3.1 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.65 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 4 | 1 | 12 | 58 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 25% | 3.1 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.65 | 5.29 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 21 | 116 | 505 | 101 | 57 | 25 | 70% | 3.9 | 17.3% | 12.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.20 | 6.38 | -1.3 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 21 | 116 | 505 | 101 | 57 | 25 | 70% | 3.9 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 5.20 | 5.63 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 28 | 6 | 50 | 244 | 44 | 29 | 5 | 21% | 1.8 | 15.9% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 7.25 | 4.45 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 28 | 6 | 50 | 244 | 44 | 29 | 5 | 21% | 1.8 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 7.25 | 4.39 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 9 | 9 | 54 | 226 | 46 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 49 | 206 | 40 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 7 | 7 | 44 | 185 | 34 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.3% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 6 | 6 | 39 | 163 | 28 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.3% | 11.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.44 | 5.67 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.3% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.30 | — |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.3% | 11.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.44 | 5.67 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 50 | 313 | 1340 | 235 | 104 | 43 | 76% | 4.7 | 17.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.39 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 32 | 200 | 857 | 150 | 66 | 27 | 76% | 4.8 | 17.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 194 | 143 | 853 | 3636 | 649 | 314 | 108 | 74% | 4.4 | 17.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.32 | +10.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 34 | 200 | 853 | 152 | 74 | 25 | 74% | 4.4 | 17.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Mengden (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 20.2% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 5.28 | 18.4% | 7.4% | 131 | +0.62 | — | — | — |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 73 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.66 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.3% | .308 | 4.62 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.96 | 3.66 | 348 | 71 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.88 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .288 | 3.86 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 171 | -1.02 | 3.16 | 248 | 70 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.96 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 5.91 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +0.95 | 4.20 | 166 | 69 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 69 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.64 | 16.2% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 139 | 67 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.10 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 250 | 67 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 67 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .327 | 4.03 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 60 | -0.25 | 2.88 | 533 | 66 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 66 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.7% | 13.1% | 2.5% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 622 | 66 |
| Mitch Lively R 2024 · 3.49 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.49 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 158 | 66 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 252 | +0.29 | 3.69 | 521 | 66 |
| Dillon Gee R 2024 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 380 | 65 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 65 |
| Kris Medlen R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.11 | 16.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | 261 | 65 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 64 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.30 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 4.3% | .277 | 4.87 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 198 | -0.43 | 3.63 | 885 | 64 |
| Jerome Williams R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 64 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.37 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 275 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 46 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 1.31 | 4.94 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |