Daniel Mengden — OGILVIE

Daniel Mengden P Rochester Red Wings

Age 33 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.55

FIP4.63

K%20.1%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.0

Whiff%

p1019.6%

p1617.2%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

CT+0.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	131	554	125	36	11	85%	5.0	17.2%	7.5%	9.7%	1.5%	3.72	3.45	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	131	554	125	36	11	85%	5.0	22.6%	6.5%	16.1%	2.0%	3.72	3.11	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	31	170	719	166	61	13	100%	5.5	21.2%	8.8%	12.5%	2.1%	3.59	3.56	+2.8
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	31	170	719	166	61	13	100%	5.5	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	1.8%	3.59	3.22	+3.6
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	89	368	78	30	11	100%	4.9	18.4%	8.0%	10.4%	3.7%	3.44	4.59	+0.3
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	89	368	78	30	11	100%	4.9	21.2%	8.2%	13.0%	3.0%	3.44	3.97	+1.0
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	161	658	106	33	20	81%	5.2	15.5%	5.1%	10.4%	3.3%	3.75	4.27	+1.2
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	25	161	658	106	33	20	81%	5.2	16.1%	5.0%	11.1%	3.0%	3.75	4.01	+1.7
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	124	530	103	45	15	73%	4.8	18.1%	8.7%	9.4%	2.9%	4.51	4.28	+0.9
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	124	530	103	45	15	73%	4.8	19.4%	8.5%	10.9%	2.8%	4.51	4.10	+1.2
2020	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	4	1	12	58	10	7	2	25%	3.1	17.2%	12.1%	5.2%	3.8%	3.65	5.25	-0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	4	1	12	58	10	7	2	25%	3.1	17.2%	12.1%	5.2%	3.4%	3.65	5.29	-0.1
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	21	116	505	101	57	25	70%	3.9	17.3%	12.4%	4.9%	5.7%	5.20	6.33	-1.8
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	21	116	505	101	57	25	70%	3.9	20.0%	11.3%	8.7%	5.0%	5.20	5.63	-1.0
2023	30	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	28	6	50	244	44	29	5	21%	1.8	15.0%	10.7%	4.3%	2.1%	7.25	4.36	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	28	6	50	244	44	29	5	21%	1.8	15.0%	10.7%	4.3%	2.1%	7.25	4.36	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	28	6	50	244	44	29	5	21%	1.8	18.0%	11.9%	6.1%	2.0%	7.25	4.39	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			65	49	310	1327	232	103	43	75%	4.8	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	3.2%	4.65	4.40	+1.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	WSH	1	1	4	17	3	2	1	100%	4.0	20.1%	9.7%	10.4%	3.0%	4.55	4.63	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	49	206	39	21	7	100%	6.1	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	3.3%	4.78	4.94	-0.0
2028	35	MLB MLE	WSH	7	7	44	185	34	20	7	100%	6.2	18.2%	10.7%	7.5%	3.6%	5.08	5.27	-0.2
2027	34	MLB CTX	WSH	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	3.3%	4.78	4.94	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.2%	10.7%	7.5%	3.6%	5.08	5.27	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	50	313	1340	235	104	43	76%	4.7	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	3.2%	4.65	4.39	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	32	200	857	150	66	27	76%	4.8	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	3.2%	4.65	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		194	143	853	3636	647	309	111	74%	4.4	17.8%	8.5%	9.3%	3.0%	4.19	4.35	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	34	200	853	152	73	26	74%	4.4	17.8%	8.5%	9.3%	3.0%	4.19	4.35	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Mengden (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	20.1%	9.7%	3.0%	—	5.10	18.7%	8.3%	92	+0.47	—	—	—
Jair Jurrjens R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	31	SP	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	73
Josh Lindblom R 2020 · 3.50 FIP	33	SP	3.50	27.2%	8.4%	3.0%	.308	4.46	21.7%	13.8%	255	+0.96	3.50	348	72
Brandon McCarthy R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	33	SP	4.84	22.5%	11.5%	4.0%	.288	3.82	19.0%	12.4%	171	-1.02	3.09	248	69
Tim Lincecum R 2016 · 4.88 FIP	32	SP	4.88	17.9%	10.4%	3.6%	.351	5.87	14.4%	-1.1%	13	+0.99	4.20	166	68
Guillermo Moscoso R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	14.5%	6.9%	1.8%	.270	4.64	14.9%	7.5%	176	+0.87	3.77	264	67
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	67
Tyler Cloyd R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	32	SP	5.21	18.9%	9.5%	4.6%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	250	67
Lucas Harrell R 2017 · 3.57 FIP	32	SP	3.57	16.2%	10.5%	0.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	139	66
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	66
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	66
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	66
Hector Ambriz R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	32	SP	3.63	16.0%	6.4%	2.0%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.77	3.63	155	65
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	64
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	64
Kameron Loe R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	34	SP	3.84	11.9%	5.3%	2.0%	.356	3.38	17.1%	9.1%	133	-0.46	3.38	201	63
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	63
Kris Medlen R 2018 · 5.20 FIP	32	SP	5.20	16.2%	10.0%	4.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	261	63
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	63
Stephen Fife R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	31	SP	3.77	12.5%	5.1%	2.0%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	179	63
Edwin Jackson R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	33	SP-	5.02	18.7%	9.5%	4.2%	.278	5.25	16.9%	6.9%	252	+0.23	3.77	521	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	19.2%	10.1%	1.26	4.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58