Daniel Mengden
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.1
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
xFIP2.95
SIERA2.99
K%22.2%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.4%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†4545
FB Velo
p1090.0
Whiff%
p1019.6%
K%
p1617.2%
xwOBA vs
p440.318
CT+0.6
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 26 | 22 | 131 | 554 | 125 | 36 | 11 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 1.5% | 3.72 | 3.43 | +2.8 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 31 | 31 | 170 | 719 | 166 | 61 | 13 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 3.59 | 3.59 | +3.3 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 18 | 18 | 89 | 368 | 78 | 30 | 11 | 18.4% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 3.44 | 4.41 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 31 | 25 | 161 | 658 | 106 | 33 | 20 | 15.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.75 | 4.33 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 26 | 19 | 124 | 530 | 103 | 45 | 15 | 18.1% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.23 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 4 | 1 | 12 | 58 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 3.65 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 30 | 21 | 116 | 505 | 101 | 57 | 25 | 17.3% | 12.4% | 5.6% | 5.20 | 6.31 | -1.3 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 28 | 6 | 50 | 244 | 44 | 29 | 5 | 15.9% | 12.5% | 2.1% | 7.25 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 31 | 16 | 5 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 26 | 15 | 5 | 18.0% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 23 | 14 | 4 | 17.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 5.07 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 194 | 143 | 853 | 3636 | 649 | 314 | 110 | 17.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.34 | +9.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 34 | 200 | 853 | 152 | 74 | 26 | 17.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.34 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Mengden (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 5.01 | 18.0% | 7.7% | 102 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 85 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 84 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 84 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 83 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 80 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 80 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 79 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.14 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 227 | 79 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 78 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 77 |
| Tyler Thornburg R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.79 | 17.5% | 11.2% | 1.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 301 | 77 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.16 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .234 | 3.75 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.41 | 2.89 | 453 | 76 |
| Jeff Manship R 2024 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 76 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 76 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 76 |
| Hector Navarro R 2028 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 76 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 76 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .286 | 3.13 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.70 | 2.31 | 403 | 75 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.08 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.23 | 2.86 | 596 | 75 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.