Casey Lawrence
P Lehigh Valley IronPigs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 36 | AAASEA | 29 | 29 | 165 | 5.95 | 5.34 | 14.9% | 6.6% | — | K 12.8% · BB 5.9% · FIP 5.25 |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX2 levels | 26 | 19 | 118 | 5.12 | 4.56 | 12.0% | 3.9% | 1.1 | K 10.5% · BB 3.5% · FIP 4.46 |
| 2026 | 38 | AAAPHI | 30 | 30 | 162 | 4.93 | 4.46 | 14.5% | 3.5% | — | K 12.5% · BB 3.1% · FIP 4.78 |
| 2027PROJ | 39 | MLBPHI | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4.99 | 5.15 | 10.2% | 3.6% | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJMLE | 40 | MLBPHI | — | — | 0 | 5.14 | 5.23 | 12.0% | 3.5% | — |
Statcast · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 27 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 168 | 735 | 97 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 10.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 4.56 | 3.57 | — |
| 2015 | 27 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 168 | 735 | 97 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 13.2% | 4.2% | 9.0% | 1.4% | 4.56 | 3.27 | — |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 162 | 688 | 108 | 37 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 13.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 1.8% | 4.17 | 3.67 | — |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 162 | 688 | 108 | 37 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.7% | 5.4% | 10.3% | 1.9% | 4.17 | 3.50 | — |
| 2017 | 29 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 41 | 12 | 123 | 532 | 100 | 32 | 19 | 29% | 3.0 | 17.7% | 6.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 4.84 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 29 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 41 | 12 | 123 | 532 | 100 | 32 | 19 | 29% | 3.0 | 18.8% | 6.0% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 30 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 30 | 16 | 121 | 509 | 103 | 22 | 13 | 53% | 4.0 | 18.1% | 4.4% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 3.77 | +2.4 |
| 2018 | 30 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 30 | 16 | 121 | 509 | 103 | 22 | 13 | 53% | 4.0 | 20.2% | 4.3% | 15.9% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 3.34 | +3.0 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 25 | 14 | 86 | 345 | 80 | 17 | 12 | 56% | 3.4 | 20.0% | 5.2% | 14.8% | 3.7% | 4.40 | 4.08 | — |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 25 | 14 | 86 | 345 | 80 | 17 | 12 | 56% | 3.4 | 23.2% | 4.9% | 18.3% | 3.5% | 4.40 | 3.65 | — |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 29 | 23 | 144 | 562 | 117 | 21 | 23 | 79% | 5.0 | 18.6% | 3.9% | 14.7% | 4.6% | 3.38 | 4.55 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 29 | 23 | 144 | 562 | 117 | 21 | 23 | 79% | 5.0 | 20.8% | 3.7% | 17.1% | 4.1% | 3.38 | 3.99 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 36 | 21 | 131 | 576 | 110 | 39 | 25 | 58% | 3.6 | 16.9% | 6.2% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 5.14 | 5.15 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 36 | 21 | 131 | 576 | 110 | 39 | 25 | 58% | 3.6 | 19.1% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 4.3% | 5.14 | 4.79 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 36 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | 29 | 29 | 165 | 727 | 108 | 48 | 34 | 100% | 5.7 | 12.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 5.95 | 5.25 | — |
| 2024 | 36 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | 29 | 29 | 165 | 727 | 108 | 48 | 34 | 100% | 5.7 | 12.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 5.95 | 5.25 | — |
| 2024 | 36 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | 29 | 29 | 165 | 727 | 108 | 48 | 34 | 100% | 5.7 | 14.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 5.95 | 5.34 | — |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 118 | 510 | 61 | 20 | 18 | 73% | 4.5 | 10.5% | 3.5% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 118 | 510 | 61 | 20 | 18 | 73% | 4.5 | 10.5% | 3.5% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 118 | 510 | 61 | 20 | 18 | 73% | 4.5 | 12.0% | 3.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 5.12 | 4.56 | +1.1 |
| 2026 | 38 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 30 | 30 | 162 | 695 | 101 | 24 | 27 | 100% | 5.4 | 12.5% | 3.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 4.93 | 4.78 | — |
| 2026 | 38 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 30 | 30 | 162 | 695 | 101 | 24 | 27 | 100% | 5.4 | 12.5% | 3.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 4.93 | 4.78 | — |
| 2026 | 38 | AAA RAW | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 30 | 30 | 162 | 695 | 101 | 24 | 27 | 100% | 5.4 | 14.5% | 3.5% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 4.93 | 4.46 | — |
| ▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | 65 | 2 | 142 | 651 | 104 | 43 | 27 | 3% | 2.2 | 16.0% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 6.42 | 5.02 | -0.8 | ||
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | PHI | 1 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 8.0 | 10.2% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 4.99 | 5.15 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 40 | MLB MLE | PHI | 8 | 8 | 52 | 220 | 26 | 8 | 9 | 100% | 6.5 | 12.0% | 3.5% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 5.14 | 5.23 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB CTX | PHI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 3.5% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 5.14 | 5.23 | — |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 65 | 2 | 142 | 651 | 104 | 43 | 27 | 3% | 2.2 | 16.0% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 6.42 | 4.86 | -0.5 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 92 | 3 | 200 | 919 | 147 | 61 | 38 | 3% | 2.2 | 16.0% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 6.42 | 4.86 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 301 | 219 | 1380 | 5879 | 859 | 289 | 204 | 73% | 4.6 | 14.6% | 4.9% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.39 | +0.7 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 44 | 32 | 200 | 852 | 124 | 42 | 30 | 73% | 4.6 | 14.6% | 4.9% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.39 | +0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 162 IPFIP 4.44 → 4.78 (+0.34)K% 14.5% → 12.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 14.53% | — | ×0.860 | 12.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 3.45% | — | ×0.900 | 3.11% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.88% | ÷1.000 | ×1.100 | 4.27% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 4.44 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 100 IPFIP 4.64 → 4.56 (−0.08)K% 12.6% → 10.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 12.56% | — | ×0.860 | 10.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 4.42% | — | ×0.900 | 3.98% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.72% | ÷1.204 | ×1.100 | 3.40% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).
Result: FIP 4.64 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 165 IPFIP 5.25 → 5.25 (−0.00)K% 14.9% → 12.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 14.86% | — | ×0.860 | 12.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 6.60% | — | ×0.900 | 5.94% |
| HR / BF /BF | 4.68% | ÷1.142 | ×1.100 | 4.50% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).
Result: FIP 5.25 → 5.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 104 IPFIP 4.47 → 4.95 (+0.48)K% 19.8% → 17.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 19.82% | — | ×0.860 | 17.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 6.83% | — | ×0.900 | 6.15% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.96% | ÷0.955 | ×1.100 | 4.57% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).
Result: FIP 4.47 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAABuffalo Bisons · 126 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.30 (+0.56)K% 21.9% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 21.95% | — | ×0.880 | 19.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 3.52% | — | ×1.050 | 3.70% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.73% | ÷0.951 | ×1.100 | 4.31% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).
Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAABuffalo Bisons · 65 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.11 (+0.30)K% 23.1% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 23.13% | — | ×0.880 | 20.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 4.85% | — | ×1.050 | 5.09% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.73% | ÷1.081 | ×1.100 | 3.80% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).
Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 21 IPFIP 3.21 → 3.98 (+0.77)K% 23.4% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 23.38% | — | ×0.810 | 18.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 5.19% | — | ×1.100 | 5.71% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.60% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | 3.20% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).
Result: FIP 3.21 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAATacoma Rainiers · 98 IPFIP 3.14 → 3.68 (+0.54)K% 22.1% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 22.08% | — | ×0.880 | 19.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 3.23% | — | ×1.050 | 3.39% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.73% | ÷0.918 | ×1.100 | 3.27% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).
Result: FIP 3.14 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Career Comps
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.
| Player | 162s | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 1.4 | 56 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 1.57 | 5.74 |
| Christian Bergman ('18) | 1.1 | 54 | 13.8% | 5.2% | 1.67 | 5.59 |
| Edgar Gonzalez ('13) | 1.8 | 61 | 14.3% | 7.8% | 1.59 | 5.92 |
| Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*) | 1.5 | 59 | 13.7%* | 7.2%* | 1.50* | 5.28* |
| Jose Acevedo ('05) | 1.8 | 74 | 15.5% | 6.9% | 1.73 | 5.74 |
| Sergio Valdez ('86-'95, -2 WAR*) | 1.5 | 61 | 18.1%* | 8.0%* | 1.79* | 5.46* |
| Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*) | 1.1 | 55 | 17.0%* | 9.0%* | 1.61* | 5.49* |