Casey Lawrence
P
Tacoma Rainiers
Age 38
RHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION109 act + 74 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136126vR 117
ERA4.97
FIP5.18
K%10.3%
BB%5.4%
K-BB%4.9%
ROS IP74
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 183 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1087.9
Whiff%
p1014.2%
K%
p108.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.421
CT (2%)
SI (40%)
SL-1.1 (29%)
CH-1.1 (21%)
FB-1.3 (47%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 168 | 735 | 97 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 10.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 1.2% | 4.56 | 3.50 | — |
| 2015 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 168 | 735 | 97 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 13.2% | 4.2% | 9.0% | 1.4% | 4.56 | 3.27 | — |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 162 | 688 | 108 | 37 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 13.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 1.5% | 4.17 | 3.52 | — |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 162 | 688 | 108 | 37 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.7% | 5.4% | 10.3% | 1.9% | 4.17 | 3.50 | — |
| 2017 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 12 | 123 | 532 | 100 | 32 | 19 | 29% | 3.0 | 17.7% | 6.1% | 11.6% | 4.0% | 4.84 | 4.55 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 12 | 123 | 532 | 100 | 32 | 19 | 29% | 3.0 | 18.8% | 6.0% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.27 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 16 | 121 | 509 | 103 | 22 | 13 | 53% | 4.0 | 18.1% | 4.4% | 13.7% | 3.3% | 4.08 | 3.92 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 16 | 121 | 509 | 103 | 22 | 13 | 53% | 4.0 | 20.2% | 4.3% | 15.9% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 3.34 | +2.9 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 14 | 86 | 345 | 80 | 17 | 12 | 56% | 3.4 | 20.0% | 5.2% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 4.40 | 3.98 | — |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 14 | 86 | 345 | 80 | 17 | 12 | 56% | 3.4 | 23.2% | 4.9% | 18.3% | 3.5% | 4.40 | 3.65 | — |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 23 | 144 | 562 | 117 | 21 | 23 | 79% | 5.0 | 18.6% | 3.9% | 14.7% | 4.8% | 3.38 | 4.66 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 23 | 144 | 562 | 117 | 21 | 23 | 79% | 5.0 | 20.8% | 3.7% | 17.1% | 4.1% | 3.38 | 3.99 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 21 | 131 | 576 | 110 | 39 | 25 | 58% | 3.6 | 17.2% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 5.0% | 5.14 | 5.28 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 21 | 131 | 576 | 110 | 39 | 25 | 58% | 3.6 | 19.1% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 4.3% | 5.14 | 4.79 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 36 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 29 | 29 | 165 | 727 | 108 | 48 | 34 | 100% | 5.7 | 13.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.95 | 5.07 | — |
| 2024 | 36 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 29 | 29 | 165 | 727 | 108 | 48 | 34 | 100% | 5.7 | 14.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 5.95 | 5.34 | — |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 118 | 510 | 61 | 20 | 18 | 73% | 4.5 | 10.7% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 5.12 | 4.29 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 118 | 510 | 61 | 20 | 18 | 73% | 4.5 | 12.0% | 3.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 5.12 | 4.56 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 19 | 19 | 109 | 444 | 68 | 16 | 15 | 100% | 5.7 | 13.5% | 3.8% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 3.98 | 4.48 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 38 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 74 | 313 | 32 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 10.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 38 | MLB | SEA | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 10.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 38 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 183 | 757 | 100 | 33 | 26 | — | — | 13.2% | 4.4% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.76 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 38 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 7 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 10.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 24 | 150 | 635 | 64 | 39 | 25 | 100% | 6.3 | 10.0% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.31 | 5.54 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | SEA | 21 | 21 | 129 | 546 | 55 | 37 | 24 | 100% | 6.2 | 10.0% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.65 | 5.88 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | SEA | 18 | 18 | 111 | 470 | 47 | 35 | 22 | 100% | 6.2 | 10.0% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 5.99 | 6.21 | -1.1 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.31 | 5.54 | — |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.65 | 5.88 | — |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 5.99 | 6.21 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 3 | 149 | 682 | 107 | 45 | 28 | 5% | 2.3 | 15.7% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 6.34 | 4.86 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 4 | 200 | 915 | 144 | 60 | 38 | 5% | 2.2 | 15.7% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 6.34 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 290 | 208 | 1326 | 5628 | 837 | 299 | 185 | 72% | 4.6 | 14.9% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.32 | +16.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 31 | 200 | 849 | 126 | 45 | 28 | 72% | 4.6 | 14.9% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Casey Lawrence (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 10.3% | 5.4% | 3.4% | — | 5.84 | 10.0% | 3.3% | 391 | +0.66 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Lohse R 2025 · 5.53 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.53 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.98 | 211 | 56 |
| Tim Hudson R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 55 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.35 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 138 | 54 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.00 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 235 | 54 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2024 · 5.23 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.23 | 13.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.91 | 241 | 53 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.48 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.48 | 156 | 51 |
| Chris Smith R 2024 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.11 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 413 | 48 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.02 | 11.0% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 394 | 47 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 47 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.41 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.33 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.08 | 3.92 | 375 | 46 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2024 · 5.68 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.68 | 6.4% | 9.7% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.91 | 172 | 46 |
| Colby Lewis R 2024 · 4.70 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.70 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 45 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2025 · 5.90 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.90 | 16.3% | 11.2% | 5.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 407 | 42 |
| J.D. Martin R 2024 · 5.98 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.98 | 13.9% | 12.8% | 4.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 289 | 40 |
| Adam Wainwright R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.98 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .245 | 3.89 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 499 | -0.09 | 2.03 | 1,127 | 37 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2024 · 4.60 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.60 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 138 | 33 |
| Aaron Harang R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 32 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2024 · 5.36 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.36 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 237 | 30 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.15 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | .306 | 4.62 | 5.7% | -0.3% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.28 | 199 | 28 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 395 | 28 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 142 | 10.1% | 6.3% | 1.56 | 5.42 |
| Jered Weaver ('17) | 3 | 126 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 1.83 | 5.15 |
| Jordan Zimmermann ('19) | 5 | 142 | 17.2% | 5.2% | 1.44 | 5.06 |
| Bartolo Colon ('18) | 4 | 169 | 15.1% | 4.0% | 1.45 | 4.80 |
| Mike Pelfrey ('17) | 3 | 135 | 12.3% | 8.5% | 1.14 | 4.99 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Matt Cain ('17) | 3 | 91 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 1.51 | 5.58 |