Casey Lawrence — OGILVIE

Casey Lawrence P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 38 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION153 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.01

FIP5.25

K%10.0%

BB%4.7%

K-BB%5.3%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 168 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL7070

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1087.9

Whiff%

p1014.2%

p108.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.421

CT (2%)

SI (40%)

SL-1.1 (29%)

CH-1.1 (21%)

FB-1.3 (47%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	168	735	97	31	10	100%	6.2	10.4%	4.8%	5.6%	1.4%	4.56	3.57	—
2015	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	168	735	97	31	10	100%	6.2	13.2%	4.2%	9.0%	1.4%	4.56	3.27	—
2016	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	162	688	108	37	13	100%	5.8	13.3%	5.7%	7.6%	1.8%	4.17	3.67	—
2016	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	162	688	108	37	13	100%	5.8	15.7%	5.4%	10.3%	1.9%	4.17	3.50	—
2017	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	12	123	532	100	32	19	29%	3.0	17.7%	6.1%	11.6%	3.8%	4.84	4.49	+0.1
2017	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	12	123	532	100	32	19	29%	3.0	18.8%	6.0%	12.8%	3.6%	4.84	4.27	+0.4
2018	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	16	121	509	103	22	13	53%	4.0	18.1%	4.4%	13.7%	3.0%	4.08	3.77	+1.6
2018	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	16	121	509	103	22	13	53%	4.0	20.2%	4.3%	15.9%	2.6%	4.08	3.34	+2.3
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	14	86	345	80	17	12	56%	3.4	20.0%	5.2%	14.8%	3.7%	4.40	4.08	—
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	14	86	345	80	17	12	56%	3.4	23.2%	4.9%	18.3%	3.5%	4.40	3.65	—
2022	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	144	562	117	21	23	79%	5.0	18.6%	3.9%	14.7%	4.6%	3.38	4.55	+0.6
2022	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	23	144	562	117	21	23	79%	5.0	20.8%	3.7%	17.1%	4.1%	3.38	3.99	+1.6
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	21	131	576	110	39	25	58%	3.6	16.4%	6.2%	10.2%	4.9%	5.14	5.19	-0.4
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	21	131	576	110	39	25	58%	3.6	16.4%	6.2%	10.2%	4.9%	5.14	5.19	-0.4
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	21	131	576	110	39	25	58%	3.6	19.1%	6.8%	12.3%	4.3%	5.14	4.79	+0.2
2024	36	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	29	29	165	727	108	48	34	100%	5.7	12.3%	5.9%	6.4%	4.5%	5.95	5.28	—
2024	36	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	29	29	165	727	108	48	34	100%	5.7	12.3%	5.9%	6.4%	4.5%	5.95	5.28	—
2024	36	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	29	29	165	727	108	48	34	100%	5.7	14.9%	6.6%	8.3%	4.7%	5.95	5.34	—
2025	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	118	510	61	20	18	73%	4.5	10.2%	3.5%	6.6%	3.3%	5.12	4.48	+0.6
2025	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	118	510	61	20	18	73%	4.5	10.2%	3.5%	6.6%	3.3%	5.12	4.48	+0.6
2025	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	118	510	61	20	18	73%	4.5	12.0%	3.9%	8.0%	3.5%	5.12	4.56	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			65	2	142	651	104	43	27	3%	2.2	16.0%	6.6%	9.4%	4.1%	6.42	5.02	-0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	38	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	28	28	153	652	94	23	24	100%	5.5	12.0%	3.2%	8.8%	4.0%	4.81	4.71	—
YTD	38	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	28	28	153	652	94	23	24	100%	5.5	12.0%	3.2%	8.8%	4.0%	4.81	4.71	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	38	AAA RAW	PHI	28	28	153	652	94	23	24	100%	5.5	14.4%	3.5%	10.9%	3.7%	4.81	4.35	—
ROS	38	MLB MLE	PHI	2	2	14	61	6	3	2	100%	7.2	10.0%	4.7%	5.3%	3.7%	5.01	5.25	-0.1
ROS	38	MLB CTX	PHI	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	100%	1.0	10.0%	4.7%	5.3%	3.7%	5.01	5.25	-0.0
2026 TOT	38	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	168	713	100	26	26	—	—	14.0%	3.6%	10.4%	3.7%	4.83	4.76	+0.3
FULL	38	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	1	6	1	0	0	—	—	10.0%	4.7%	5.3%	3.7%	5.01	4.86	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	PHI	24	24	150	635	64	35	26	100%	6.3	10.0%	5.4%	4.6%	4.1%	5.35	5.58	-1.1
2028	40	MLB MLE	PHI	21	21	129	546	55	33	25	100%	6.2	10.0%	6.1%	3.9%	4.6%	5.69	5.92	-1.4
2027	39	MLB CTX	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.0%	5.4%	4.6%	4.1%	5.35	5.58	—
2028	40	MLB CTX	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.0%	6.1%	3.9%	4.6%	5.69	5.92	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	2	143	657	105	43	27	3%	2.2	15.9%	6.6%	9.3%	4.1%	6.40	4.86	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		91	3	200	918	147	60	38	3%	2.2	15.9%	6.6%	9.3%	4.1%	6.40	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		299	217	1371	5836	842	288	200	73%	4.6	14.4%	4.9%	9.5%	3.4%	4.66	4.39	-2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	32	200	851	123	42	29	73%	4.6	14.4%	4.9%	9.5%	3.4%	4.66	4.39	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Casey Lawrence (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	10.0%	4.7%	3.7%	—	5.74	10.0%	4.2%	280	+0.49	—	—	—
Kyle Lohse R 2016 · 4.97 FIP	37	SP	4.97	14.8%	6.0%	4.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	211	57
Tim Hudson R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	40	SP	4.41	12.2%	6.9%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	124	55
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	428	54
Logan Ondrusek R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	36	SP	4.34	19.2%	7.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	138	54
Jeremy Guthrie R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	37	SP	4.85	11.6%	8.6%	3.0%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	235	52
Sergio Mitre R 2019 · 4.54 FIP	38	SP	4.54	11.8%	6.5%	2.9%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	156	51
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2017 · 6.31 FIP	36	SP	6.31	12.5%	9.4%	5.6%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	360	48
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	413	48
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	46
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	46
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	46
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	46
Colby Lewis R 2016 · 4.67 FIP	36	SP	4.67	15.5%	5.9%	3.9%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	321	43
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	42
J.D. Martin R 2019 · 5.89 FIP	36	SP	5.89	13.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	289	40
Aaron Harang R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	37	SP	4.47	14.4%	6.4%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	172	33
Francisley Bueno L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	36	SP	4.44	11.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	138	32
Adam Wainwright R 2020 · 4.11 FIP	38	SP	4.11	20.6%	5.7%	3.7%	.245	3.99	17.8%	11.2%	499	-0.12	2.03	1,127	31
David Huff L 2021 · 6.26 FIP	36	SP-	6.26	14.5%	4.5%	7.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	158	30
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	30

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	152	10.0%	5.4%	1.57	5.32
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Justin Nicolino ('17)	1.0	67	9.8%	6.8%	1.07	4.65