Casey Lawrence
P
Tacoma Rainiers
+0.0
WAR
Age 38
RHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
AAA
ERA5.23
FIP5.00
xFIP4.86
SIERA4.75
K%14.0%
BB%5.9%
K-BB%8.0%
IP110
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF3030
CTRL6565
CMD4040
K†3030
FB Velo
p1087.9
Whiff%
p1014.2%
K%
p108.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.421
CT (2%)
SI (40%)
SL-1.1 (29%)
CH-1.1 (21%)
FB-1.3 (47%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 27 | 27 | 168 | 735 | 97 | 31 | 10 | 10.4% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 4.56 | 3.56 | +3.3 |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 28 | 28 | 162 | 688 | 108 | 37 | 13 | 13.3% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 4.17 | 3.65 | +3.0 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 41 | 12 | 123 | 532 | 100 | 32 | 19 | 17.7% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 4.84 | 4.41 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 30 | 16 | 121 | 509 | 103 | 22 | 13 | 18.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 3.76 | +2.1 |
| 2021 | 33 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 25 | 14 | 86 | 345 | 80 | 17 | 12 | 20.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.40 | 4.06 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 29 | 23 | 144 | 562 | 117 | 21 | 23 | 18.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.38 | 4.51 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 36 | 21 | 131 | 576 | 110 | 39 | 25 | 17.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.14 | 5.18 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 36 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 29 | 29 | 165 | 727 | 108 | 48 | 34 | 13.1% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 5.95 | 5.31 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 37 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 26 | 19 | 118 | 510 | 61 | 20 | 18 | 10.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.12 | 4.47 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 3 | 3 | 18 | 75 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 19.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 3.56 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 38 | MLB | SEA | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 46 | 28 | 17 | 10.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 5.44 | 5.38 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 38 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 128 | 539 | 63 | 31 | 19 | 11.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 5.31 | 5.12 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | SEA | 18 | 18 | 101 | 427 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 10.0% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 5.47 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 274 | 192 | 1236 | 5259 | 792 | 285 | 173 | 15.1% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.32 | +13.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 31 | 200 | 851 | 128 | 46 | 28 | 15.1% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.32 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Casey Lawrence (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.38 | 10.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% | — | 5.49 | 10.0% | 3.7% | 101 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.87 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.0% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.87 | 235 | 59 |
| Tim Hudson R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.40 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 124 | 57 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.54 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 156 | 54 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.56 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 183 | 53 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 53 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.51 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.23 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.28 | 4.03 | 375 | 52 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 38 | SW | 5.44 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 225 | 52 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.47 | 6.4% | 9.7% | 3.1% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 172 | 51 |
| Colby Lewis R 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 51 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.22 | 11.0% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 394 | 49 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.32 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 720 | 48 |
| Chris Smith R 2024 · 4.81 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 413 | 48 |
| J.D. Martin R 2024 · 5.87 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.87 | 13.9% | 12.8% | 4.2% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.85 | 289 | 48 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 6.46 FIP | 38 | SW | 6.46 | 11.9% | 12.5% | 5.1% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 145 | 47 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 37 | SP- | 5.76 | 16.3% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 407 | 46 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 44 |
| Pat Neshek R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.41 | 11.4% | 2.5% | 5.4% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.56 | 206 | 44 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 144 | 43 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 42 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma R 2024 · 6.12 FIP | 36 | SU | 6.12 | 12.5% | 9.4% | 5.3% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 360 | 42 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.