James Kaprielian
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 32
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 154 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 121
ERA5.34
FIP5.62
K%17.4%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%4.5%
ROS IP154
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1992.3
Whiff%
p4825.0%
K%
p3820.4%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
SL-1.2
CH-2.4
FB-3.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | GCL Yankees2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.57 | 3.87 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | GCL Yankees2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.57 | 3.96 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | 3 | 3 | 18 | 65 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.1% | 5.3% | 20.8% | 2.7% | 1.50 | 3.03 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | 3 | 3 | 18 | 65 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 33.8% | 4.6% | 29.2% | 1.5% | 1.50 | 1.88 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 16 | 68 | 277 | 75 | 16 | 8 | 84% | 3.6 | 20.9% | 6.9% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 3.18 | 4.07 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 16 | 68 | 277 | 75 | 16 | 8 | 84% | 3.6 | 27.1% | 5.8% | 21.3% | 2.9% | 3.18 | 3.13 | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 7.36 | 9.06 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 7.36 | 9.65 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 22 | 124 | 523 | 128 | 42 | 19 | 88% | 5.0 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 16.3% | 4.0% | 4.06 | 4.24 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 22 | 124 | 523 | 128 | 42 | 19 | 88% | 5.0 | 24.5% | 8.0% | 16.4% | 3.6% | 4.06 | 4.04 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 29 | 148 | 637 | 111 | 64 | 19 | 100% | 5.1 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.55 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 29 | 148 | 637 | 111 | 64 | 19 | 100% | 5.1 | 17.4% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.57 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 13 | 69 | 313 | 64 | 32 | 9 | 81% | 4.3 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 5.71 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 13 | 69 | 313 | 64 | 32 | 9 | 81% | 4.3 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 5.71 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 14 | 57 | 275 | 49 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 4.1 | 14.5% | 14.8% | -0.2% | 6.0% | 6.59 | 7.05 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 14 | 57 | 275 | 49 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 4.1 | 17.8% | 14.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.59 | 6.38 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 29 | 29 | 173 | 729 | 127 | 94 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.34 | 5.62 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 26 | 26 | 158 | 669 | 110 | 89 | 26 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.5% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.67 | 5.90 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 24 | 24 | 144 | 609 | 95 | 84 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.6% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 4.2% | 5.99 | 6.20 | -1.3 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 40 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.5% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.67 | 5.90 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 31 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.6% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 4.2% | 5.99 | 6.20 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 83 | 75 | 423 | 1819 | 353 | 192 | 64 | 90% | 5.1 | 19.4% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 4.72 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 36 | 200 | 860 | 167 | 91 | 30 | 90% | 5.1 | 19.4% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 110 | 97 | 490 | 2118 | 421 | 209 | 79 | 88% | 4.5 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 4.57 | 4.73 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 40 | 200 | 864 | 172 | 85 | 32 | 88% | 4.5 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 4.57 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| James Kaprielian (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.62 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 3.6% | — | 6.04 | 16.1% | 2.6% | 303 | +0.42 | — | — | — |
| Nate Long R 2023 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 78 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 70 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 12.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 277 | 68 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.07 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 4.9% | .313 | 4.18 | 21.5% | 14.8% | 424 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 869 | 68 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.69 | 14.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .289 | 5.63 | 12.3% | 2.7% | 74 | +0.94 | 4.69 | 261 | 67 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.12 | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .353 | 3.44 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 160 | -1.68 | 3.29 | 283 | 66 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.44 | 17.0% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 786 | 66 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.90 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 4.5% | .290 | 4.76 | 17.5% | 11.5% | 416 | -0.14 | 3.72 | 918 | 65 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 65 |
| David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 64 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.60 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 5.5% | .253 | 4.27 | 22.7% | 15.9% | 197 | -1.33 | 2.87 | 864 | 64 |
| Félix Hernández R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.93 | 18.2% | 8.6% | 4.2% | .278 | 5.62 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 72 | +0.69 | 3.65 | 682 | 63 |
| Cody Mincey R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.46 | 13.9% | 8.4% | 4.5% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.46 | 147 | 63 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.23 | 13.4% | 7.0% | 84 | +0.32 | 4.91 | 241 | 63 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.83 | 13.2% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.83 | 294 | 63 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.70 | 15.9% | 9.6% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.83 | 18.8% | 6.3% | 174 | +0.13 | 4.02 | 748 | 62 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.11 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.76 | 2.49 | 433 | 62 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.3% | 8.1% | 3.8% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 283 | 62 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 61 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.43 | 13.7% | 6.3% | 3.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 251 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 158 | 16.5% | 13.3% | 1.50 | 5.65 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |