Jake Faria — OGILVIE

Jake Faria P Worcester Red Sox

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 238 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.74

FIP4.81

K%20.6%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

SL-0.8

FB-1.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	150	585	159	52	6	92%	6.0	21.6%	10.0%	11.6%	1.3%	1.92	3.25	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	150	585	159	52	6	92%	6.0	27.2%	8.9%	18.3%	1.0%	1.92	2.54	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	151	620	157	68	12	100%	5.6	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	2.0%	3.99	3.88	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	151	620	157	68	12	100%	5.6	25.3%	11.0%	14.4%	1.9%	3.99	3.40	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	145	599	168	53	18	93%	5.4	26.4%	9.0%	17.3%	3.1%	3.28	3.73	+2.1
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	145	599	168	53	18	93%	5.4	28.0%	8.8%	19.2%	3.0%	3.28	3.49	+2.5
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	18	96	414	78	45	15	72%	3.9	18.4%	11.0%	7.4%	3.7%	5.14	4.96	-0.1
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	18	96	414	78	45	15	72%	3.9	18.8%	10.9%	8.0%	3.6%	5.14	4.91	-0.0
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	7	86	379	101	43	14	16%	1.9	24.1%	11.8%	12.3%	3.9%	4.50	4.71	-0.2
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	7	86	379	101	43	14	16%	1.9	26.6%	11.3%	15.3%	3.7%	4.50	4.37	+0.2
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	10	69	318	78	28	12	33%	2.3	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	4.3%	5.58	4.70	-0.1
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	10	69	318	78	28	12	33%	2.3	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	3.8%	5.58	4.31	+0.2
2022	29	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	12	9	43	206	39	27	9	75%	3.6	16.7%	13.8%	2.9%	5.5%	7.48	6.43	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	12	9	43	206	39	27	9	75%	3.6	18.9%	13.1%	5.8%	4.4%	7.48	5.87	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	9	63	297	56	40	10	41%	2.8	15.5%	11.4%	4.1%	3.9%	6.89	5.35	-0.6
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	9	63	297	56	40	10	41%	2.8	15.5%	11.4%	4.1%	3.9%	6.89	5.35	-0.6
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	9	63	297	56	40	10	41%	2.8	18.9%	13.5%	5.4%	3.4%	6.89	5.30	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			73	29	205	901	188	92	30	40%	2.8	20.9%	10.2%	10.7%	3.3%	4.87	4.51	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	BOS	1	1	5	21	4	2	1	100%	5.0	20.6%	10.4%	10.2%	3.2%	4.74	4.81	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	57	242	48	26	8	100%	6.4	19.7%	10.9%	8.8%	3.5%	4.96	5.11	-0.1
2028	35	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	51	217	41	25	8	100%	6.4	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	3.8%	5.25	5.45	-0.3
2027	34	MLB CTX	BOS	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	19.7%	10.9%	8.8%	3.5%	4.96	5.11	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	BOS	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	3.8%	5.25	5.45	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	30	209	916	191	94	31	41%	2.8	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	3.3%	4.88	4.46	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		71	28	200	878	183	90	30	40%	2.8	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	3.3%	4.88	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		213	128	804	3418	736	367	105	60%	3.8	21.5%	10.7%	10.8%	3.1%	4.22	4.33	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	32	200	851	183	91	26	60%	3.8	21.5%	10.7%	10.8%	3.1%	4.22	4.33	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Faria (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	20.6%	10.4%	3.2%	—	5.27	19.2%	8.1%	109	+0.46	—	—	—
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	69
Edwin Jackson R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	33	SP-	5.02	18.7%	9.5%	4.2%	.278	5.25	16.9%	6.9%	252	+0.23	3.77	521	69
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	67
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	67
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	66
Sam LeCure R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	32	SW	4.17	16.6%	6.5%	3.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	171	65
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	65
Brandon McCarthy R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	33	SP	4.84	22.5%	11.5%	4.0%	.288	3.82	19.0%	12.4%	171	-1.02	3.09	248	65
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	219	64
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	64
Jair Jurrjens R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	31	SP	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	63
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	62
Tyler Cloyd R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	32	SP	5.21	18.9%	9.5%	4.6%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	250	61
Kyle Lohse R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	36	SP-	4.77	16.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.309	4.97	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.20	4.77	211	60
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	60
Zach Neal R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	33	SP-	5.53	16.1%	5.7%	5.6%	.321	6.01	15.3%	9.3%	101	+0.48	4.24	732	60
Garrett Richards R 2021 · 4.47 FIP	33	SP-	4.47	18.6%	9.6%	3.2%	.328	3.17	19.5%	12.5%	43	-1.30	2.31	577	60
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	59
Brad Peacock R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	33	SP-	4.70	21.0%	9.8%	3.9%	.327	3.82	23.9%	13.3%	60	-0.88	2.97	533	58
Mickey Jannis R 2021 · 5.68 FIP	33	SP-	5.68	12.1%	11.8%	3.8%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	659	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	19.7%	10.9%	1.35	4.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58