Jake Faria
P
Worcester Red Sox
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 238 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 63 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.77
FIP4.84
K%20.7%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%10.0%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1992.3
Whiff%
p3523.2%
K%
p4120.8%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
SL-0.8
FB-1.4
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 150 | 585 | 159 | 52 | 6 | 92% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 1.4% | 1.92 | 3.30 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 150 | 585 | 159 | 52 | 6 | 92% | 6.0 | 27.2% | 8.9% | 18.3% | 1.0% | 1.92 | 2.54 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 151 | 620 | 157 | 68 | 12 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 1.8% | 3.99 | 3.77 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 151 | 620 | 157 | 68 | 12 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.3% | 11.0% | 14.4% | 1.9% | 3.99 | 3.40 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 145 | 599 | 168 | 53 | 18 | 93% | 5.4 | 26.4% | 9.0% | 17.3% | 3.1% | 3.28 | 3.73 | +2.8 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 145 | 599 | 168 | 53 | 18 | 93% | 5.4 | 28.0% | 8.8% | 19.2% | 3.0% | 3.28 | 3.49 | +3.2 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 18 | 96 | 414 | 78 | 45 | 15 | 72% | 3.9 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 5.14 | 5.02 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 18 | 96 | 414 | 78 | 45 | 15 | 72% | 3.9 | 18.8% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 7 | 86 | 379 | 101 | 43 | 14 | 16% | 1.9 | 24.1% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 4.1% | 4.50 | 4.81 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 7 | 86 | 379 | 101 | 43 | 14 | 16% | 1.9 | 26.6% | 11.3% | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.37 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 10 | 69 | 318 | 78 | 28 | 12 | 33% | 2.3 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 4.5% | 5.58 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 10 | 69 | 318 | 78 | 28 | 12 | 33% | 2.3 | 24.5% | 8.8% | 15.7% | 3.8% | 5.58 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 12 | 9 | 43 | 206 | 39 | 27 | 9 | 75% | 3.6 | 16.7% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 6.3% | 7.48 | 6.89 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 12 | 9 | 43 | 206 | 39 | 27 | 9 | 75% | 3.6 | 18.9% | 13.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 7.48 | 5.87 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 9 | 63 | 297 | 56 | 40 | 10 | 41% | 2.8 | 16.5% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 6.89 | 5.50 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 9 | 63 | 297 | 56 | 40 | 10 | 41% | 2.8 | 18.9% | 13.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 6.89 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 55 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.7% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 9 | 9 | 57 | 242 | 48 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.99 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 8 | 8 | 51 | 217 | 41 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.8% | 11.8% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 5.28 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.99 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 11.8% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 5.28 | 5.48 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 30 | 209 | 916 | 191 | 94 | 31 | 41% | 2.8 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.46 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 28 | 200 | 878 | 183 | 90 | 30 | 40% | 2.8 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 213 | 128 | 804 | 3418 | 739 | 372 | 108 | 60% | 3.8 | 21.6% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.38 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 32 | 200 | 851 | 184 | 93 | 27 | 60% | 3.8 | 21.6% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Faria (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 20.7% | 10.7% | 3.2% | — | 5.30 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 109 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 252 | +0.29 | 3.69 | 521 | 72 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 70 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2025 · 5.40 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.40 | 13.6% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 300 | 69 |
| Dillon Gee R 2024 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 380 | 68 |
| Tom Koehler R 2024 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 68 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.7% | 13.1% | 2.5% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 622 | 67 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 66 |
| Jerome Williams R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 65 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.88 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .288 | 3.86 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 171 | -1.02 | 3.16 | 248 | 65 |
| Chris Young R 2029 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 65 |
| Sam LeCure R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 171 | 65 |
| Jason Berken R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 63 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 62 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .327 | 4.03 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 60 | -0.25 | 2.88 | 533 | 62 |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.41 | 18.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | .328 | 3.22 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 43 | -1.19 | 2.34 | 577 | 62 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.94 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .322 | 4.80 | 15.9% | 9.5% | 147 | -0.14 | 3.84 | 567 | 62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 62 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 61 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.10 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 250 | 61 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.64 | 16.2% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 139 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 1.35 | 5.00 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |