Jake Faria
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.0
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 238 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
xFIP9.56
SIERA7.84
K%22.2%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.2%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4040
CMD4040
K†5050
FB Velo
p1992.3
Whiff%
p3523.2%
K%
p4120.8%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
SL-0.8
FB-1.4
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 25 | 23 | 150 | 585 | 159 | 52 | 6 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 1.3% | 1.92 | 3.25 | +3.5 |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 27 | 27 | 151 | 620 | 157 | 68 | 12 | 21.2% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 3.99 | 3.91 | +2.4 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 27 | 25 | 145 | 599 | 168 | 53 | 18 | 26.4% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 3.28 | 3.73 | +2.6 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 25 | 18 | 96 | 414 | 78 | 45 | 15 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 5.14 | 5.09 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 45 | 7 | 86 | 379 | 101 | 43 | 14 | 24.1% | 11.8% | 4.0% | 4.50 | 4.74 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 30 | 10 | 69 | 318 | 78 | 28 | 12 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 5.58 | 4.56 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 12 | 9 | 43 | 206 | 39 | 27 | 9 | 16.7% | 13.8% | 5.3% | 7.48 | 6.33 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 22 | 9 | 63 | 297 | 56 | 40 | 10 | 16.5% | 13.4% | 3.9% | 6.89 | 5.52 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 46 | 25 | 7 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 42 | 24 | 7 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.93 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 18.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 5.09 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 5.25 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 213 | 128 | 804 | 3418 | 739 | 372 | 105 | 21.6% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.35 | +8.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 32 | 200 | 851 | 184 | 93 | 26 | 21.6% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.35 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Faria (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 3.2% | — | 5.19 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 146 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 83 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 83 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.16 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .234 | 3.75 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.41 | 2.89 | 453 | 81 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 80 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 79 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 78 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 77 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 77 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.86 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.5% | .351 | 5.87 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +1.01 | 4.19 | 166 | 77 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 125 | 76 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .304 | 3.97 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 76 | +0.06 | 3.28 | 197 | 76 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 76 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 75 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 75 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2024 · 4.49 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.49 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 149 | 75 |
| Jake Petricka R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.57 | 19.1% | 8.0% | 3.8% | .340 | 3.19 | 18.3% | 10.4% | 24 | -1.38 | 3.04 | 252 | 74 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 74 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.29 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 4.3% | .277 | 4.81 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 198 | -0.48 | 3.88 | 885 | 74 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.88 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .288 | 3.97 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 171 | -0.91 | 3.15 | 248 | 74 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.63 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 5.47 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.84 | 4.63 | 172 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.