Derek True
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION13 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 121
ERA5.34
FIP5.34
K%16.4%
BB%12.5%
K-BB%3.9%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Astros | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 0.8 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 16.20 | 3.10 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Astros | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 0.8 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 16.20 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 97 | 440 | 107 | 40 | 14 | 72% | 3.9 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 5.92 | 4.76 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 97 | 440 | 107 | 40 | 14 | 72% | 3.9 | 24.3% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 5.92 | 4.00 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 11 | 61 | 296 | 65 | 31 | 11 | 65% | 3.6 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 6.60 | 4.71 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 11 | 61 | 296 | 65 | 31 | 11 | 65% | 3.6 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 6.60 | 4.83 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 9 | 0 | 13 | 66 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 6.92 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | HOU | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 49 | 37 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 12.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.34 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | HOU | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 12.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.34 | 5.34 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 83 | 362 | 67 | 43 | 11 | — | — | 18.4% | 11.9% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 5.59 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 16.4% | 12.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.34 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 52 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 12.1% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 5.22 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 52 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 5.17 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 51 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 5.18 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 23 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 12.1% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 5.22 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 33 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 5.17 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 39 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 5.18 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 0 | 126 | 534 | 95 | 64 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 12.0% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.19 | 4.82 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 150 | 101 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 12.0% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.19 | 4.82 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 53 | 30 | 173 | 810 | 148 | 90 | 26 | 57% | 3.3 | 18.3% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 6.33 | 4.71 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 35 | 200 | 935 | 171 | 104 | 30 | 57% | 3.3 | 18.3% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 6.33 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Derek True (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.34 | 16.4% | 12.5% | 3.0% | — | 5.20 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 206 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 86 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2027 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 85 |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.02 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .294 | 5.41 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 61 | +0.39 | 2.76 | 198 | 84 |
| Mike Franco R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.74 | 17.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .251 | 4.30 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 98 | -0.44 | 3.06 | 322 | 84 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 84 |
| Paul Clemens R 2028 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 84 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.26 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .321 | 3.22 | 25.9% | 16.8% | 60 | -2.04 | 2.63 | 213 | 82 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 82 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 18.5% | 13.8% | 2.5% | .308 | 4.47 | 22.9% | 7.2% | 102 | -0.15 | 3.72 | 283 | 81 |
| Robbie Peto R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 80 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .306 | 4.97 | 15.4% | 5.1% | 183 | +0.73 | 3.41 | 390 | 80 |
| Carlos Tavera R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.27 | 18.5% | 14.8% | 3.4% | .299 | 5.57 | 22.2% | 8.0% | 29 | +0.30 | 4.12 | 263 | 80 |
| André Rienzo R 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 80 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.19 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 4.0% | .267 | 3.90 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 112 | -1.29 | 3.53 | 383 | 79 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2024 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 79 |
| Marco Camarena R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.53 | 11.0% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .365 | 3.81 | 8.4% | 0.9% | 73 | -0.72 | 3.81 | 142 | 79 |
| Brad Allen R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 79 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 79 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 79 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .303 | 4.01 | 16.6% | 4.2% | 20 | -0.61 | 4.01 | 214 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 1.19 | 5.23 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |