Derek True — OGILVIE

Derek True P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION13 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.42

FIP5.42

K%16.4%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%3.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	2	1	2	8	3	2	0	50%	0.8	37.5%	25.0%	12.5%	0.0%	16.20	3.10	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	2	1	2	8	3	2	0	50%	0.8	37.5%	25.0%	12.5%	0.0%	16.20	3.10	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	2	1	2	8	3	2	0	50%	0.8	37.5%	25.0%	12.5%	0.0%	16.20	3.10	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	97	440	107	40	14	72%	3.9	18.5%	10.5%	8.0%	3.7%	5.92	4.90	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	97	440	107	40	14	72%	3.9	18.5%	10.5%	8.0%	3.7%	5.92	4.90	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	97	440	107	40	14	72%	3.9	24.3%	9.1%	15.2%	3.2%	5.92	4.00	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	61	296	65	31	11	65%	3.6	16.6%	12.0%	4.6%	3.3%	6.60	5.05	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	61	296	65	31	11	65%	3.6	16.6%	12.0%	4.6%	3.3%	6.60	5.05	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	11	61	296	65	31	11	65%	3.6	22.0%	10.5%	11.5%	3.7%	6.60	4.83	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	9	0	13	66	18	6	2	0%	1.4	22.1%	10.0%	12.1%	3.6%	6.92	4.50	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	9	0	13	66	18	6	2	0%	1.4	22.1%	10.0%	12.1%	3.6%	6.92	4.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	HOU	9	0	13	66	18	6	2	0%	1.4	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	3.0%	6.92	3.61	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	HOU	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	16.4%	12.5%	3.9%	3.2%	5.42	5.42	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	19	91	22	9	3	—	—	24.3%	10.0%	14.3%	3.1%	6.46	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	HOU	83	0	88	370	64	44	12	0%	1.1	17.4%	12.0%	5.3%	3.2%	5.28	5.27	-0.7
2028	27	MLB MLE	HOU	82	0	86	364	64	43	12	0%	1.1	17.7%	11.8%	5.9%	3.2%	5.22	5.23	-0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	HOU	80	0	84	353	63	41	12	0%	1.0	17.8%	11.7%	6.1%	3.3%	5.22	5.26	-0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	HOU	76	0	80	337	66	37	12	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.0%	8.6%	3.4%	5.14	5.10	-0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	HOU	72	0	75	317	61	36	11	0%	1.0	19.3%	11.3%	8.0%	3.6%	5.22	5.27	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	HOU	36	0	38	160	28	19	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	12.0%	5.3%	3.2%	5.28	5.27	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	HOU	52	0	55	232	41	27	7	0%	1.1	17.7%	11.8%	5.9%	3.2%	5.22	5.23	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	HOU	60	0	63	266	47	31	9	0%	1.1	17.8%	11.7%	6.1%	3.3%	5.22	5.26	-0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	HOU	62	0	65	274	54	30	9	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.0%	8.6%	3.4%	5.14	5.10	-0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	HOU	61	0	64	270	52	31	10	0%	1.0	19.3%	11.3%	8.0%	3.6%	5.22	5.27	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		273	0	286	1208	223	139	41	0%	1.0	18.5%	11.5%	7.0%	3.4%	5.21	4.84	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	97	29	0%	1.1	18.5%	11.5%	7.0%	3.4%	5.21	4.84	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		53	30	173	810	148	90	29	57%	3.3	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	3.5%	6.33	4.90	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	35	200	935	171	104	33	57%	3.3	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	3.5%	6.33	4.90	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Derek True (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.42	16.4%	12.5%	3.2%	—	5.25	17.6%	5.8%	258	-0.17	—	—	—
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	87
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	87
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	85
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	85
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	84
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	84
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	83
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	83
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	82
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	82
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.30	22.5%	7.6%	102	-0.46	3.74	283	81
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	81
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	80
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	80
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	80
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	80
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	79
Erich Uelmen R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	25	SW	5.32	17.9%	11.0%	4.3%	.267	3.90	19.6%	8.9%	112	-1.42	3.48	383	79
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	79
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	80	18.0%	11.7%	1.28	5.25
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99