Derek True
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
+0.0
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.4%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%10.0%
IP72
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF4040
CTRL4040
CMD4040
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Astros | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 16.20 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 18 | 97 | 440 | 107 | 40 | 14 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 5.92 | 4.91 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 17 | 11 | 61 | 296 | 65 | 31 | 11 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 6.60 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 4 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 58 | 36 | 10 | 19.1% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 77 | 334 | 65 | 39 | 10 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 5.32 | 4.73 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 60 | 35 | 10 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.98 | 4.97 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 72 | 303 | 61 | 34 | 9 | 20.1% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 71 | 298 | 60 | 33 | 9 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 59 | 33 | 9 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 4.95 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 56 | 32 | 9 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.98 | 5.01 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 54 | 31 | 9 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 5.05 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 51 | 30 | 9 | 19.4% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 5.13 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 48 | 29 | 9 | 19.1% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 5.22 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 45 | 28 | 9 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 5.32 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 41 | 27 | 8 | 18.4% | 12.2% | 3.7% | 5.43 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 38 | 26 | 8 | 18.0% | 12.4% | 3.8% | 5.56 | 5.64 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 30 | 165 | 773 | 141 | 87 | 26 | 18.2% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 6.37 | 4.82 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 36 | 200 | 935 | 171 | 105 | 31 | 18.2% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 6.37 | 4.82 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Derek True (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.06 | 19.1% | 11.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.94 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 214 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 96 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.08 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 3.84 | 21.6% | 13.4% | 73 | -0.24 | 3.84 | 206 | 90 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.84 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .321 | 2.58 | 27.5% | 18.5% | 46 | -2.26 | 2.58 | 199 | 89 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.16 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .273 | 2.95 | 22.8% | 15.6% | 188 | -2.21 | 2.59 | 302 | 89 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.87 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.07 | 120 | 89 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 89 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.99 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% | .272 | 5.30 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.31 | 4.99 | 105 | 89 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 89 |
| David Goforth R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 89 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 89 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 88 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 88 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.76 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 106 | 88 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.17 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 141 | 88 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 135 | 88 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.23 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .330 | 4.35 | 13.7% | 5.0% | 129 | +0.12 | 3.93 | 258 | 88 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .338 | 3.89 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.64 | 3.89 | 143 | 88 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 88 |
| Merrick Baldo R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.61 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 116 | 87 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.69 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 4.63 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.06 | 4.58 | 151 | 87 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.