Derek True

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	25	18	97	5.92	4.00	24.3%	9.1%	—	K 18.5% · BB 10.5% · FIP 4.90
2025	24	MIX2 levels	17	11	61	6.60	4.83	22.0%	10.5%	—	K 16.6% · BB 12.0% · FIP 5.05
2026	25	AAHOU	9	0	13	6.92	3.72	27.3%	9.1%	—	K 22.1% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.50
2027PROJ	26	MLBHOU	1	1	1	5.24	5.24	17.9%	12.3%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBHOU	3	3	18	5.17	5.18	18.4%	12.1%	0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBHOU	4	4	26	5.17	5.20	18.7%	12.0%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsCarlos Torres (age 26) · Colby Morris (age 25) · Nolan Sanburn (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 116

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%17.9%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%5.6%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	2	1	2	8	3	2	0	50%	0.8	37.5%	25.0%	12.5%	0.0%	16.20	3.10	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	2	1	2	8	3	2	0	50%	0.8	37.5%	25.0%	12.5%	0.0%	16.20	3.10	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	97	440	107	40	14	72%	3.9	18.5%	10.5%	8.0%	3.7%	5.92	4.90	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	97	440	107	40	14	72%	3.9	18.5%	10.5%	8.0%	3.7%	5.92	4.90	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	97	440	107	40	14	72%	3.9	24.3%	9.1%	15.2%	3.2%	5.92	4.00	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	61	296	65	31	11	65%	3.6	16.6%	12.0%	4.6%	3.3%	6.60	5.05	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	61	296	65	31	11	65%	3.6	16.6%	12.0%	4.6%	3.3%	6.60	5.05	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	11	61	296	65	31	11	65%	3.6	22.0%	10.5%	11.5%	3.7%	6.60	4.83	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	9	0	13	66	18	6	2	0%	1.4	22.1%	10.0%	12.1%	3.6%	6.92	4.50	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	9	0	13	66	18	6	2	0%	1.4	22.1%	10.0%	12.1%	3.6%	6.92	4.50	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	9	0	13	66	18	6	2	0%	1.4	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	3.0%	6.92	3.72	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	HOU	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	3.1%	5.24	5.24	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	HOU	8	8	48	204	38	25	6	100%	6.0	18.4%	12.1%	6.4%	3.2%	5.17	5.18	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	HOU	7	7	43	181	34	22	6	100%	6.1	18.7%	12.0%	6.7%	3.2%	5.17	5.20	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	HOU	3	3	18	76	14	9	2	100%	6.0	18.4%	12.1%	6.4%	3.2%	5.17	5.18	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	26	110	20	13	4	100%	6.5	18.7%	12.0%	6.7%	3.2%	5.17	5.20	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	44	185	34	22	6	100%	6.2	18.6%	12.0%	6.5%	3.2%	5.17	4.82	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	156	101	27	100%	6.1	18.6%	12.0%	6.5%	3.2%	5.17	4.82	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		53	30	173	810	148	90	29	57%	3.3	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	3.5%	6.33	4.90	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	35	200	935	171	104	33	57%	3.3	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	3.5%	6.33	4.90	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 13 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.50 (+0.89)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.810	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.64%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 60 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.05 (+0.55)K% 21.5% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.53%	—	×0.770	16.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×1.150	11.98%
HR / BF /BF	3.47%	÷1.297	×1.250	3.35%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 159).

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 76 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.38 (+0.96)K% 22.7% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.66%	—	×0.770	17.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.63%	—	×1.150	11.08%
HR / BF /BF	3.68%	÷1.073	×1.250	4.29%

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 22 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.93 (+0.94)K% 31.0% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.03%	—	×0.740	22.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×1.180	8.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷1.118	×1.300	1.34%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Derek True (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	17.9%	12.3%	3.1%	—	5.19	18.5%	6.5%	91	-0.05	—	—	—
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	84
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	82
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	82
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	81
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	81
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	81
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	80
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	80
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	80
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	79
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	79
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	79
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	79
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	78
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	78
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	78
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	77
Carlos Tavera R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	25	SW	5.12	18.3%	13.3%	3.4%	.299	5.43	21.9%	8.8%	29	+0.31	3.85	263	77
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	77
Joe Record R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	16.6%	15.3%	2.2%	.236	3.55	20.8%	9.1%	172	-1.27	2.64	280	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	50	18.3%	12.1%	1.22	5.20
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*