Jackson Finley

P Midland RockHounds

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 222 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	AOAK	25	15	83	5.62	3.29	24.4%	10.9%	—	K 18.0% · BB 12.8% · FIP 4.16
2026	25	MIX3 levels	18	17	74	4.03	3.77	25.2%	10.8%	—	K 20.9% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.97
2027PROJ	26	MLBOAK	1	1	1	4.62	4.62	21.1%	11.1%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBOAK	4	4	21	4.61	4.63	21.3%	11.0%	0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBOAK	5	5	31	4.65	4.69	21.4%	11.0%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Jake Walters (age 26) · Antonio Guzman (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%21.1%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	25	15	83	386	94	42	6	60%	3.3	18.0%	12.8%	5.2%	1.7%	5.62	4.16	—
2024	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	25	15	83	386	94	42	6	60%	3.3	18.0%	12.8%	5.2%	1.7%	5.62	4.16	—
2024	23	A RAW	Stockton Ports	25	15	83	386	94	42	6	60%	3.3	24.4%	10.9%	13.5%	1.6%	5.62	3.29	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	17	74	306	77	33	8	94%	4.1	20.9%	11.1%	9.9%	2.3%	4.03	3.97	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	17	74	306	77	33	8	94%	4.1	20.9%	11.1%	9.9%	2.3%	4.03	3.97	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	17	74	306	77	33	8	94%	4.1	25.2%	10.8%	14.4%	2.6%	4.03	3.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	OAK	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	21.1%	11.1%	10.0%	2.8%	4.62	4.62	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	57	241	51	27	7	100%	5.7	21.3%	11.0%	10.3%	2.8%	4.61	4.63	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	53	223	48	25	7	100%	5.9	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	3.0%	4.65	4.69	+0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	4	4	21	89	19	10	3	100%	5.2	21.3%	11.0%	10.3%	2.8%	4.61	4.63	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	OAK	5	5	31	131	28	14	4	100%	6.2	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	3.0%	4.65	4.69	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	53	223	48	25	6	100%	5.9	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.29	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	182	95	23	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.29	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		43	32	157	692	134	83	14	74%	3.7	19.3%	12.1%	7.2%	2.0%	4.87	4.07	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	41	200	882	170	106	17	74%	3.7	19.3%	12.1%	7.2%	2.0%	4.87	4.07	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 49 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.82 (+0.72)K% 26.2% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.15%	—	×0.810	21.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.77%	—	×1.100	11.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 18 IPFIP 3.32 → 4.34 (+1.02)K% 26.3% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.770	20.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.89%	—	×1.150	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.29%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.32 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 7 IPFIP 8.53 → 8.98 (+0.46)K% 17.1% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.14%	—	×0.860	14.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.14%	—	×0.900	15.43%
HR / BF /BF	8.57%	÷1.000	×1.100	9.43%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 8.53 → 8.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AStockton Ports · 83 IPFIP 3.28 → 4.16 (+0.88)K% 24.4% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.35%	—	×0.740	18.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.88%	—	×1.180	12.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷1.164	×1.300	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Finley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	21.1%	11.1%	2.8%	—	4.66	21.4%	10.3%	110	+0.04	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	83
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	81
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	80
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	79
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	79
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	79
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	78
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	77
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	76
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	76
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	76
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	76
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	76
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.42	16.1%	9.6%	113	+1.66	2.78	181	76
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	75
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	75
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	75
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	75
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	75
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	21.3%	11.0%	1.10	4.63
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*