Jackson Finley — OGILVIE

Jackson Finley P Midland RockHounds

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 222 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%20.1%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	25	15	83	386	94	42	6	60%	3.3	18.0%	12.8%	5.2%	1.7%	5.62	4.16	—
2024	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	25	15	83	386	94	42	6	60%	3.3	18.0%	12.8%	5.2%	1.7%	5.62	4.16	—
2024	23	A RAW	Stockton Ports	25	15	83	386	94	42	6	60%	3.3	24.4%	10.9%	13.5%	1.6%	5.62	3.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	16	15	67	271	71	27	5	94%	4.2	20.9%	11.1%	9.9%	2.3%	3.38	3.97	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	16	15	67	271	71	27	5	94%	4.2	20.9%	11.1%	9.9%	2.3%	3.38	3.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	OAK	4	3	18	76	20	6	2	75%	4.5	26.3%	7.9%	18.4%	2.6%	5.00	3.32	—
2026	25	AA RAW	OAK	12	12	49	195	51	21	3	100%	4.1	26.2%	10.8%	15.4%	1.5%	2.77	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	75	317	66	37	9	100%	6.2	20.8%	11.8%	9.0%	2.9%	4.82	4.80	+0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	74	312	65	36	9	100%	6.2	20.9%	11.7%	9.3%	2.9%	4.80	4.81	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	72	303	63	35	9	100%	6.0	20.9%	11.7%	9.2%	3.0%	4.83	4.87	+0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	68	289	60	34	9	100%	6.2	20.8%	11.9%	8.9%	3.2%	4.91	4.98	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	64	272	56	33	9	100%	5.9	20.4%	12.2%	8.3%	3.4%	5.06	5.16	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	33	139	29	16	4	100%	5.5	20.8%	11.8%	9.0%	2.8%	4.78	4.76	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	47	198	42	23	6	100%	5.9	20.9%	11.7%	9.3%	2.9%	4.76	4.77	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	54	228	48	27	7	100%	6.0	20.9%	11.7%	9.2%	3.0%	4.79	4.83	+0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	56	236	49	28	7	100%	6.2	20.8%	11.9%	8.9%	3.1%	4.87	4.94	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	55	232	47	28	8	100%	6.1	20.4%	12.2%	8.3%	3.3%	5.01	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	245	1035	215	123	31	100%	6.0	20.8%	11.8%	8.9%	3.0%	4.85	4.52	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	175	100	25	100%	6.0	20.8%	11.8%	8.9%	3.0%	4.85	4.52	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		41	30	150	657	126	80	13	73%	3.7	19.2%	12.1%	7.1%	1.9%	4.62	4.08	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	40	200	876	168	106	17	73%	3.7	19.2%	12.1%	7.1%	1.9%	4.62	4.08	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Finley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	20.1%	12.1%	2.9%	—	4.83	20.9%	9.2%	221	-0.06	—	—	—
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	84
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	84
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	83
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	82
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	82
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	81
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	80
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	80
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	80
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.70	18.8%	3.1%	77	+0.03	3.95	270	80
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	80
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	80
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	80
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	80
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	80
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.83	22.0%	10.4%	160	+0.06	3.75	326	79
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	69	20.7%	11.9%	1.18	4.88
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59