Jackson Finley P Midland RockHounds
Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 222 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 58 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120110vR 101
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
K%22.3%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
K: +1.4 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+1KBB: -1.0 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-1BBCONTACT: -0.3 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-0CONTACTSTAM: +14.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+15STAMTotal WAR: +1.54 (107 IP)+1.5WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.1+$2M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5555
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202423AStockton Ports2515833869442660%3.318.0%12.8%5.2%1.5%5.624.04—
202423AStockton Ports2515833869442660%3.324.4%10.9%13.5%1.6%5.623.29—
▸ 2026 Season
202625AAMidland RockHounds1110492045317491%4.420.7%9.3%11.3%2.4%4.073.85+0.4
ROS25MLBOAK10105824655257100%5.822.3%10.0%12.3%2.9%4.434.43+0.1
ROS25MLBOAK1114100100%1.022.3%10.0%12.3%2.8%4.394.39+0.0
2026 TOT25MLBOAK——1074501084211——24.0%9.2%14.7%2.4%4.274.17+1.5
2026 FULL25MLBOAK——15100——22.3%10.0%12.3%2.8%4.394.01+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202726MLBOAK10105824656247100%5.822.6%9.9%12.7%2.9%4.404.40+0.1
202827MLBOAK10105724255247100%5.722.7%9.9%12.8%2.9%4.414.43+0.1
202726MLBOAK442611025113100%6.522.6%9.9%12.7%2.8%4.364.36+0.1
202827MLBOAK663615234154100%6.022.7%9.9%12.8%2.9%4.374.39+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—11116326760268100%5.722.6%9.9%12.7%2.8%4.374.00+0.5
/ 200 IP—33332008441908225100%6.022.6%9.9%12.7%2.8%4.374.00+3.3
Career—3625132590112691169%3.718.9%11.6%7.3%1.8%5.053.98+2.2
/ 200 IP—55382008941691041669%3.718.9%11.6%7.3%1.8%5.053.98+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Jackson Finley (OGILVIE) —— 4.43 22.3%10.0%2.9%— 4.41 22.6%12.8%116 -0.02 ———
Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP 25 SP- 4.42 23.3%10.7%3.5%.225 — ——— — 4.42 102 81
Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP 25 SP- 3.81 19.2%5.7%2.9%.311 6.73 17.6%-0.7%51 +2.92 3.81 106 79
Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP 24 SP- 4.80 25.7%12.4%4.2%.296 3.43 18.7%10.3%40 -1.37 2.78 181 79
Andrew Politi R 2026 · 5.50 FIP 25 SP- 5.50 21.0%12.2%4.8%.320 4.16 23.1%13.2%138 -1.34 3.45 292 78
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.77 FIP 25 SP- 3.77 20.3%8.7%2.4%.309 3.63 21.4%13.2%123 -0.14 1.87 232 78
Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP 25 SP- 3.37 20.3%8.8%1.6%.278 5.10 15.8%6.7%73 +1.73 3.37 119 78
Brett Daniels R 2026 · 4.55 FIP 25 SP- 4.55 22.3%13.0%3.1%.357 4.75 18.9%2.6%77 +0.20 3.98 270 78
Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP 25 SP 4.39 23.0%10.5%3.5%.335 4.65 21.4%11.7%382 +0.26 3.67 509 77
Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP 25 SP- 4.98 17.6%11.2%3.6%.282 9.58 19.7%7.1%18 +4.60 4.98 105 77
Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP 25 SP- 4.55 16.7%6.5%3.7%.287 3.95 15.0%7.6%193 -0.60 3.53 289 77
Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP 25 SP- 4.28 16.0%10.5%2.2%.338 3.79 13.6%3.1%72 -0.49 3.79 143 77
Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP 26 SP- 4.24 17.5%10.9%2.3%.393 4.44 9.2%3.9%53 +0.20 4.24 166 77
Antonio Guzman R 2028 · 3.60 FIP 27 SP 3.60 18.8%11.2%1.2%.328 3.63 20.6%11.3%170 +0.03 3.22 254 76
Sean Mooney R 2025 · 4.82 FIP 24 SP- 4.82 24.7%13.5%3.8%.277 — ——— — 3.45 102 76
Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.51 FIP 25 SP- 3.51 18.2%9.8%1.3%.285 4.69 16.5%5.1%59 +1.18 3.51 123 76
Cole Percival R 2026 · 4.32 FIP 25 SP- 4.32 17.5%9.4%2.7%.296 3.59 20.5%9.5%36 -0.73 3.59 327 76
Braydon Tucker R 2026 · 3.24 FIP 25 SP- 3.24 18.3%7.1%1.4%.291 4.21 15.1%5.6%183 +0.97 3.24 289 75
Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.38 FIP 25 SP- 3.38 16.5%6.5%1.5%.296 4.26 15.9%8.6%90 +0.88 3.38 138 75
Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP 25 SP- 3.47 20.3%11.4%1.2%.286 3.51 23.2%10.9%71 +0.04 2.45 138 75
Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP 27 SP 3.94 19.5%12.6%1.6%.234 4.41 22.2%10.5%192 +0.47 3.39 382 75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION35822.5%9.9%1.124.41
Travis Wood ('17)38520.8%9.8%1.344.72
Randall Delgado ('17)37022.2%9.2%0.903.78
José Ruiz ('24)55222.2%10.4%1.414.41
Carlos Torres ('17)37120.1%9.0%0.973.77
Bud Norris ('18)47922.7%9.2%1.285.07
Brandon Maurer ('18)45321.5%8.8%1.065.20