Jackson Finley
P
Lansing Lugnuts
+0.7
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 222 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2028
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.3%
IP83
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 25 | 15 | 83 | 386 | 94 | 42 | 6 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 1.8% | 5.62 | 4.19 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 2 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 83 | 352 | 78 | 35 | 10 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 91 | 383 | 86 | 37 | 11 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.08 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 86 | 37 | 11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.40 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 17 | 94 | 395 | 89 | 38 | 12 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 17 | 94 | 398 | 89 | 38 | 12 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 87 | 37 | 12 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 83 | 36 | 12 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 79 | 36 | 11 | 21.8% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.59 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 75 | 35 | 11 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 78 | 31 | 11 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.51 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 73 | 30 | 11 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.62 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 67 | 29 | 10 | 22.5% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 62 | 28 | 10 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 16 | 91 | 417 | 78 | 52 | 8 | 18.6% | 12.4% | 1.9% | 5.56 | 4.14 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 35 | 200 | 920 | 172 | 115 | 18 | 18.6% | 12.4% | 1.9% | 5.56 | 4.14 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Finley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.41 | 22.4% | 12.8% | 278 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 89 |
| Ariel Peña R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 87 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 86 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 86 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .284 | 3.50 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 84 | -1.40 | 3.50 | 368 | 85 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 85 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 84 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 84 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 84 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2028 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 83 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.47 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .273 | 3.86 | 23.1% | 15.3% | 135 | -0.61 | 3.35 | 394 | 83 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 83 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 83 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 83 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.76 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.47 | 3.22 | 907 | 82 |
| Trent Sellers R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 82 |
| Hayden Minton R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 82 |
| Austin Cates R 2023 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 82 |
| Corey Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .295 | 5.02 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.25 | 3.08 | 267 | 82 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.29 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.85 | 15.7% | 4.1% | 181 | +0.56 | 3.52 | 395 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $7M | $16M | +$9M | ||