Nick Dean
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
K%19.5%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 17 | 91 | 373 | 86 | 26 | 6 | 77% | 4.1 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 3.57 | 4.00 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 17 | 91 | 373 | 86 | 26 | 6 | 77% | 4.1 | 23.1% | 7.0% | 16.1% | 1.6% | 3.57 | 2.92 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 65 | 274 | 75 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 4.3 | 21.6% | 7.8% | 13.8% | 3.3% | 5.43 | 4.05 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 65 | 274 | 75 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 4.3 | 27.4% | 6.9% | 20.4% | 2.6% | 5.43 | 3.07 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 14 | 5 | 47 | 192 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 36% | 3.3 | 21.9% | 6.3% | 15.6% | 1.2% | 3.66 | 2.73 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 117 | 488 | 110 | 36 | 11 | — | — | 22.5% | 7.4% | 15.1% | 2.3% | 4.22 | 3.85 | +2.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.5% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.23 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 59 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 59 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 58 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 55 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 60 | 254 | 50 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.93 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 26 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 44 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 44 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 44 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.86 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 38 | 230 | 972 | 196 | 87 | 32 | 97% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.35 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 170 | 76 | 28 | 97% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 51 | 37 | 202 | 839 | 166 | 64 | 20 | 73% | 4.0 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 2.4% | 4.19 | 3.73 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 37 | 200 | 831 | 165 | 63 | 20 | 73% | 4.0 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 2.4% | 4.19 | 3.73 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Dean (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.58 | 20.3% | 11.6% | 206 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 85 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 84 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 83 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 83 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 81 |
| Matt Ager R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 81 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.1% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .320 | 4.70 | 13.0% | 2.6% | 74 | +0.54 | 3.64 | 204 | 80 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 80 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 80 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.5% | .309 | 3.81 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.66 | 3.05 | 907 | 80 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .303 | 4.01 | 16.6% | 4.2% | 20 | -0.61 | 4.01 | 214 | 79 |
| Chase Centala R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 79 |
| Hector Noesí R 2029 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 79 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.94 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.09 | 3.46 | 274 | 79 |
| Forrest Snow R 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 79 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .296 | 3.59 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 36 | -0.73 | 3.59 | 327 | 79 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.50 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 4.8% | .320 | 4.16 | 23.1% | 13.2% | 138 | -1.34 | 3.45 | 292 | 78 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .273 | 4.29 | 23.1% | 14.9% | 172 | -0.12 | 3.36 | 432 | 78 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 77 |
| Deivi Villafana R 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 14.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 109 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 67 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 1.24 | 4.63 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |