Nick Dean

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1523ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	22	17	91	3.57	2.92	23.1%	7.0%	—	K 17.5% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.86
2025	24	MIX2 levels	15	15	65	5.43	3.07	27.4%	6.9%	—	K 21.6% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.00
2026	25	AACHC	14	5	47	3.66	2.14	27.1%	5.7%	—	K 21.9% · BB 6.3% · FIP 2.73
2027PROJ	26	MLBCHC	1	1	1	4.15	4.15	20.7%	7.3%	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	27	MLBCHC	3	3	16	4.13	4.14	21.0%	7.6%	0.2
2029PROJ46% MLB	28	MLBCHC	4	4	25	4.20	4.23	21.1%	7.9%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Erik Hiljus (age 28) · Nick Payero (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.15

FIP4.15

K%20.7%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%13.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	91	373	86	26	6	77%	4.1	17.5%	8.1%	9.4%	2.2%	3.57	3.86	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	91	373	86	26	6	77%	4.1	17.5%	8.1%	9.4%	2.2%	3.57	3.86	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	91	373	86	26	6	77%	4.1	23.1%	7.0%	16.1%	1.6%	3.57	2.92	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	65	274	75	19	7	100%	4.3	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	3.2%	5.43	4.00	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	65	274	75	19	7	100%	4.3	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	3.2%	5.43	4.00	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	65	274	75	19	7	100%	4.3	27.4%	6.9%	20.4%	2.6%	5.43	3.07	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	14	5	47	192	52	11	2	36%	3.3	21.9%	6.3%	15.6%	1.2%	3.66	2.73	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	14	5	47	192	52	11	2	36%	3.3	21.9%	6.3%	15.6%	1.2%	3.66	2.73	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	14	5	47	192	52	11	2	36%	3.3	27.1%	5.7%	21.4%	1.0%	3.66	2.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CHC	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	20.7%	7.3%	13.4%	2.7%	4.15	4.15	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	57	242	51	18	7	100%	5.7	21.0%	7.6%	13.4%	2.8%	4.19	4.20	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	54	228	48	18	7	100%	6.0	21.1%	7.9%	13.2%	2.9%	4.26	4.29	+0.7
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	3	3	16	68	14	5	2	100%	5.3	21.0%	7.6%	13.4%	2.7%	4.13	4.14	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	4	4	25	106	22	8	3	100%	6.2	21.1%	7.9%	13.2%	2.8%	4.20	4.23	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	40	170	36	13	5	100%	5.8	21.0%	7.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.17	3.82	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	179	65	25	100%	6.0	21.0%	7.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.17	3.82	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		51	37	202	839	166	64	19	73%	4.0	19.8%	7.6%	12.3%	2.3%	4.19	3.65	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	37	200	831	165	63	19	73%	4.0	19.8%	7.6%	12.3%	2.3%	4.19	3.65	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 47 IPFIP 2.11 → 2.73 (+0.62)K% 27.1% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.08%	—	×0.810	21.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.73%	—	×1.100	6.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.25%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.11 → 2.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 32 IPFIP 3.41 → 4.43 (+1.02)K% 26.3% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.28%	—	×0.810	21.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.30%	—	×1.100	8.03%
HR / BF /BF	2.92%	÷0.911	×1.200	3.85%

Result: FIP 3.41 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 33 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.56 (+0.83)K% 28.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.47%	—	×0.770	21.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.57%	—	×1.150	7.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷1.106	×1.250	2.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 64 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.50 (+0.94)K% 18.7% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.66%	—	×0.770	14.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.34%	—	×1.150	7.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.24%	÷0.909	×1.250	3.08%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 27 IPFIP 1.29 → 2.24 (+0.95)K% 34.3% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.29%	—	×0.740	25.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×1.180	10.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.908	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 1.29 → 2.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Dean (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.24	21.0%	13.3%	111	+0.09	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	88
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	86
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	83
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	81
David Phelps R 2013 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	21.0%	9.0%	2.0%	.314	3.56	21.5%	13.3%	312	-0.01	2.50	672	79
Whit Mayberry R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	26	SP-	3.54	16.2%	4.3%	2.3%	.267	2.64	12.3%	7.7%	11	-0.90	2.64	140	79
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	78
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.82	13.1%	3.7%	116	+0.21	2.84	310	78
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	78
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	77
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	77
Brad Lincoln R 2011 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP-	3.78	13.7%	5.7%	2.1%	.301	4.23	22.3%	13.9%	120	+0.45	3.78	280	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	76
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	76
Kyle Smith R 2017 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP-	3.31	15.2%	5.7%	1.4%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	76
Jeremy Hefner R 2012 · 3.56 FIP	26	SP-	3.56	15.2%	4.2%	2.2%	.316	4.33	17.8%	11.9%	131	+0.77	3.56	322	76
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	75
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	75
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	75
Kutter Crawford R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP-	4.47	21.9%	7.7%	4.1%	.316	4.15	24.1%	17.4%	313	-0.32	3.30	741	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	20.9%	7.6%	1.08	4.20
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*