Nick Dean
P
Knoxville Smokies
+0.5
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%13.1%
IP73
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 22 | 17 | 91 | 373 | 86 | 26 | 6 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.2% | 3.57 | 3.83 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 15 | 15 | 65 | 274 | 75 | 19 | 7 | 21.6% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 5.43 | 3.99 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 3 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 11 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 7.56 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 67 | 26 | 9 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 82 | 346 | 78 | 29 | 10 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 3.92 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 68 | 26 | 9 | 22.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.35 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 68 | 26 | 9 | 22.1% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 72 | 303 | 67 | 26 | 9 | 22.2% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 65 | 26 | 9 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.42 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 63 | 25 | 9 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 60 | 25 | 9 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 57 | 24 | 9 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 53 | 24 | 9 | 21.0% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 50 | 23 | 8 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 46 | 22 | 8 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 42 | 21 | 8 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 40 | 33 | 164 | 684 | 135 | 55 | 18 | 19.8% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 3.86 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 40 | 200 | 836 | 165 | 67 | 22 | 19.8% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 3.86 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Dean (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.36 | 22.1% | 13.5% | 218 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 92 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 92 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 91 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 90 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 90 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.40 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .293 | 5.06 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.66 | 3.40 | 258 | 90 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 90 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 90 |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.65 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.72 | 3.31 | 125 | 89 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 88 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 156 | -0.11 | 2.79 | 280 | 88 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 88 |
| Casey Cobb R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.52 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .261 | 5.56 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +2.04 | 3.52 | 191 | 87 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.95 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 174 | 87 |
| Héctor Neris R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 87 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.08 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 3.84 | 21.6% | 13.4% | 73 | -0.24 | 3.84 | 206 | 87 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.90 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .311 | 6.77 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.87 | 3.90 | 106 | 87 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 86 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 3.0% | .331 | 4.32 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 122 | +0.00 | 3.48 | 290 | 86 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2024 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 278 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Arb-1 | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2033 | Arb-2 | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $9M | +$5M | ||