Nick Dean — OGILVIE

Nick Dean P Knoxville Smokies

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%19.5%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—30

STUF—45

CTRL—50

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	91	373	86	26	6	77%	4.1	17.5%	8.1%	9.4%	2.2%	3.57	3.86	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	91	373	86	26	6	77%	4.1	17.5%	8.1%	9.4%	2.2%	3.57	3.86	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	91	373	86	26	6	77%	4.1	23.1%	7.0%	16.1%	1.6%	3.57	2.92	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	65	274	75	19	7	100%	4.3	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	3.2%	5.43	4.00	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	65	274	75	19	7	100%	4.3	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	3.2%	5.43	4.00	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	65	274	75	19	7	100%	4.3	27.4%	6.9%	20.4%	2.6%	5.43	3.07	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	14	5	47	192	52	11	2	36%	3.3	21.9%	6.3%	15.6%	1.2%	3.66	2.73	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	14	5	47	192	52	11	2	36%	3.3	21.9%	6.3%	15.6%	1.2%	3.66	2.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	CHC	14	5	47	192	52	11	2	36%	3.3	27.1%	5.7%	21.4%	1.0%	3.66	2.11	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CHC	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	19.5%	8.0%	11.5%	3.0%	4.50	4.50	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	53	217	57	13	3	—	—	26.2%	6.0%	20.2%	1.3%	3.76	2.93	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	82	345	69	27	10	100%	5.8	20.0%	8.0%	12.0%	3.0%	4.46	4.45	+0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	80	339	68	27	10	100%	6.2	20.1%	8.0%	12.1%	3.1%	4.46	4.47	+0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	78	329	73	24	10	100%	6.0	22.1%	7.3%	14.7%	3.2%	4.35	4.28	+0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	74	315	69	24	10	100%	6.2	21.9%	7.6%	14.3%	3.3%	4.38	4.41	+0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	70	296	64	23	10	100%	5.8	21.5%	7.9%	13.6%	3.5%	4.50	4.58	+0.3
2032	31	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	65	276	58	23	10	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.3%	12.9%	3.7%	4.67	4.79	+0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	36	152	30	12	4	100%	6.0	20.0%	8.0%	12.0%	2.9%	4.40	4.39	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	51	215	43	17	6	100%	6.4	20.1%	8.0%	12.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.41	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	59	249	55	18	8	100%	5.9	22.1%	7.3%	14.7%	3.0%	4.29	4.22	+0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	61	258	56	20	8	100%	6.1	21.9%	7.6%	14.3%	3.2%	4.31	4.34	+0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	60	253	55	20	9	100%	6.0	21.5%	7.9%	13.6%	3.4%	4.43	4.51	+0.2
2032	31	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	58	245	52	20	9	100%	5.8	21.1%	8.3%	12.9%	3.6%	4.59	4.71	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	54	325	1371	291	108	44	100%	6.0	21.2%	7.8%	13.4%	3.2%	4.40	4.05	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	179	67	27	100%	6.0	21.2%	7.8%	13.4%	3.2%	4.40	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		51	37	202	839	166	64	19	73%	4.0	19.8%	7.6%	12.3%	2.3%	4.19	3.65	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	37	200	831	165	63	19	73%	4.0	19.8%	7.6%	12.3%	2.3%	4.19	3.65	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Dean (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	19.5%	8.0%	3.0%	—	4.40	20.7%	12.9%	240	-0.10	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	87
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	85
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	84
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	84
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	84
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	83
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	83
Jason Forjet R 2015 · 3.36 FIP	25	SP-	3.36	17.0%	5.3%	1.9%	.290	4.48	15.9%	10.4%	102	+1.12	3.36	197	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	83
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	81
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	81
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	81
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	80
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.89	16.8%	8.8%	186	+1.91	3.98	418	80
Carlos Frías R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	14.1%	7.2%	2.2%	.320	4.85	13.0%	2.6%	74	+0.84	3.58	204	80
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	80
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	79
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	79
Buck Farmer R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	19.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.309	3.78	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.51	3.16	907	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	74	20.9%	7.9%	1.25	4.47
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86