Kutter Crawford
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.6
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 30
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 1.0 · 2027
ERA4.46
FIP4.61
xFIP4.35
SIERA4.09
K%23.5%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%16.3%
IP168
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL5555
CMD5555
K†5555
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p5025.3%
K%
p5523.1%
xwOBA vs
p550.307
CT+5.0 (32%)
CU (7%)
SL-2.5 (18%)
FB-4.7 (34%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 27 | 27 | 144 | 607 | 157 | 48 | 6 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 1.4% | 3.26 | 3.40 | +3.1 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 19 | 19 | 88 | 385 | 100 | 45 | 7 | 20.2% | 13.2% | 2.1% | 3.57 | 4.24 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 21 | 20 | 97 | 394 | 133 | 22 | 13 | 29.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.66 | 3.37 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 27 | 16 | 102 | 445 | 100 | 34 | 17 | 21.9% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 5.40 | 4.40 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 32 | 23 | 132 | 539 | 139 | 36 | 18 | 25.6% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 4.01 | 3.75 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 33 | 33 | 184 | 759 | 175 | 51 | 34 | 23.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.36 | 4.60 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | 15.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 84 | 354 | 81 | 26 | 14 | 22.9% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 4.42 | 4.64 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 87 | 370 | 86 | 27 | 17 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 4.79 | 4.48 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 29 | 29 | 162 | 682 | 152 | 50 | 28 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 4.62 | 4.75 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 28 | 28 | 155 | 655 | 142 | 49 | 27 | 21.7% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 4.77 | 4.86 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 27 | 148 | 625 | 132 | 48 | 26 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 4.90 | 4.99 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 26 | 26 | 141 | 594 | 121 | 47 | 26 | 20.3% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 5.04 | 5.13 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 133 | 560 | 110 | 45 | 25 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 5.18 | 5.28 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 124 | 524 | 99 | 44 | 24 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 5.34 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 160 | 139 | 749 | 3145 | 725 | 252 | 107 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.22 | 4.03 | +10.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 37 | 200 | 839 | 194 | 67 | 29 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.22 | 4.03 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kutter Crawford (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 22.9% | 7.2% | 4.0% | — | 4.86 | 21.7% | 14.2% | 465 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 63 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.16 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .265 | 3.45 | 17.8% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.71 | 3.45 | 315 | 62 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 61 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 61 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 60 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.25 | 4.10 | 133 | 60 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 60 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 262 | 60 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 58 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.94 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.95 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.01 | 3.94 | 567 | 58 |
| Tim Adleman R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.33 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.0% | .276 | 4.33 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -1.00 | 3.64 | 605 | 58 |
| Ervin Santana R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 57 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.36 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.4% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 57 |
| Dillon Gee R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.15 | 16.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | .302 | 3.80 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 127 | -1.35 | 3.68 | 380 | 57 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.28 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 327 | 56 |
| Michael Brady R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.31 | 15.7% | 12.0% | 55 | -0.50 | 3.08 | 333 | 56 |
| Aaron Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.70 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 3.9% | .291 | 3.33 | 24.6% | 19.0% | 112 | -1.37 | 2.75 | 902 | 55 |
| Leo Medrano R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.75 | 14.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | .354 | 4.34 | 11.0% | 3.7% | 113 | +0.59 | 3.75 | 222 | 54 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.77 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.86 | 3.77 | 264 | 54 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 54 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.