Kutter Crawford

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AAA peak 1.2 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAASPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX2 levels	32	23	132	4.01	3.58	25.8%	6.7%	2.9	K 25.6% · BB 6.8% · FIP 3.62
2024	28	MLBBOS	33	33	184	4.36	4.43	23.1%	6.7%	2.1
2026	30	AAABOS	1	1	3	15.00	13.77	31.2%	6.2%	—	K 31.2% · BB 6.2% · FIP 11.54
2027PROJ	31	MLBBOS	8	8	46	4.36	4.50	22.9%	7.9%	0.5
2028PROJ	32	MLBBOS	23	23	138	4.60	4.76	22.1%	8.3%	1.0
2029PROJ	33	MLBBOS	19	19	116	4.86	5.04	21.2%	8.8%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%55

xwOBA vs55

FB Velo23

CompsTim Adleman (age 31) · Jarrett Grube (age 33) · Jose Samayoa (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.36

FIP4.50

K%22.9%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%15.0%

Proj IP103

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p5025.3%

p5523.1%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	144	607	157	48	6	100%	5.3	19.3%	9.3%	10.1%	1.4%	3.26	3.41	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	144	607	157	48	6	100%	5.3	25.9%	7.9%	18.0%	1.0%	3.26	2.46	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	88	385	100	45	7	100%	4.6	20.2%	13.2%	7.0%	2.2%	3.57	4.25	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	88	385	100	45	7	100%	4.6	26.0%	11.7%	14.3%	1.8%	3.57	3.39	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	97	394	133	22	13	95%	4.6	29.1%	5.6%	23.5%	3.5%	4.66	3.30	+2.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	20	97	394	133	22	13	95%	4.6	33.8%	5.6%	28.2%	3.3%	4.66	2.78	+3.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	16	102	445	100	34	17	59%	3.8	21.9%	7.7%	14.1%	4.1%	5.40	4.47	+1.1
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	16	102	445	100	34	17	59%	3.8	22.5%	7.6%	14.8%	3.8%	5.40	4.31	+1.3
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	23	132	539	139	36	18	72%	4.1	25.6%	6.8%	18.8%	3.3%	4.01	3.62	+2.8
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	23	132	539	139	36	18	72%	4.1	25.8%	6.7%	19.1%	3.3%	4.01	3.58	+2.9
2024	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	33	33	184	759	175	51	34	100%	5.6	23.1%	6.7%	16.3%	4.6%	4.36	4.53	+1.9
2024	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	33	33	184	759	175	51	34	100%	5.6	23.1%	6.7%	16.3%	4.6%	4.36	4.53	+1.9
2024	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	33	33	184	759	175	51	34	100%	5.6	23.1%	6.7%	16.3%	4.5%	4.36	4.43	+2.1
2026	30	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	1	1	3	16	5	1	3	100%	3.0	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	18.8%	15.00	11.54	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	1	1	3	16	5	1	3	100%	3.0	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	18.8%	15.00	11.54	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	1	1	3	16	5	1	3	100%	3.0	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	18.8%	15.00	13.77	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			86	69	392	1633	389	117	64	80%	4.6	23.8%	7.2%	16.7%	3.9%	4.56	4.13	+5.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	BOS	8	8	46	194	44	15	7	100%	5.8	22.9%	7.9%	15.0%	3.6%	4.36	4.50	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	BOS	23	23	138	583	129	48	22	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.3%	13.8%	3.8%	4.60	4.76	+1.0
2029	33	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	116	489	104	43	20	100%	6.1	21.2%	8.8%	12.5%	4.1%	4.86	5.04	+0.5
2030	34	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	97	409	83	38	18	100%	6.1	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	4.4%	5.15	5.34	+0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	BOS	23	23	138	583	129	48	22	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.3%	13.8%	3.8%	4.60	4.76	+1.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	BOS	19	19	116	490	104	43	20	100%	6.1	21.2%	8.8%	12.5%	4.1%	4.86	5.04	+0.5
2030	34	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	97	410	83	38	18	100%	6.1	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	4.4%	5.15	5.34	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		144	127	743	3113	705	246	124	88%	5.2	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	4.0%	4.69	4.38	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	34	200	838	190	66	33	88%	5.1	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	4.0%	4.69	4.38	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		160	139	749	3145	725	252	105	87%	4.7	23.1%	8.0%	15.0%	3.3%	4.22	3.99	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	37	200	839	194	67	28	87%	4.7	23.1%	8.0%	15.0%	3.3%	4.22	3.99	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 24 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.17 (+0.67)K% 20.7% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.72%	—	×0.880	18.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.41%	—	×1.050	5.68%
HR / BF /BF	4.50%	÷0.939	×1.100	5.27%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 48 IPFIP 2.62 → 2.77 (+0.15)K% 32.1% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.06%	—	×0.880	28.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.18%	—	×1.050	7.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.39%	÷1.318	×1.100	2.00%

Result: FIP 2.62 → 2.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 46 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.94 (+1.38)K% 37.2% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.21%	—	×0.810	30.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.91%	—	×1.100	3.20%
HR / BF /BF	4.07%	÷0.900	×1.200	5.43%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Salem Red Sox · 69 IPFIP 3.11 → 3.96 (+0.84)K% 25.9% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.770	19.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.10%	—	×1.150	11.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.080	×1.250	1.95%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.11 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 19 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.26 (+0.96)K% 26.1% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.14%	—	×0.810	21.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.05%	—	×1.100	18.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.953	×1.200	2.86%

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AGreenville Drive · 112 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.57 (+1.01)K% 25.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.37%	—	×0.740	18.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.19%	—	×1.180	8.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷0.923	×1.300	1.79%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Salem Red Sox · 31 IPFIP 2.09 → 2.83 (+0.73)K% 27.6% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.61%	—	×0.770	21.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.45%	—	×1.150	12.01%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.936	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.09 → 2.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kutter Crawford (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	5.01	21.3%	12.6%	351	+0.51	—	—	—
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	75
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	70
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	69
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	67
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	65
Scott Richmond R 2009 · 5.11 FIP	29	SP	5.11	19.2%	9.5%	4.4%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	166	65
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	65
Mike Fiers R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	18.5%	5.8%	3.7%	.308	4.96	19.2%	12.2%	510	+0.66	2.83	1,140	65
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	64
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 2012 · 5.55 FIP	31	SP	5.55	19.1%	9.3%	5.2%	.329	3.83	21.1%	9.5%	122	-1.72	3.77	790	63
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	63
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,260	63
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	63
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	748	62
Manuel Flores R 2017 · 3.46 FIP	31	SP	3.46	15.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.305	4.32	17.1%	9.7%	122	+0.86	3.46	515	62
Leo Medrano R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	14.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.354	4.34	11.0%	3.7%	113	+0.58	3.76	222	62
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	62
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	61
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	61
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	123	22.7%	7.9%	1.52	4.65
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.1	138	21.3%	7.8%	1.48	4.52
Brent Strom ('72-'77, 0 WAR*)	2.5	125	19.3%*	8.2%*	1.53*	4.78*
Andrew Heaney ('25)	5.7	103	23.8%	7.0%	1.58	4.57
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.6	130	21.9%	7.3%	1.61	4.74
Dennis Bennett ('62-'68, 7 WAR*)	4.3	123	19.8%*	8.1%*	1.41*	4.40*
Mark Gardner ('89-'01, 7 WAR*)	8.8	136	19.6%*	8.0%*	1.44*	4.84*