Kutter Crawford — OGILVIE

Kutter Crawford P Worcester Red Sox

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AAA peak 1.5 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 171 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.35

FIP4.52

K%23.2%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%16.3%

ROS IP171

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 171 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL6055

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p5025.3%

p5523.1%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

CT+5.0 (32%)

CU (7%)

SL-2.5 (18%)

FB-4.7 (34%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	144	607	157	48	6	100%	5.3	19.3%	9.3%	10.1%	1.4%	3.26	3.41	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	144	607	157	48	6	100%	5.3	25.9%	7.9%	18.0%	1.0%	3.26	2.46	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	88	385	100	45	7	100%	4.6	20.2%	13.2%	7.0%	2.2%	3.57	4.25	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	88	385	100	45	7	100%	4.6	26.0%	11.7%	14.3%	1.8%	3.57	3.39	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	97	394	133	22	13	95%	4.6	29.1%	5.6%	23.5%	3.5%	4.66	3.30	+1.9
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	20	97	394	133	22	13	95%	4.6	33.8%	5.6%	28.2%	3.3%	4.66	2.78	+2.6
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	16	102	445	100	34	17	59%	3.8	21.9%	7.7%	14.1%	4.1%	5.40	4.47	+0.5
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	16	102	445	100	34	17	59%	3.8	22.5%	7.6%	14.8%	3.8%	5.40	4.31	+0.7
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	23	132	539	139	36	18	72%	4.1	25.6%	6.8%	18.8%	3.3%	4.01	3.62	+2.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	23	132	539	139	36	18	72%	4.1	25.6%	6.8%	18.8%	3.3%	4.01	3.62	+2.0
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	23	132	539	139	36	18	72%	4.1	25.8%	6.7%	19.1%	3.3%	4.01	3.58	+2.1
2024	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	33	33	184	759	175	51	34	100%	5.6	23.1%	6.7%	16.3%	4.6%	4.36	4.53	+0.8
2024	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	33	33	184	759	175	51	34	100%	5.6	23.1%	6.7%	16.3%	4.6%	4.36	4.53	+0.8
2024	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	33	33	184	759	175	51	34	100%	5.6	23.1%	6.7%	16.3%	4.5%	4.36	4.43	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			86	69	392	1633	389	117	64	80%	4.6	23.8%	7.2%	16.7%	3.9%	4.56	4.13	+3.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	1	1	3	16	5	1	3	100%	3.0	—	—	—	—	15.00	—	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	1	1	3	16	5	1	3	100%	3.0	—	—	—	—	15.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	BOS	1	1	3	16	5	1	3	100%	3.0	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	18.8%	15.00	11.54	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	BOS	27	27	160	673	151	48	28	100%	5.9	22.4%	7.2%	15.2%	4.1%	4.59	4.75	+0.3
2028	32	MLB MLE	BOS	25	25	148	623	135	47	27	100%	5.9	21.6%	7.6%	14.0%	4.4%	4.84	5.01	-0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	BOS	23	23	135	571	119	46	26	100%	5.9	20.8%	8.0%	12.7%	4.6%	5.11	5.29	-0.6
2027	31	MLB CTX	BOS	27	27	160	676	151	49	28	100%	5.9	22.4%	7.2%	15.2%	4.1%	4.59	4.75	+0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	BOS	25	25	148	625	135	47	27	100%	5.9	21.6%	7.6%	14.0%	4.4%	4.84	5.01	-0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	BOS	22	22	135	570	118	46	26	100%	6.1	20.8%	8.0%	12.7%	4.6%	5.11	5.29	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		160	143	835	3500	793	258	145	89%	5.2	22.7%	7.4%	15.3%	4.2%	4.71	4.40	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	34	200	839	190	62	35	89%	5.2	22.7%	7.4%	15.3%	4.2%	4.71	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		160	139	749	3145	725	252	105	87%	4.7	23.1%	8.0%	15.0%	3.3%	4.22	3.99	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	37	200	839	194	67	28	87%	4.7	23.1%	8.0%	15.0%	3.3%	4.22	3.99	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kutter Crawford (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	23.2%	6.8%	3.9%	—	5.00	21.6%	14.1%	442	+0.48	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,146	69
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,296	69
Tom Koehler R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.66	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.28	4.38	474	69
Jhoulys Chacín R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	19.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.244	5.07	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.36	3.71	887	67
Chris Bassitt R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	30	SP	4.20	23.0%	7.7%	3.8%	.258	3.35	23.2%	16.9%	402	-0.85	3.02	1,554	66
Tanner Roark R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	21.4%	7.6%	3.0%	.294	4.48	20.3%	13.2%	393	+0.60	3.13	942	65
Lance Lynn R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	19.7%	9.4%	3.7%	.237	3.25	25.9%	17.8%	449	-1.43	2.85	1,390	63
Michael Pineda R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	30	SP	3.79	23.3%	4.5%	3.8%	.288	4.20	18.0%	13.4%	208	+0.41	2.00	786	63
Ian Kennedy R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP	4.22	24.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.293	4.94	21.1%	13.0%	469	+0.72	2.88	864	62
Jason Hammel R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	32	SP	3.54	24.2%	5.1%	3.4%	.282	4.31	18.4%	11.9%	474	+0.77	3.54	645	61
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	61
Jesse Chavez R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	31	SP	3.87	20.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.309	4.29	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.42	2.03	804	60
Iván Nova R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	30	SP	4.43	16.7%	4.3%	4.0%	.294	4.67	15.0%	9.6%	367	+0.24	4.03	810	60
Trevor Cahill R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	30	SP	3.37	22.7%	9.8%	1.7%	.268	5.01	19.9%	10.6%	164	+1.64	3.37	556	60
Christian Bergman R 2018 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	15.7%	6.3%	3.3%	.327	7.36	13.2%	6.6%	26	+2.99	3.99	467	60
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	59
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	59
Masahiro Tanaka R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	19.6%	5.3%	3.5%	.292	4.08	22.3%	18.2%	48	+0.07	3.34	918	59
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,160	59
Stephen Strasburg R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	28.7%	6.6%	3.3%	.299	3.14	29.1%	22.3%	231	-0.19	2.42	811	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	150	22.0%	7.4%	1.64	4.71
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64