Zack Lee
P
West Michigan Whitecaps
+0.1
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA4.65
FIP4.65
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.4%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%10.6%
IP89
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 21 | 17 | 83 | 339 | 88 | 20 | 6 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 3.16 | 3.52 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 24 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 22 | 12 | 93 | 384 | 60 | 29 | 10 | 11.6% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 3.79 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 3 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 11 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 73 | 33 | 12 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.65 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 96 | 407 | 84 | 35 | 12 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.31 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 96 | 407 | 82 | 35 | 12 | 20.1% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.57 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 85 | 36 | 13 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 86 | 36 | 13 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.56 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 83 | 36 | 13 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.60 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 95 | 401 | 80 | 35 | 13 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.66 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 92 | 387 | 76 | 34 | 13 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 88 | 371 | 72 | 34 | 12 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.82 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 84 | 354 | 68 | 33 | 12 | 19.2% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.92 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 80 | 337 | 70 | 29 | 12 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.76 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 65 | 28 | 12 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 4.85 | 4.88 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 59 | 27 | 11 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 4.95 | 5.01 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 29 | 186 | 769 | 125 | 61 | 22 | 16.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 3.62 | 4.31 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 31 | 200 | 825 | 134 | 65 | 24 | 16.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 3.62 | 4.31 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zack Lee (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.56 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 296 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 96 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 95 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 94 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 90 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 90 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.12 | 14.4% | 3.5% | 146 | +0.66 | 3.37 | 353 | 89 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.39 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .286 | 4.23 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.16 | 3.32 | 252 | 88 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 88 |
| Jordan Pries R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | .307 | 4.41 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 131 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 219 | 88 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 88 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 87 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 87 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 86 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 3.37 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.94 | 2.78 | 536 | 86 |
| Chase Solesky R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.96 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .322 | 4.60 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 205 | -0.36 | 4.07 | 501 | 86 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 86 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .291 | 4.02 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.14 | 3.45 | 274 | 85 |
| Nestor Molina R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 85 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .284 | 3.50 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 84 | -1.40 | 3.50 | 368 | 85 |
| Allen Webster R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.16 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.8% | .356 | 5.73 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.57 | 4.61 | 177 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | -$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +0.2 | $1M | -$4M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.3 | $2M | -$6M |
| Totals | $18M | $13M | -$5M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.