Zack Lee — OGILVIE

Zack Lee P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.48

FIP5.48

K%11.5%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%1.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL5050

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	3	0	4	16	4	1	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	0.0%	9.00	1.78	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	3	0	4	16	4	1	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	0.0%	9.00	1.78	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	3	0	4	16	4	1	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	0.0%	9.00	1.85	—
2024	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	17	83	339	88	20	6	81%	3.9	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	2.1%	3.16	3.51	—
2024	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	17	83	339	88	20	6	81%	3.9	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	2.1%	3.16	3.51	—
2024	23	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	17	83	339	88	20	6	81%	3.9	26.0%	5.9%	20.1%	1.8%	3.16	2.64	—
2025	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	12	93	384	60	29	10	55%	4.2	11.6%	8.9%	2.7%	3.9%	3.79	5.40	—
2025	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	12	93	384	60	29	10	55%	4.2	11.6%	8.9%	2.7%	3.9%	3.79	5.40	—
2025	24	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	12	93	384	60	29	10	55%	4.2	15.6%	7.6%	8.1%	2.6%	3.79	4.15	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	36	6	65	272	69	21	3	17%	1.8	20.2%	7.9%	12.3%	1.5%	3.60	3.22	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	36	6	65	272	69	21	3	17%	1.8	20.2%	7.9%	12.3%	1.5%	3.60	3.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	DET	34	6	61	248	65	17	3	18%	1.8	26.2%	6.9%	19.4%	1.2%	2.67	2.42	—
2026	25	AA RAW	DET	1	0	3	14	4	2	0	0%	3.0	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	9.00	2.50	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	DET	1	0	1	10	0	2	0	0%	1.3	0.0%	20.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	33.75	5.63	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	DET	6	0	6	27	3	3	1	0%	1.1	11.5%	10.1%	1.4%	3.1%	5.48	5.48	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	71	299	72	24	4	—	—	24.1%	7.9%	16.2%	1.3%	3.77	3.42	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	DET	79	0	83	352	48	35	11	0%	1.1	13.8%	9.8%	4.0%	3.1%	5.29	5.25	-0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	78	0	82	347	50	34	11	0%	1.1	14.4%	9.7%	4.6%	3.1%	5.21	5.21	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	DET	76	0	80	336	56	30	11	0%	1.0	16.6%	9.0%	7.6%	3.2%	5.05	4.98	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	DET	72	0	76	321	53	30	11	0%	1.1	16.6%	9.2%	7.4%	3.4%	5.07	5.09	-0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	DET	68	0	71	301	49	29	11	0%	1.1	16.2%	9.5%	6.7%	3.6%	5.19	5.27	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	DET	34	0	36	152	21	15	5	0%	1.1	13.8%	9.8%	4.0%	3.1%	5.29	5.25	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	50	0	52	220	32	21	7	0%	1.0	14.4%	9.7%	4.6%	3.1%	5.21	5.21	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	DET	57	0	60	253	42	23	8	0%	1.1	16.6%	9.0%	7.6%	3.2%	5.05	4.98	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	DET	59	0	62	262	43	24	9	0%	1.1	16.6%	9.2%	7.4%	3.4%	5.07	5.09	-0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	DET	58	0	61	258	42	24	9	0%	1.1	16.2%	9.5%	6.7%	3.6%	5.19	5.27	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		258	0	270	1142	179	107	38	0%	1.0	15.7%	9.4%	6.3%	3.3%	5.15	4.77	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	132	79	28	0%	1.1	15.7%	9.4%	6.3%	3.3%	5.15	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		82	35	244	1011	168	80	26	43%	3.0	16.7%	7.9%	8.7%	2.6%	3.61	4.12	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	29	200	828	138	66	21	43%	3.0	16.7%	7.9%	8.7%	2.6%	3.61	4.12	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zack Lee (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.48	11.5%	10.1%	3.1%	—	5.15	14.9%	5.4%	245	-0.33	—	—	—
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	88
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	87
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	85
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	83
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	83
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	82
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	82
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	81
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	81
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	80
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	79
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	79
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	79
Blake McKnight R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	7.0%	10.8%	0.9%	.277	4.82	9.5%	0.1%	39	+0.43	3.24	225	79
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	79
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	79
Drasen Johnson R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	24	SW	4.70	9.6%	5.7%	3.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	110	78
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	78
Kyle Miller R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	23	SW	4.68	12.1%	12.0%	2.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	164	78
Geno Encina R 2019 · 4.86 FIP	25	SW	4.86	10.4%	7.0%	3.2%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	4.22	200	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	77	14.9%	9.5%	1.25	5.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43