Nick Hull

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	32	10	89	3.96	3.54	24.5%	10.7%	—	K 19.0% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.62
2025	25	AACHC	35	2	57	3.61	4.09	22.7%	10.5%	—	K 18.4% · BB 11.6% · FIP 5.07
2026	26	AAASEA	18	9	54	7.17	4.86	17.7%	10.6%	—	K 15.2% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.93
2027PROJ	27	MLBSEA	7	0	7	5.29	5.29	15.9%	11.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBSEA	21	0	22	5.25	5.28	16.6%	11.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBSEA	24	0	25	5.27	5.34	16.8%	11.1%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsDennis O'Grady (age 26) · Tyler Yates (age 26) · Jorge Reyes (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%15.9%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%4.8%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	10	38	7	3	0	75%	2.4	18.4%	7.9%	10.5%	0.0%	3.72	2.54	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	3	10	38	7	3	0	75%	2.4	18.4%	7.9%	10.5%	0.0%	3.72	2.58	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	92	380	88	39	6	70%	4.0	17.2%	12.1%	5.2%	2.0%	4.11	4.26	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	92	380	88	39	6	70%	4.0	23.2%	10.3%	12.9%	1.6%	4.11	3.31	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	10	89	383	94	41	8	31%	2.8	19.0%	12.2%	6.8%	2.9%	3.96	4.62	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	10	89	383	94	41	8	31%	2.8	19.0%	12.2%	6.8%	2.9%	3.96	4.62	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	10	89	383	94	41	8	31%	2.8	24.5%	10.7%	13.8%	2.1%	3.96	3.54	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	35	2	57	247	56	26	7	6%	1.6	18.4%	11.6%	6.8%	3.7%	3.61	5.07	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	35	2	57	247	56	26	7	6%	1.6	18.4%	11.6%	6.8%	3.7%	3.61	5.07	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	35	2	57	247	56	26	7	6%	1.6	22.7%	10.5%	12.1%	2.8%	3.61	4.09	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	18	9	54	254	45	27	8	50%	3.0	15.2%	9.6%	5.7%	3.5%	7.17	4.93	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	18	9	54	254	45	27	8	50%	3.0	15.2%	9.6%	5.7%	3.5%	7.17	4.93	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	18	9	54	254	45	27	8	50%	3.0	17.7%	10.6%	7.1%	3.1%	7.17	4.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SEA	7	0	7	30	5	3	1	0%	1.0	15.9%	11.1%	4.8%	3.2%	5.29	5.29	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SEA	48	0	51	214	35	24	7	0%	1.1	16.6%	11.1%	5.5%	3.3%	5.25	5.28	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	SEA	40	0	42	179	30	20	6	0%	1.1	16.8%	11.1%	5.7%	3.4%	5.27	5.34	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	SEA	21	0	22	93	15	10	3	0%	1.0	16.6%	11.1%	5.5%	3.3%	5.25	5.28	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	SEA	24	0	25	106	18	12	4	0%	1.0	16.8%	11.1%	5.7%	3.4%	5.27	5.34	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	0	47	197	33	22	7	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	3.3%	5.26	4.93	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	94	30	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	3.3%	5.26	4.93	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		112	40	302	1302	229	149	37	36%	2.7	17.6%	11.4%	6.2%	2.8%	4.50	4.60	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	27	200	863	152	99	24	36%	2.7	17.6%	11.4%	6.2%	2.8%	4.50	4.60	-1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 54 IPFIP 4.68 → 4.93 (+0.25)K% 17.7% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.72%	—	×0.860	15.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.63%	—	×0.900	9.57%
HR / BF /BF	3.15%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.46%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.68 → 4.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 57 IPFIP 4.07 → 5.07 (+0.99)K% 22.7% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.67%	—	×0.810	18.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.100	11.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.83%	÷0.911	×1.200	3.73%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 4.07 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 76 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.95 (+1.18)K% 24.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.32%	—	×0.770	18.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.94%	—	×1.150	12.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.43%	÷0.909	×1.250	3.34%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATennessee Smokies · 13 IPFIP 2.08 → 2.62 (+0.53)K% 25.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.810	21.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.26%	—	×1.100	10.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.854	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.08 → 2.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 75 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.13 (+1.03)K% 24.4% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.44%	—	×0.740	18.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.79%	—	×1.180	12.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷0.957	×1.300	1.72%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 17 IPFIP 4.33 → 4.88 (+0.55)K% 16.9% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.92%	—	×0.770	13.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.150	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷1.197	×1.250	3.21%

Result: FIP 4.33 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 9 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.32 (+0.59)K% 17.6% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.65%	—	×0.740	13.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.180	10.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.942	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Hull (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	15.9%	11.1%	3.2%	—	5.31	16.7%	5.6%	93	+0.02	—	—	—
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	87
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	86
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	85
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	85
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	84
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	82
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	81
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	81
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	81
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	80
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	80
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	79
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	79
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	79
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	79
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	78
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	78
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	78
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	77
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	16.4%	11.1%	1.27	5.27
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*