Jake Walkinshaw

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	14	13	40	3.15	3.10	19.1%	7.4%	—	K 16.1% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.03
2025	29	AAAOAK	36	3	53	4.89	4.30	13.8%	10.8%	—	K 11.8% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.19
2026	30	MIX2 levels	35	0	40	5.22	3.60	23.6%	12.1%	—	K 21.1% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.34
2027PROJ	31	MLBMIA	6	0	6	5.05	5.05	15.0%	11.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBMIA	13	0	14	5.11	5.20	15.4%	12.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBMIA	15	0	16	5.25	5.39	15.5%	12.3%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control45Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsRudy Gonzalez (age 34) · Dustin Molleken (age 31) · Murphy Smith (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%15.0%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%3.1%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	23	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics Green	18	0	25	103	29	4	1	0%	1.4	19.1%	4.9%	14.3%	1.4%	3.28	2.84	—
2019	23	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics Green	18	0	25	103	29	4	1	0%	1.4	28.2%	3.9%	24.3%	1.0%	3.28	1.76	—
2021	25	A MLE	Stockton Ports	16	14	72	316	63	25	6	88%	4.5	14.8%	9.3%	5.4%	2.1%	4.85	4.20	—
2021	25	A RAW	Stockton Ports	16	14	72	316	63	25	6	88%	4.5	19.9%	7.9%	12.0%	1.9%	4.85	3.47	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	10	63	264	58	15	8	59%	3.7	17.5%	6.4%	11.1%	4.0%	3.57	4.61	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	10	63	264	58	15	8	59%	3.7	22.0%	5.7%	16.3%	3.0%	3.57	3.62	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	8	6	33	147	23	13	7	75%	4.2	12.7%	9.7%	2.9%	6.0%	5.94	6.54	—
2023	27	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	8	6	33	147	23	13	7	75%	4.2	15.6%	8.8%	6.8%	4.8%	5.94	5.62	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	40	162	31	12	2	93%	2.9	16.1%	8.5%	7.5%	2.2%	3.15	4.03	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	40	162	31	12	2	93%	2.9	16.1%	8.5%	7.5%	2.2%	3.15	4.03	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	40	162	31	12	2	93%	2.9	19.1%	7.4%	11.7%	1.2%	3.15	3.10	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	36	3	53	240	33	26	4	8%	1.5	11.8%	9.8%	2.1%	1.5%	4.89	4.19	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	36	3	53	240	33	26	4	8%	1.5	11.8%	9.8%	2.1%	1.5%	4.89	4.19	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	36	3	53	240	33	26	4	8%	1.5	13.8%	10.8%	2.9%	1.7%	4.89	4.30	—
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	40	174	41	21	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	1.3%	5.22	3.34	—
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	40	174	41	21	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	1.3%	5.22	3.34	—
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	40	174	41	21	3	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.1%	11.5%	1.7%	5.22	3.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	MIA	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	15.0%	11.9%	3.1%	2.4%	5.05	5.05	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIA	36	0	38	158	24	19	4	0%	1.0	15.4%	12.0%	3.4%	2.7%	5.11	5.20	-0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIA	28	0	29	124	19	15	4	0%	1.1	15.5%	12.3%	3.2%	3.0%	5.25	5.39	-0.3
2030	34	MLB MLE	MIA	23	0	25	104	16	13	3	0%	1.1	15.3%	12.6%	2.7%	3.3%	5.44	5.61	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIA	13	0	14	59	9	7	2	0%	1.1	15.4%	12.0%	3.4%	2.7%	5.11	5.20	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIA	15	0	16	68	10	8	2	0%	1.1	15.5%	12.3%	3.2%	3.0%	5.25	5.39	-0.1
2030	34	MLB CTX	MIA	11	0	12	51	8	6	2	0%	1.1	15.3%	12.6%	2.7%	3.3%	5.44	5.61	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	42	179	28	22	5	0%	1.1	15.4%	12.3%	3.1%	3.0%	5.26	5.01	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	132	104	24	0%	1.1	15.4%	12.3%	3.1%	3.0%	5.26	5.01	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		144	46	326	1406	222	121	37	32%	2.3	15.8%	8.6%	7.2%	2.6%	4.44	4.29	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	28	200	862	136	74	23	32%	2.3	15.8%	8.6%	7.2%	2.6%	4.44	4.29	-1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 39 IPFIP 3.13 → 3.34 (+0.21)K% 24.6% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.55%	—	×0.860	21.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.38%	—	×0.900	10.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.32%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.13 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 53 IPFIP 4.23 → 4.19 (−0.04)K% 13.8% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.75%	—	×0.860	11.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.83%	—	×0.900	9.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷1.183	×1.100	1.55%

Result: FIP 4.23 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMidland RockHounds · 29 IPFIP 3.35 → 4.03 (+0.68)K% 19.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.83%	—	×0.810	16.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.76%	—	×1.100	8.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷0.940	×1.200	2.20%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Athletics · 11 IPFIP 2.46 → 3.13 (+0.68)K% 17.4% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.680	11.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.52%	—	×1.250	8.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.852	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 2.46 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 33 IPFIP 5.51 → 6.54 (+1.03)K% 15.6% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.65%	—	×0.810	12.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.84%	—	×1.100	9.73%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷0.957	×1.200	5.97%

Result: FIP 5.51 → 6.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 40 IPFIP 3.33 → 4.48 (+1.15)K% 25.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.90%	—	×0.770	19.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.02%	—	×1.150	6.93%
HR / BF /BF	3.01%	÷0.944	×1.250	3.99%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 3.33 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 18 IPFIP 4.65 → 4.87 (+0.22)K% 13.9% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.92%	—	×0.880	12.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.06%	—	×1.050	5.32%
HR / BF /BF	3.80%	÷1.075	×1.100	3.88%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 4.65 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AStockton Ports · 72 IPFIP 3.46 → 4.20 (+0.74)K% 19.9% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.94%	—	×0.740	14.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.91%	—	×1.180	9.34%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.165	×1.300	2.12%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 3.46 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Walkinshaw (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	15.0%	11.9%	2.4%	—	5.37	15.4%	3.1%	92	+0.32	—	—	—
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	85
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	79
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	78
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	77
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	77
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	76
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	75
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	75
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	74
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	73
Clay Hensley R 2011 · 4.78 FIP	31	SW	4.78	15.5%	9.8%	3.2%	.249	4.37	17.9%	5.9%	51	-0.41	2.58	517	72
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	72
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	71
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	71
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	71
Fernando Villalobos R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	12.3%	8.6%	1.6%	.305	4.70	10.6%	2.6%	55	+0.70	4.00	152	71
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	71
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	70
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	9.8%	9.5%	1.6%	.307	3.52	13.2%	7.9%	80	-0.85	2.23	173	70
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	37	15.2%	12.1%	1.07	5.17
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*