Jake Walkinshaw — OGILVIE

Jake Walkinshaw P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 121

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%10.2%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%-1.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	23	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics Green	18	0	25	103	29	4	1	0%	1.4	19.1%	4.9%	14.3%	1.4%	3.28	2.84	—
2019	23	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics Green	18	0	25	103	29	4	1	0%	1.4	28.2%	3.9%	24.3%	1.0%	3.28	1.76	—
2021	25	A MLE	Stockton Ports	16	14	72	316	63	25	6	88%	4.5	14.8%	9.3%	5.4%	2.1%	4.85	4.20	—
2021	25	A RAW	Stockton Ports	16	14	72	316	63	25	6	88%	4.5	19.9%	7.9%	12.0%	1.9%	4.85	3.47	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	10	63	264	58	15	8	59%	3.7	17.5%	6.4%	11.1%	4.0%	3.57	4.61	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	10	63	264	58	15	8	59%	3.7	22.0%	5.7%	16.3%	3.0%	3.57	3.62	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	8	6	33	147	23	13	7	75%	4.2	12.7%	9.7%	2.9%	6.0%	5.94	6.54	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	8	6	33	147	23	13	7	75%	4.2	12.7%	9.7%	2.9%	6.0%	5.94	6.54	—
2023	27	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	8	6	33	147	23	13	7	75%	4.2	15.6%	8.8%	6.8%	4.8%	5.94	5.62	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	40	162	31	12	2	93%	2.9	16.1%	8.5%	7.5%	2.2%	3.15	4.03	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	40	162	31	12	2	93%	2.9	16.1%	8.5%	7.5%	2.2%	3.15	4.03	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	40	162	31	12	2	93%	2.9	19.1%	7.4%	11.7%	1.2%	3.15	3.10	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	36	3	53	240	33	26	4	8%	1.5	11.4%	9.8%	1.7%	1.5%	4.89	4.22	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	36	3	53	240	33	26	4	8%	1.5	11.4%	9.8%	1.7%	1.5%	4.89	4.22	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	36	3	53	240	33	26	4	8%	1.5	13.8%	10.8%	2.9%	1.7%	4.89	4.30	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	33	0	37	159	37	19	3	0%	1.1	20.2%	10.1%	10.1%	1.4%	4.91	3.46	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	33	0	37	159	37	19	3	0%	1.1	20.2%	10.1%	10.1%	1.4%	4.91	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	A RAW	MIA	1	0	1	7	0	2	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	28.6%	-28.6%	14.3%	27.00	14.56	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	MIA	32	0	36	152	37	17	2	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.2%	13.2%	1.3%	4.29	3.18	—
ROS	30	MLB MLE	MIA	5	0	6	24	2	3	1	0%	1.1	10.2%	11.5%	-1.4%	2.6%	5.50	5.50	-0.1
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	42	183	39	22	4	—	—	21.5%	11.9%	9.6%	2.0%	4.99	3.74	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	MIA	60	0	63	267	30	31	8	0%	1.1	11.1%	11.6%	-0.6%	2.8%	5.50	5.58	-0.7
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIA	56	0	59	247	29	29	8	0%	1.0	11.6%	11.9%	-0.3%	3.1%	5.59	5.71	-0.7
2027	31	MLB CTX	MIA	22	0	23	97	11	11	3	0%	1.0	11.1%	11.6%	-0.6%	2.8%	5.50	5.58	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIA	30	0	32	135	16	16	4	0%	1.1	11.6%	11.9%	-0.3%	3.1%	5.59	5.71	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	237	27	28	7	0%	1.1	11.3%	11.8%	-0.4%	3.0%	5.55	5.28	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	96	100	25	0%	1.1	11.3%	11.8%	-0.4%	3.0%	5.55	5.28	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		142	46	323	1391	217	119	37	32%	2.3	15.6%	8.6%	7.0%	2.7%	4.40	4.32	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	28	200	860	134	74	23	32%	2.3	15.6%	8.6%	7.0%	2.7%	4.40	4.32	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Walkinshaw (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	10.2%	11.5%	2.6%	—	5.64	11.3%	-0.4%	122	+0.14	—	—	—
Fernando Villalobos R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	30	SU	5.33	8.3%	13.1%	2.3%	.365	4.36	11.4%	3.1%	109	-0.97	4.00	152	83
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	78
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	9.8%	9.5%	1.6%	.307	3.52	13.2%	7.9%	80	-0.85	2.23	173	77
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	76
Francisco Rodriguez R 2015 · 4.79 FIP	32	SU	4.79	11.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.281	4.04	12.1%	4.4%	139	-0.75	3.16	273	75
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	75
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	74
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	73
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	29	SU	5.54	15.4%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	73
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	73
Luis Angel Daniel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	30	SU	4.47	9.9%	6.9%	2.4%	.292	4.36	11.6%	2.4%	107	-0.11	4.16	156	72
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	72
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	72
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	71
Rene Coss R 2017 · 5.05 FIP	28	SU	5.05	12.6%	11.5%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	123	70
Jaye Chapman R 2017 · 5.51 FIP	30	SU	5.51	13.0%	13.4%	3.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	150	70
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	69
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	69
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	68
Ramon Delgado R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	30	SW	4.31	11.2%	4.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	135	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	10.9%	11.7%	1.10	5.53
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86