Logan Martin — OGILVIE

Logan Martin P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 226 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%14.8%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%3.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	2	8	31	12	3	1	50%	2.0	38.7%	9.7%	29.0%	3.2%	2.25	2.83	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	2	8	31	12	3	1	50%	2.0	38.7%	9.7%	29.0%	3.2%	2.25	2.83	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	2	8	31	12	3	1	50%	2.0	38.7%	9.7%	29.0%	3.2%	2.25	2.85	—
2024	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	25	17	102	424	97	32	7	68%	4.1	16.9%	8.9%	8.0%	2.1%	3.62	3.95	—
2024	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	25	17	102	424	97	32	7	68%	4.1	16.9%	8.9%	8.0%	2.1%	3.62	3.95	—
2024	23	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	25	17	102	424	97	32	7	68%	4.1	22.9%	7.5%	15.3%	1.7%	3.62	3.03	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	91	378	78	36	5	100%	4.2	15.9%	11.0%	4.9%	1.7%	3.45	4.07	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	91	378	78	36	5	100%	4.2	15.9%	11.0%	4.9%	1.7%	3.45	4.07	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	91	378	78	36	5	100%	4.2	20.6%	9.5%	11.1%	1.3%	3.45	3.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	28	8	64	267	69	36	9	29%	2.3	20.8%	15.7%	5.1%	4.0%	4.64	5.53	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	28	8	64	267	69	36	9	29%	2.3	20.8%	15.7%	5.1%	4.0%	4.64	5.53	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	SF	6	1	10	34	13	1	0	17%	1.7	38.2%	2.9%	35.3%	0.0%	0.87	0.24	—
2026	25	AA RAW	SF	20	7	49	210	54	30	7	35%	2.5	25.7%	14.3%	11.4%	3.3%	4.59	4.57	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	SF	2	0	5	23	2	5	2	0%	2.4	8.7%	21.7%	-13.0%	8.7%	13.50	9.89	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	SF	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	14.8%	11.2%	3.5%	2.6%	5.10	5.10	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	70	292	73	39	10	—	—	24.9%	13.3%	11.6%	3.3%	4.68	5.49	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	92	388	63	42	10	100%	6.1	16.1%	10.9%	5.3%	2.7%	4.98	4.96	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	90	382	63	41	10	100%	6.0	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	2.7%	4.93	4.94	-0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	88	370	62	40	11	100%	5.8	16.7%	10.7%	6.0%	2.9%	4.95	4.99	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	84	354	59	38	11	100%	6.0	16.6%	10.8%	5.8%	3.0%	5.03	5.10	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	79	333	61	34	11	100%	6.1	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	3.2%	5.02	5.01	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	40	169	27	18	4	100%	5.7	16.1%	10.9%	5.3%	2.5%	4.87	4.85	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	57	241	40	26	6	100%	5.7	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	2.5%	4.82	4.83	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	66	279	47	30	7	100%	6.0	16.7%	10.7%	6.0%	2.6%	4.83	4.87	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	68	287	48	31	8	100%	6.2	16.6%	10.8%	5.8%	2.8%	4.91	4.98	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	68	287	52	30	9	100%	6.2	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	3.0%	4.89	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	50	300	1267	214	135	34	100%	6.0	16.9%	10.7%	6.2%	2.7%	4.86	4.51	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	143	90	23	100%	6.0	16.9%	10.7%	6.2%	2.7%	4.86	4.51	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		79	49	265	1100	199	124	27	62%	3.4	18.1%	11.3%	6.8%	2.5%	3.77	4.34	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	37	200	829	150	94	20	62%	3.4	18.1%	11.3%	6.8%	2.5%	3.77	4.34	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Martin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	14.8%	11.2%	2.6%	—	4.96	16.5%	5.7%	270	-0.14	—	—	—
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	87
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	86
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	84
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	83
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	83
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	82
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	82
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	82
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	82
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	82
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	81
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	80
André Rienzo R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SW	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.02	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.20	3.53	200	80
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	80
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	80
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	79
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	79
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	79
Casey Kelly R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	13.6%	8.7%	2.1%	.339	4.56	15.2%	7.7%	356	+0.35	4.08	607	78
Sugar Ray Marimon R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SW	4.12	12.4%	9.1%	1.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	107	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	84	16.5%	10.8%	1.10	5.00
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10