Logan Martin

P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 226 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	AKC	25	17	102	3.62	3.03	22.9%	7.5%	—	K 16.9% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.95
2025	24	A+KC	22	22	91	3.45	3.29	20.6%	9.5%	—	K 15.9% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.07
2026	25	MIX3 levels	29	8	67	4.46	4.55	25.2%	14.4%	—	K 20.8% · BB 15.7% · FIP 5.53
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	1	1	1	5.15	5.15	19.1%	12.9%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBSF	4	4	24	5.08	5.09	19.4%	12.4%	0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBSF	6	6	38	4.92	4.85	21.5%	11.4%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsCarlos Torres (age 26) · Bryce Conley (age 26) · Colby Morris (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%19.1%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	2	8	31	12	3	1	50%	2.0	38.7%	9.7%	29.0%	3.2%	2.25	2.83	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	2	8	31	12	3	1	50%	2.0	38.7%	9.7%	29.0%	3.2%	2.25	2.85	—
2024	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	25	17	102	424	97	32	7	68%	4.1	16.9%	8.9%	8.0%	2.1%	3.62	3.95	—
2024	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	25	17	102	424	97	32	7	68%	4.1	16.9%	8.9%	8.0%	2.1%	3.62	3.95	—
2024	23	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	25	17	102	424	97	32	7	68%	4.1	22.9%	7.5%	15.3%	1.7%	3.62	3.03	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	91	378	78	36	5	100%	4.2	15.9%	11.0%	4.9%	1.7%	3.45	4.07	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	91	378	78	36	5	100%	4.2	15.9%	11.0%	4.9%	1.7%	3.45	4.07	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	91	378	78	36	5	100%	4.2	20.6%	9.5%	11.1%	1.3%	3.45	3.29	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	8	67	278	70	40	9	28%	2.3	20.8%	15.7%	5.1%	4.0%	4.46	5.53	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	8	67	278	70	40	9	28%	2.3	20.8%	15.7%	5.1%	4.0%	4.46	5.53	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	8	67	278	70	40	9	28%	2.3	25.2%	14.4%	10.8%	3.2%	4.46	4.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	19.1%	12.9%	6.3%	3.0%	5.15	5.15	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	65	274	53	34	8	100%	5.9	19.4%	12.4%	7.0%	3.1%	5.08	5.09	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	63	267	57	30	8	100%	5.7	21.5%	11.4%	10.1%	3.2%	4.92	4.85	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	57	242	52	28	8	100%	5.7	21.3%	11.5%	9.8%	3.3%	4.93	4.95	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	51	217	46	26	8	100%	5.7	21.0%	11.8%	9.3%	3.5%	5.03	5.11	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	4	4	24	101	20	13	3	100%	6.0	19.4%	12.4%	7.0%	3.1%	5.08	5.09	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	38	160	34	18	5	100%	6.3	21.5%	11.4%	10.1%	3.2%	4.92	4.85	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	41	173	37	20	6	100%	5.9	21.3%	11.5%	9.8%	3.3%	4.93	4.95	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	40	169	36	20	6	100%	5.7	21.0%	11.8%	9.3%	3.5%	5.03	5.11	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	24	143	603	126	71	20	100%	6.0	21.0%	11.7%	9.2%	3.3%	4.98	4.61	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	176	99	28	100%	6.0	21.0%	11.7%	9.2%	3.3%	4.98	4.61	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		80	49	268	1111	202	126	27	61%	3.4	18.2%	11.3%	6.8%	2.5%	3.73	4.36	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	37	200	829	151	94	20	61%	3.4	18.2%	11.3%	6.8%	2.5%	3.73	4.36	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 49 IPFIP 4.57 → 5.53 (+0.96)K% 25.7% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.71%	—	×0.810	20.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.100	15.71%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.57 → 5.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 7 IPFIP 8.94 → 9.03 (+0.09)K% 8.8% → 7.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	8.82%	—	×0.860	7.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	26.47%	—	×0.900	23.82%
HR / BF /BF	5.88%	÷1.000	×1.100	6.47%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 8.94 → 9.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Giants · 10 IPFIP 0.24 → 1.37 (+1.13)K% 38.2% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.24%	—	×0.680	26.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.94%	—	×1.250	3.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.24 → 1.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 91 IPFIP 3.29 → 4.07 (+0.78)K% 20.6% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.63%	—	×0.770	15.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.150	10.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.983	×1.250	1.68%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 3.29 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AColumbia Fireflies · 102 IPFIP 3.03 → 3.95 (+0.92)K% 22.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.88%	—	×0.740	16.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.180	8.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.65%	÷1.020	×1.300	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.03 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 5 IPFIP 4.58 → 6.00 (+1.42)K% 30.0% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.740	22.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.180	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.089	×1.300	5.97%

Result: FIP 4.58 → 6.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Martin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.96	20.7%	8.9%	186	-0.19	—	—	—
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	83
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	81
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	81
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	79
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	79
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	79
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	78
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	78
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	77
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	77
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	77
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	77
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	76
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	76
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	76
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	76
Joe Record R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	16.6%	15.3%	2.2%	.236	3.55	20.8%	9.1%	172	-1.27	2.64	280	76
Carlos Tavera R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	25	SW	5.12	18.3%	13.3%	3.4%	.299	5.43	21.9%	8.8%	29	+0.31	3.85	263	75
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	75
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	59	20.5%	12.0%	1.24	5.02
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*