Drake Fellows — OGILVIE

Drake Fellows P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 216 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION89 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%15.0%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	2	12	56	9	10	1	40%	2.3	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	1.8%	3.09	4.98	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	2	12	56	9	10	1	40%	2.3	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	1.8%	3.09	5.24	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	5	12	56	13	11	1	45%	1.1	17.1%	20.4%	-3.3%	2.6%	8.25	5.66	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	5	12	56	13	11	1	45%	1.1	17.1%	20.4%	-3.3%	2.6%	8.25	5.66	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	5	12	56	13	11	1	45%	1.1	23.2%	19.6%	3.6%	1.8%	8.25	4.77	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	13	75	335	68	40	6	54%	3.1	16.0%	12.7%	3.3%	3.0%	5.67	4.98	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	13	75	335	68	40	6	54%	3.1	16.0%	12.7%	3.3%	3.0%	5.67	4.98	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	13	75	335	68	40	6	54%	3.1	20.3%	11.9%	8.4%	1.8%	5.67	3.93	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	33	19	112	483	94	46	11	58%	3.4	16.2%	8.6%	7.6%	2.7%	4.41	4.32	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	33	19	112	483	94	46	11	58%	3.4	16.2%	8.6%	7.6%	2.7%	4.41	4.32	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	33	19	112	483	94	46	11	58%	3.4	19.5%	9.5%	9.9%	2.3%	4.41	3.93	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	19	18	89	392	49	31	16	95%	4.7	10.4%	7.1%	3.3%	4.5%	5.64	5.59	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	19	18	89	392	49	31	16	95%	4.7	10.4%	7.1%	3.3%	4.5%	5.64	5.59	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	PHI	19	18	89	392	49	31	16	95%	4.7	12.5%	7.9%	4.6%	4.1%	5.64	5.29	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	PHI	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	5.8	15.0%	10.1%	5.0%	2.9%	5.05	5.05	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	95	417	53	33	17	—	—	12.7%	8.0%	4.6%	4.0%	5.61	5.56	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	66	280	44	29	8	100%	6.0	15.6%	10.2%	5.4%	3.0%	5.06	5.11	-0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	62	263	42	27	8	100%	6.2	15.9%	10.4%	5.4%	3.2%	5.14	5.23	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	24	101	16	10	3	100%	6.0	15.6%	10.2%	5.4%	3.0%	5.06	5.11	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	6	6	34	144	23	15	5	100%	5.7	15.9%	10.4%	5.4%	3.2%	5.14	5.23	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	59	250	39	26	8	100%	5.9	15.8%	10.3%	5.4%	3.1%	5.11	4.80	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	132	88	27	100%	6.0	15.8%	10.3%	5.4%	3.1%	5.11	4.80	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		92	57	300	1322	191	133	43	62%	3.3	14.4%	10.1%	4.4%	3.3%	5.19	4.95	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	38	200	881	127	89	29	62%	3.3	14.4%	10.1%	4.4%	3.3%	5.19	4.95	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drake Fellows (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	15.0%	10.1%	2.9%	—	5.17	15.8%	5.4%	128	+0.12	—	—	—
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	82
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	81
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	80
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	78
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	78
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	78
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	78
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	77
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	77
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	77
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	77
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	76
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	76
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	76
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	76
Stolmy Pimentel R 2016 · 3.87 FIP	26	SP-	3.87	13.6%	10.5%	1.1%	.379	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	143	76
Ivan Zavala R 2015 · 4.51 FIP	28	SP-	4.51	7.0%	4.7%	2.6%	.312	4.73	12.2%	4.3%	50	+0.22	4.27	209	76
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	75
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	75
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	15.5%	10.2%	1.17	5.08
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43