Drake Fellows
P
Indianapolis Indians
+0.3
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'5" / 216 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2029
ERA4.76
FIP4.76
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.6%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%8.3%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2029
STUF4040
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 5 | 2 | 12 | 56 | 9 | 10 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.09 | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 11 | 5 | 12 | 56 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 17.1% | 20.4% | 2.6% | 8.25 | 5.65 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 24 | 13 | 75 | 335 | 68 | 40 | 6 | 16.2% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 5.67 | 4.95 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 33 | 19 | 112 | 483 | 94 | 46 | 11 | 17.1% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.40 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 16 | 16 | 87 | 367 | 64 | 39 | 10 | 17.4% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.91 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 64 | 38 | 10 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.87 | 4.89 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 15 | 15 | 82 | 348 | 62 | 36 | 10 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.90 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 14 | 14 | 80 | 336 | 67 | 32 | 10 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.67 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 14 | 14 | 76 | 322 | 63 | 31 | 10 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.75 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 60 | 30 | 10 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.85 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 56 | 29 | 10 | 19.0% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 4.96 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 51 | 28 | 9 | 18.6% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 47 | 27 | 9 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 39 | 211 | 930 | 155 | 114 | 25 | 16.7% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 5.00 | 4.71 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 37 | 200 | 883 | 147 | 108 | 24 | 16.7% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 5.00 | 4.71 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drake Fellows (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 17.4% | 10.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.82 | 18.5% | 8.3% | 247 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 88 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 86 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2029 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 86 |
| Luke Irvine R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 85 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 85 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.09 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.04 | 4.09 | 165 | 85 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 85 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 84 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 84 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 83 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 83 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.45 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.05 | 4.33 | 221 | 83 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 83 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 82 |
| Tim Atherton R 2023 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 82 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2029 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.46 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.30 | 4.16 | 325 | 82 |
| Iván Nova R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .283 | 4.33 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 510 | +0.03 | 4.13 | 810 | 81 |
| Scott McGregor R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 81 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 2.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 448 | 80 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.31 | 12.6% | 11.4% | 1.5% | .349 | 4.16 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 146 | -0.15 | 2.98 | 306 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.