Drake Fellows

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 216 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX3 levels	24	13	75	5.67	3.93	20.3%	11.9%	—	K 16.1% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.97
2025	27	AAAPIT	33	19	112	4.41	3.93	19.5%	9.5%	—	K 16.7% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.28
2026	28	AAAPHI	20	19	94	5.53	5.35	13.0%	7.9%	—	K 11.2% · BB 7.1% · FIP 5.53
2027PROJ	29	MLBPHI	1	1	7	5.41	5.41	12.3%	8.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBPHI	3	3	19	5.41	5.48	13.1%	8.9%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBPHI	4	4	24	5.49	5.60	13.5%	9.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJuan Omar Espinoza (age 31) · Scott McGregor (age 28) · Miguel Ruiz (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.41

FIP5.41

K%12.3%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%3.8%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	2	12	56	9	10	1	40%	2.3	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	1.8%	3.09	4.98	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	2	12	56	9	10	1	40%	2.3	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	1.8%	3.09	5.24	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	5	12	56	13	11	1	45%	1.1	17.1%	20.4%	-3.3%	2.6%	8.25	5.66	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	5	12	56	13	11	1	45%	1.1	23.2%	19.6%	3.6%	1.8%	8.25	4.77	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	13	75	335	68	40	6	54%	3.1	16.1%	12.7%	3.4%	3.0%	5.67	4.97	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	13	75	335	68	40	6	54%	3.1	16.1%	12.7%	3.4%	3.0%	5.67	4.97	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	13	75	335	68	40	6	54%	3.1	20.3%	11.9%	8.4%	1.8%	5.67	3.93	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	33	19	112	483	94	46	11	58%	3.4	16.7%	8.6%	8.2%	2.7%	4.41	4.28	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	33	19	112	483	94	46	11	58%	3.4	16.7%	8.6%	8.2%	2.7%	4.41	4.28	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	33	19	112	483	94	46	11	58%	3.4	19.5%	9.5%	9.9%	2.3%	4.41	3.93	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	20	19	94	416	54	33	17	95%	4.7	11.2%	7.1%	4.0%	4.5%	5.53	5.53	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	20	19	94	416	54	33	17	95%	4.7	11.2%	7.1%	4.0%	4.5%	5.53	5.53	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	20	19	94	416	54	33	17	95%	4.7	13.0%	7.9%	5.0%	4.1%	5.53	5.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	PHI	1	1	7	30	4	3	1	100%	7.0	12.3%	8.5%	3.8%	3.5%	5.41	5.41	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	52	220	29	20	8	100%	5.8	13.1%	8.9%	4.2%	3.6%	5.41	5.48	-0.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	PHI	7	7	43	182	25	17	7	100%	6.2	13.5%	9.2%	4.2%	3.8%	5.49	5.60	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	3	3	19	80	11	7	3	100%	6.3	13.1%	8.9%	4.2%	3.6%	5.41	5.48	-0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	24	101	14	9	4	100%	6.0	13.5%	9.2%	4.2%	3.8%	5.49	5.60	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	43	181	24	16	7	100%	6.1	13.3%	9.1%	4.2%	3.7%	5.45	5.16	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	112	75	33	100%	6.0	13.3%	9.1%	4.2%	3.7%	5.45	5.16	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		93	58	305	1346	200	135	44	62%	3.3	14.8%	10.0%	4.8%	3.3%	5.16	4.92	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	38	200	883	131	89	29	62%	3.3	14.8%	10.0%	4.8%	3.3%	5.16	4.92	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 94 IPFIP 5.25 → 5.53 (+0.28)K% 13.0% → 11.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.98%	—	×0.860	11.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.93%	—	×0.900	7.14%
HR / BF /BF	4.09%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.25 → 5.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 112 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.28 (+0.36)K% 19.5% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.46%	—	×0.860	16.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×0.900	8.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.28%	÷0.915	×1.100	2.74%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAltoona Curve · 53 IPFIP 4.14 → 5.21 (+1.07)K% 20.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.85%	—	×0.810	16.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.06%	—	×1.100	12.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.55%	÷0.844	×1.200	3.63%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 4.14 → 5.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 11 IPFIP 3.96 → 3.92 (−0.04)K% 14.8% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.81%	—	×0.860	12.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×0.900	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.909	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.96 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 10 IPFIP 2.46 → 3.13 (+0.67)K% 23.9% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.91%	—	×0.770	18.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.150	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.106	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 2.46 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ABradenton Marauders · 11 IPFIP 4.40 → 5.66 (+1.26)K% 23.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.740	17.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.31%	—	×1.180	20.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷0.971	×1.300	2.58%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 4.40 → 5.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Pirates Gold · 8 IPFIP 3.35 → 4.12 (+0.77)K% 14.7% → 10.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.71%	—	×0.680	10.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.250	14.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.946	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ABradenton Marauders · 4 IPFIP 7.51 → 8.53 (+1.02)K% 18.2% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.740	13.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	27.27%	—	×1.180	32.18%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.302	×1.300	4.54%

Result: FIP 7.51 → 8.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drake Fellows (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.41	12.3%	8.5%	3.5%	—	5.53	13.3%	4.2%	95	+0.12	—	—	—
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	85
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	82
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	81
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	79
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	79
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	78
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	76
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	75
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	75
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	74
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	74
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	73
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	73
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	73
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	72
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	71
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	71
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	71
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	70
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	12.9%	8.8%	1.39	5.43
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*