Carlos Tavera
P
Chesapeake Baysox
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AA
ERA5.04
FIP5.04
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.9%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%8.2%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 6 | 3 | 12 | 51 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 18.9% | 27.8% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 16 | 16 | 57 | 246 | 81 | 34 | 8 | 25.4% | 15.9% | 3.9% | 4.40 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 23 | 17 | 80 | 368 | 89 | 58 | 15 | 19.6% | 17.3% | 4.2% | 4.86 | 5.93 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 25 | 8 | 85 | 383 | 84 | 53 | 12 | 18.5% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 5.51 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 18 | 2 | 24 | 110 | 25 | 15 | 1 | 21.0% | 14.1% | 1.7% | 4.56 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 3 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.79 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 41 | 176 | 37 | 23 | 6 | 20.9% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 21.1% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 31 | 18 | 5 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 30 | 17 | 5 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 20.9% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 20.6% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 5.11 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 26 | 16 | 4 | 20.3% | 12.5% | 3.5% | 5.20 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 91 | 46 | 262 | 1182 | 243 | 193 | 41 | 20.6% | 16.3% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 5.34 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 35 | 200 | 901 | 185 | 147 | 31 | 20.6% | 16.3% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 5.34 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Tavera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.04 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 3.1% | — | 5.00 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 104 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 91 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 89 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 89 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 87 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 85 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.4% | .336 | 4.43 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.54 | 3.06 | 221 | 85 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 84 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 84 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.00 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | .256 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 315 | 82 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.48 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.8% | .324 | 5.48 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.00 | 5.37 | 129 | 82 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 82 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 82 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 81 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 81 |
| Guido Knudson R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.70 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 106 | 81 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.68 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 142 | 81 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.60 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 140 | 81 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.47 | 3.01 | 115 | 81 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 81 |
| Jonathan Aro R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.96 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.30 | 12.7% | 9.3% | 64 | -0.66 | 2.57 | 323 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.