Carlos Tavera — OGILVIE

Carlos Tavera P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%18.8%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%5.6%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	6	3	12	51	13	12	0	50%	2.0	18.9%	27.8%	-8.9%	0.0%	2.25	5.02	—
2021	22	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	6	3	12	51	13	12	0	50%	2.0	25.5%	23.5%	2.0%	0.0%	2.25	3.93	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	16	16	57	246	81	34	8	100%	3.6	25.4%	15.9%	9.5%	4.0%	4.40	5.14	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	16	16	57	246	81	34	8	100%	3.6	32.9%	13.8%	19.1%	3.3%	4.40	3.87	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	23	17	80	368	89	58	15	74%	3.5	19.6%	17.3%	2.3%	4.0%	4.86	5.86	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	23	17	80	368	89	58	15	74%	3.5	19.6%	17.3%	2.3%	4.0%	4.86	5.86	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	23	17	80	368	89	58	15	74%	3.5	24.2%	15.8%	8.4%	4.1%	4.86	5.50	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	8	85	383	84	53	12	32%	3.4	18.0%	13.3%	4.6%	3.4%	5.51	5.15	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	8	85	383	84	53	12	32%	3.4	18.0%	13.3%	4.6%	3.4%	5.51	5.15	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	8	85	383	84	53	12	32%	3.4	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	3.1%	5.51	4.83	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	2	24	110	25	15	1	11%	1.3	19.8%	12.1%	7.7%	1.7%	4.56	3.91	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	2	24	110	25	15	1	11%	1.3	19.8%	12.1%	7.7%	1.7%	4.56	3.91	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	2	24	110	25	15	1	11%	1.3	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	0.9%	4.56	3.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	10	0	14	62	18	8	4	0%	1.4	23.5%	14.2%	9.3%	7.7%	5.93	7.16	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	10	0	14	62	18	8	4	0%	1.4	23.5%	14.2%	9.3%	7.7%	5.93	7.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	BAL	10	0	14	62	18	8	4	0%	1.4	29.0%	12.9%	16.1%	6.5%	5.93	5.82	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BAL	23	0	24	103	20	13	3	0%	1.1	19.2%	13.0%	6.2%	3.2%	5.24	5.27	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	BAL	9	0	9	38	7	5	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	13.0%	6.2%	3.2%	5.24	5.27	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	39	7	5	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	13.0%	6.2%	3.2%	5.24	4.89	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	109	22	0%	1.0	19.2%	13.0%	6.2%	3.2%	5.24	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		98	46	271	1220	249	190	44	47%	2.8	20.4%	15.6%	4.8%	3.6%	4.88	5.35	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	34	200	899	184	140	33	47%	2.8	20.4%	15.6%	4.8%	3.6%	4.88	5.35	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Tavera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	18.8%	13.2%	3.1%	—	5.27	19.2%	6.2%	24	-0.02	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	81
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	80
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	78
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	76
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	75
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	73
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	73
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	73
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	73
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	73
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	73
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	72
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	72
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	72
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.30 FIP	25	SW	5.30	21.4%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	72
Jacob Wosinski R 2023 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	17.7%	12.4%	5.7%	.351	4.73	16.8%	5.2%	148	-1.58	3.89	181	72
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	72
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	72
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	72
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	71