Carlos Tavera
P
Chesapeake Baysox
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA5.02
FIP5.02
K%20.9%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%8.2%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 6 | 3 | 12 | 51 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 50% | 2.0 | 18.9% | 27.8% | -8.9% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 5.02 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 6 | 3 | 12 | 51 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 50% | 2.0 | 25.5% | 23.5% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 3.93 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 16 | 16 | 57 | 246 | 81 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 3.6 | 25.4% | 15.9% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 4.40 | 5.08 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 16 | 16 | 57 | 246 | 81 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 3.6 | 32.9% | 13.8% | 19.1% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 3.87 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 23 | 17 | 80 | 368 | 89 | 58 | 15 | 74% | 3.5 | 19.6% | 17.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 5.54 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 23 | 17 | 80 | 368 | 89 | 58 | 15 | 74% | 3.5 | 24.2% | 15.8% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 4.86 | 5.50 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 8 | 85 | 383 | 84 | 53 | 12 | 32% | 3.4 | 18.5% | 14.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.51 | 5.27 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 8 | 85 | 383 | 84 | 53 | 12 | 32% | 3.4 | 21.9% | 13.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 5.51 | 4.83 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 2 | 24 | 110 | 25 | 15 | 1 | 11% | 1.3 | 21.0% | 14.1% | 6.9% | 1.8% | 4.56 | 4.12 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 2 | 24 | 110 | 25 | 15 | 1 | 11% | 1.3 | 22.7% | 13.6% | 9.1% | 0.9% | 4.56 | 3.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 10 | 0 | 14 | 62 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 5.93 | 7.16 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 22 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 39 | 169 | 40 | 22 | 7 | — | — | 23.9% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 4.3% | 5.34 | 5.77 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.9% | 12.7% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 5.02 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 103 | 22 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 12.5% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 4.66 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 103 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 12.5% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 98 | 46 | 271 | 1220 | 253 | 198 | 42 | 47% | 2.8 | 20.7% | 16.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 5.29 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 34 | 200 | 899 | 186 | 146 | 31 | 47% | 2.8 | 20.7% | 16.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 5.29 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Tavera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 3.1% | — | 5.04 | 21.0% | 8.6% | 24 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 80 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 76 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 75 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 74 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 74 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 72 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 72 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 72 |
| Sean Isaac R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 155 | 72 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 71 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 71 |
| Logan Taylor R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.78 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 300 | 71 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 71 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 71 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.12 | 23.8% | 14.3% | 4.0% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 414 | 71 |
| Shawn Dubin R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .292 | 3.91 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 79 | -1.44 | 3.04 | 341 | 71 |
| Dustin Antolin R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.36 | 16.2% | 14.4% | 1.5% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 159 | 70 |
| Linder Castro R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.55 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .305 | 5.45 | 21.1% | 6.3% | 62 | +0.90 | 4.27 | 279 | 70 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .297 | 4.10 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | -0.05 | 3.33 | 556 | 70 |
| Mike Adams R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 70 |