Bryce Conley
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION81 act + 66 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140130vR 121
ERA5.36
FIP5.36
K%18.0%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%9.5%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 147 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | A | Beloit Snappers | 20 | 16 | 85 | 359 | 98 | 37 | 8 | 80% | 4.2 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 4.46 | 4.94 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Beloit Snappers | 20 | 16 | 85 | 359 | 98 | 37 | 8 | 80% | 4.2 | 27.3% | 10.3% | 17.0% | 2.2% | 4.46 | 3.32 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 98 | 59 | 11 | 76% | 4.1 | 17.0% | 16.0% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 3.43 | 5.33 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 98 | 59 | 11 | 76% | 4.1 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 3.43 | 4.31 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 29 | 14 | 94 | 398 | 88 | 44 | 6 | 48% | 3.3 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.60 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 29 | 14 | 94 | 398 | 88 | 44 | 6 | 48% | 3.3 | 22.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 1.5% | 4.39 | 3.46 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 55 | 261 | 55 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.4% | 11.1% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 4.61 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 55 | 261 | 55 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 4.88 | 4.04 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 1 | 11 | 52 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 14% | 1.5 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 5.91 | 4.89 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 1 | 11 | 52 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 14% | 1.5 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 5.91 | 5.16 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 107 | 42 | 22 | 96% | 5.2 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 5.01 | 5.63 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 107 | 42 | 22 | 96% | 5.2 | 21.3% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 4.4% | 5.01 | 4.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 18 | 16 | 81 | 361 | 73 | 43 | 15 | 89% | 4.5 | 16.6% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.89 | 6.04 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 66 | 277 | 50 | 24 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 5.36 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | NYM | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 5.36 | 5.36 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 147 | 638 | 123 | 67 | 27 | — | — | 19.3% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 5.65 | 5.73 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 5.36 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 72 | 302 | 55 | 27 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 5.39 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 66 | 277 | 50 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 5.51 | 5.64 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 5.39 | 5.48 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 26 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.0% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 5.51 | 5.64 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 57 | 242 | 44 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 5.46 | 5.19 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 153 | 80 | 38 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 5.46 | 5.19 | +0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 163 | 88 | 547 | 2365 | 422 | 288 | 90 | 54% | 3.4 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.66 | 5.23 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 32 | 200 | 865 | 154 | 105 | 33 | 54% | 3.4 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.66 | 5.23 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryce Conley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.36 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 4.2% | — | 5.56 | 18.1% | 8.8% | 137 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 83 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 78 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 76 |
| Jerome Williams R 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 74 |
| Phil Hughes R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.03 | 15.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | .328 | 6.34 | 21.1% | 15.2% | 33 | +1.31 | 4.61 | 301 | 74 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 74 |
| Randy Wynne R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.58 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | .283 | 7.08 | 11.0% | 6.9% | 60 | +1.50 | 4.52 | 461 | 73 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 73 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 73 |
| Scott Copeland R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.72 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 4.5% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 569 | 72 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 71 |
| Scott McGregor R 2023 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 71 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 70 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.57 | 20.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .341 | 3.72 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 59 | -0.85 | 2.71 | 598 | 70 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 135 | 69 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.37 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 4.4% | .283 | 4.35 | 14.9% | 5.3% | 144 | -1.02 | 3.91 | 577 | 69 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 6.54 FIP | 31 | SP- | 6.54 | 17.2% | 9.2% | 6.8% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 258 | 69 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 68 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.11 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.76 | 2.49 | 433 | 68 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 71 | 18.1% | 9.0% | 1.69 | 5.42 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |