Bryce Conley — OGILVIE

Bryce Conley P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION112 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%17.3%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 119 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	20	16	85	359	98	37	8	80%	4.2	20.2%	12.2%	8.0%	3.2%	4.46	4.71	—
2018	23	A RAW	Beloit Snappers	20	16	85	359	98	37	8	80%	4.2	27.3%	10.3%	17.0%	2.2%	4.46	3.32	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	102	432	98	59	11	76%	4.1	17.0%	16.0%	1.0%	3.1%	3.43	5.40	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	102	432	98	59	11	76%	4.1	22.7%	13.7%	9.0%	2.5%	3.43	4.31	—
2021	26	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	29	14	94	398	88	44	6	48%	3.3	17.9%	12.2%	5.7%	2.2%	4.39	4.31	—
2021	26	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	29	14	94	398	88	44	6	48%	3.3	22.1%	11.1%	11.1%	1.5%	4.39	3.46	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	55	261	55	28	6	0%	1.3	16.4%	11.1%	5.3%	2.0%	4.88	4.22	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	55	261	55	28	6	0%	1.3	21.1%	10.7%	10.3%	2.3%	4.88	4.04	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	1	11	52	11	6	2	14%	1.5	21.2%	11.5%	9.6%	3.8%	5.91	4.89	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	1	11	52	11	6	2	14%	1.5	21.2%	11.5%	9.6%	3.8%	5.91	4.89	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	1	11	52	11	6	2	14%	1.5	21.2%	11.5%	9.6%	3.8%	5.91	5.16	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	119	502	107	42	22	96%	5.2	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	5.1%	5.01	5.47	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	119	502	107	42	22	96%	5.2	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	5.1%	5.01	5.47	—
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	119	502	107	42	22	96%	5.2	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	4.4%	5.01	4.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	29	18	112	487	115	52	19	62%	3.9	19.2%	11.1%	8.0%	4.6%	5.48	5.44	—
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	29	18	112	487	115	52	19	62%	3.9	19.2%	11.1%	8.0%	4.6%	5.48	5.44	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AA RAW	NYM	24	14	93	405	104	37	17	58%	3.9	25.7%	9.1%	16.5%	4.2%	5.81	4.39	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	NYM	5	4	19	82	11	15	2	80%	3.7	13.4%	18.3%	-4.9%	2.4%	3.86	5.62	—
ROS	31	MLB MLE	NYM	1	1	7	30	5	2	1	100%	7.0	17.3%	8.0%	9.2%	4.1%	5.30	5.30	-0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	119	517	120	54	20	—	—	23.3%	10.5%	12.7%	3.9%	5.47	5.43	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	72	302	53	26	13	100%	6.5	17.4%	8.6%	8.9%	4.3%	5.33	5.42	-0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	66	277	48	25	12	100%	6.6	17.4%	9.0%	8.3%	4.4%	5.46	5.59	-0.5
2027	32	MLB CTX	NYM	4	4	22	93	16	8	4	100%	5.5	17.4%	8.6%	8.9%	4.3%	5.33	5.42	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	NYM	5	5	34	144	25	13	6	100%	6.8	17.4%	9.0%	8.3%	4.4%	5.46	5.59	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	56	237	41	21	10	100%	6.2	17.4%	8.8%	8.6%	4.4%	5.41	5.14	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	146	75	36	100%	6.2	17.4%	8.8%	8.6%	4.4%	5.41	5.14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		174	90	578	2491	452	292	89	52%	3.3	18.2%	11.7%	6.5%	3.6%	4.64	5.01	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	31	200	862	157	101	31	52%	3.3	18.2%	11.7%	6.5%	3.6%	4.64	5.01	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Conley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	17.3%	8.0%	4.1%	—	5.50	17.4%	8.6%	137	+0.20	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	83
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	79
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	76
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	75
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	75
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	74
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	73
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.30	287	73
Matt Cain R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	31	SP-	4.95	18.1%	7.8%	4.4%	.313	4.82	13.2%	5.6%	124	-0.13	4.82	294	73
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	71
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	70
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	69
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	69
Casey Coleman R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	31	SP-	4.79	15.2%	7.9%	3.6%	.344	5.06	18.4%	9.4%	78	+0.27	2.95	306	69
J.J. Hoover R 2019 · 6.40 FIP	31	SP-	6.40	17.2%	9.2%	6.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.22	258	68
Tyler Cloyd R 2018 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	16.1%	6.0%	4.3%	.317	5.21	18.9%	9.4%	67	+0.37	3.89	250	68
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	68
Doug Fister R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	14.0%	4.7%	3.1%	.302	4.33	16.2%	8.3%	352	+0.11	3.63	455	67
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	355	67
Clay Buchholz R 2016 · 4.94 FIP	31	SP-	4.94	15.8%	9.2%	3.7%	.260	4.18	17.8%	11.6%	180	-0.76	2.51	433	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	71	17.4%	8.5%	1.65	5.36
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.1	74	18.2%	7.8%	1.51	5.02