Joe Record — OGILVIE

Joe Record P Durham Bulls

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 232 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

K%21.4%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	55	242	68	14	1	0%	1.6	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	0.4%	5.07	2.64	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	55	242	68	14	1	0%	1.6	28.1%	5.8%	22.3%	0.4%	5.07	1.63	—
2021	26	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	19	7	62	259	53	36	5	37%	3.2	16.6%	15.3%	1.3%	2.2%	3.36	4.82	—
2021	26	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	19	7	62	259	53	36	5	37%	3.2	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	1.9%	3.36	4.19	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	60	271	64	33	3	2%	1.3	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	1.3%	4.62	3.78	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	60	271	64	33	3	2%	1.3	23.6%	12.2%	11.4%	1.1%	4.62	3.27	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	50	0	53	224	52	29	2	0%	1.1	19.3%	11.7%	7.6%	1.1%	3.71	3.55	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	50	0	53	224	52	29	2	0%	1.1	19.3%	11.7%	7.6%	1.1%	3.71	3.55	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	50	0	53	224	52	29	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.9%	10.3%	0.9%	3.71	3.27	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	46	3	58	271	70	31	4	7%	1.3	21.4%	10.3%	11.1%	1.5%	4.47	3.43	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	46	3	58	271	70	31	4	7%	1.3	21.4%	10.3%	11.1%	1.5%	4.47	3.43	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	46	3	58	271	70	31	4	7%	1.3	25.8%	11.4%	14.4%	1.5%	4.47	3.19	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	TB	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	21.4%	10.3%	11.1%	2.6%	4.40	4.40	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TB	33	0	34	145	31	15	4	0%	1.0	21.1%	10.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.53	4.62	-0.0
2027	32	MLB CTX	TB	12	0	13	55	12	6	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.53	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	53	11	6	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.53	4.24	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	95	32	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.53	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		195	11	289	1267	244	146	17	6%	1.5	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	1.3%	4.24	3.66	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	8	200	878	169	101	12	6%	1.5	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	1.3%	4.24	3.66	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Record (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	21.4%	10.3%	2.6%	—	4.62	21.1%	10.6%	34	+0.22	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	90
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	85
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	85
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.28	244	84
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	83
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	83
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	83
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	83
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	83
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	82
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	81
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	81
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	80
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	80
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	80
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	31	SU	3.50	16.4%	8.4%	1.3%	.308	4.77	19.3%	7.3%	90	+1.27	3.50	170	79
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	79
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	79
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	78
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	21.3%	10.4%	1.06	4.46
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21