Joe Record

P Durham Bulls

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 232 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	27	MIX2 levels	45	1	60	4.62	3.27	23.6%	12.2%	—	K 20.1% · BB 13.0% · FIP 3.78
2023	28	AAAHOU	50	0	53	3.71	3.27	23.2%	12.9%	—	K 20.0% · BB 11.7% · FIP 3.49
2024	29	AAATB	46	3	58	4.47	3.19	25.8%	11.4%	—	K 22.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.37
2025	30	No MLB games played
2026	31	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	32	MLBTB	4	0	4	4.37	4.37	22.7%	9.7%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBTB	10	0	11	4.52	4.62	22.3%	10.1%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Arcenio Leon (age 32) · Mike Broadway (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%22.7%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%13.0%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	55	242	68	14	1	0%	1.6	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	0.4%	5.07	2.64	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	55	242	68	14	1	0%	1.6	28.1%	5.8%	22.3%	0.4%	5.07	1.63	—
2021	26	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	19	7	62	259	53	36	5	37%	3.2	16.6%	15.3%	1.3%	2.2%	3.36	4.82	—
2021	26	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	19	7	62	259	53	36	5	37%	3.2	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	1.9%	3.36	4.19	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	60	271	64	33	3	2%	1.3	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	1.3%	4.62	3.78	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	60	271	64	33	3	2%	1.3	23.6%	12.2%	11.4%	1.1%	4.62	3.27	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	50	0	53	224	52	29	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.7%	8.3%	1.1%	3.71	3.49	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	50	0	53	224	52	29	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.9%	10.3%	0.9%	3.71	3.27	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	46	3	58	271	70	31	4	7%	1.3	22.2%	10.3%	11.9%	1.5%	4.47	3.37	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	46	3	58	271	70	31	4	7%	1.3	22.2%	10.3%	11.9%	1.5%	4.47	3.37	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	46	3	58	271	70	31	4	7%	1.3	25.8%	11.4%	14.4%	1.5%	4.47	3.19	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	TB	4	0	4	17	4	2	0	0%	1.0	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	TB	28	0	30	125	28	13	4	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.52	4.62	-0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.52	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.52	4.24	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	92	18	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.52	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		195	11	289	1267	248	146	17	6%	1.5	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	1.3%	4.24	3.64	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	8	200	878	172	101	12	6%	1.5	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	1.3%	4.24	3.64	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 58 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.37 (+0.19)K% 25.8% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.83%	—	×0.860	22.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.44%	—	×0.900	10.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷1.061	×1.100	1.53%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 53 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.49 (+0.22)K% 23.2% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.21%	—	×0.860	19.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.95%	—	×0.900	11.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.89%	÷0.896	×1.100	1.10%

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 38 IPFIP 3.59 → 4.06 (+0.48)K% 21.8% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.84%	—	×0.880	19.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.92%	—	×1.050	11.47%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷0.917	×1.100	2.07%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.59 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 22 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.28 (+0.61)K% 26.8% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.80%	—	×0.810	21.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.43%	—	×1.100	15.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.040	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 62 IPFIP 4.19 → 4.82 (+0.63)K% 20.5% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.46%	—	×0.810	16.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.90%	—	×1.100	15.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.93%	÷1.074	×1.200	2.16%

Result: FIP 4.19 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 47 IPFIP 2.06 → 2.64 (+0.57)K% 24.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.53%	—	×0.770	18.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.13%	—	×1.150	7.05%
HR / BF /BF	0.47%	÷1.362	×1.250	0.43%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 172).

Result: FIP 2.06 → 2.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 8 IPFIP -0.98 → 0.27 (+1.25)K% 53.3% → 39.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	53.33%	—	×0.740	39.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.33%	—	×1.180	3.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.997	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP -0.98 → 0.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Record (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	22.7%	9.7%	2.9%	—	4.62	22.3%	12.2%	30	+0.25	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	90
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	85
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	85
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	84
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	80
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	79
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	79
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	78
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	78
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	78
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	78
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	78
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	77
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	77
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	77
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	76
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	76
Grant Sides R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	30	SU	3.31	21.7%	9.8%	1.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	76
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	75
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	22.6%	9.9%	1.16	4.44
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*