Joe Record
P
Durham Bulls
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 232 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%22.9%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 55 | 242 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.9% | 7.1% | 11.8% | 0.3% | 5.07 | 2.59 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 55 | 242 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 28.1% | 5.8% | 22.3% | 0.4% | 5.07 | 1.63 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 19 | 7 | 62 | 259 | 53 | 36 | 5 | 37% | 3.2 | 16.6% | 15.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.36 | 4.74 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 19 | 7 | 62 | 259 | 53 | 36 | 5 | 37% | 3.2 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 3.36 | 4.19 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 60 | 271 | 64 | 33 | 3 | 2% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 13.0% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 4.62 | 3.86 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 60 | 271 | 64 | 33 | 3 | 2% | 1.3 | 23.6% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 1.1% | 4.62 | 3.27 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 52 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 6.8% | 1.2% | 3.71 | 3.78 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 52 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 0.9% | 3.71 | 3.27 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 46 | 3 | 58 | 271 | 70 | 31 | 4 | 7% | 1.3 | 22.7% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 1.4% | 4.47 | 3.50 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 46 | 3 | 58 | 271 | 70 | 31 | 4 | 7% | 1.3 | 25.8% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 1.5% | 4.47 | 3.19 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | TB | 35 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 36 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TB | 33 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TB | 30 | 0 | 32 | 133 | 29 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TB | 27 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TB | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TB | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TB | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 5.03 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 41 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.41 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 184 | 94 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 195 | 11 | 289 | 1267 | 250 | 155 | 17 | 6% | 1.5 | 19.8% | 12.2% | 7.5% | 1.3% | 4.24 | 3.70 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 135 | 8 | 200 | 878 | 174 | 107 | 12 | 6% | 1.5 | 19.8% | 12.2% | 7.5% | 1.3% | 4.24 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Record (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.77 | 22.1% | 10.8% | 95 | +0.45 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 90 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 85 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 85 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 85 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 84 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 0.9% | .333 | 3.74 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.54 | 3.20 | 244 | 82 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 82 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 82 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 81 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 81 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 81 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 80 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 80 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 80 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 80 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 78 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 78 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 78 |
| Curtis Partch R 2024 · 3.14 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.14 | 21.7% | 12.5% | 0.5% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 124 | 78 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 33 | 22.3% | 11.1% | 1.16 | 4.55 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |