Joe Record
P
Durham Bulls
+0.4
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 232 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%12.2%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | 35 | 0 | 55 | 242 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 18.9% | 7.1% | 0.4% | 5.07 | 2.63 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 19 | 7 | 62 | 259 | 53 | 36 | 5 | 16.6% | 15.3% | 2.2% | 3.36 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 45 | 1 | 60 | 271 | 64 | 33 | 3 | 20.1% | 13.0% | 1.3% | 4.62 | 3.79 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 52 | 29 | 2 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 1.1% | 3.71 | 3.68 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 46 | 3 | 58 | 271 | 70 | 31 | 4 | 22.7% | 12.0% | 1.5% | 4.47 | 3.53 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | TB | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 51 | 24 | 6 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TB | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 49 | 23 | 6 | 22.7% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TB | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 46 | 22 | 6 | 22.4% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TB | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 43 | 21 | 6 | 22.1% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | TB | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 40 | 20 | 6 | 21.8% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | TB | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 37 | 19 | 5 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 195 | 11 | 289 | 1267 | 250 | 155 | 17 | 19.8% | 12.2% | 1.3% | 4.24 | 3.71 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 135 | 8 | 200 | 878 | 173 | 107 | 12 | 19.8% | 12.2% | 1.3% | 4.24 | 3.71 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Record (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.50 | 22.4% | 11.7% | 146 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 89 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 87 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 87 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 86 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 85 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 85 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 84 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 84 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.39 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.70 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 410 | 83 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 83 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 82 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 81 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 81 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 81 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 80 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 227 | 80 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 79 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 79 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 79 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.