Braxton Bragg — OGILVIE

Braxton Bragg P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 207 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10193vR 85

ERA3.59

FIP3.59

K%26.0%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%19.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.4M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$14M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	0	7	29	6	3	1	0%	1.7	20.7%	10.3%	10.3%	3.4%	6.75	4.56	—
2023	22	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	0	7	29	6	3	1	0%	1.7	20.7%	10.3%	10.3%	3.4%	6.75	4.56	—
2023	22	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	0	7	29	6	3	1	0%	1.7	20.7%	10.3%	10.3%	3.4%	6.75	4.60	—
2024	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	24	20	96	405	122	22	9	83%	4.0	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	3.0%	3.36	3.70	—
2024	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	24	20	96	405	122	22	9	83%	4.0	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	3.0%	3.36	3.70	—
2024	23	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	24	20	96	405	122	22	9	83%	4.0	30.1%	5.4%	24.7%	2.2%	3.36	2.47	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	59	235	77	17	3	92%	4.9	26.2%	8.1%	18.2%	1.2%	1.68	2.58	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	59	235	77	17	3	92%	4.9	26.2%	8.1%	18.2%	1.2%	1.68	2.58	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	59	235	77	17	3	92%	4.9	32.8%	7.2%	25.5%	1.3%	1.68	2.02	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	BAL	1	1	6	25	7	2	1	100%	6.0	26.0%	6.6%	19.3%	2.7%	3.59	3.59	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	87	366	94	25	10	100%	6.2	25.8%	6.7%	19.1%	2.7%	3.65	3.64	+1.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	85	361	92	25	10	100%	6.1	25.5%	6.9%	18.6%	2.8%	3.71	3.72	+1.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	83	350	88	25	10	100%	5.9	25.2%	7.0%	18.1%	2.9%	3.79	3.83	+1.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	79	334	90	22	10	100%	6.1	26.9%	6.5%	20.4%	3.0%	3.74	3.70	+1.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	74	314	83	21	10	100%	6.2	26.5%	6.8%	19.7%	3.2%	3.82	3.88	+0.9
2032	31	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	69	293	77	21	10	100%	5.8	26.1%	7.1%	19.0%	3.5%	3.98	4.08	+0.7
2033	32	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	64	271	70	20	10	100%	5.8	25.7%	7.5%	18.1%	3.7%	4.18	4.31	+0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	38	160	41	11	5	100%	6.3	25.8%	6.7%	19.1%	2.8%	3.72	3.71	+0.6
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	54	228	58	16	7	100%	6.0	25.5%	6.9%	18.6%	2.9%	3.78	3.79	+0.8
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	63	266	67	19	8	100%	6.3	25.2%	7.0%	18.1%	3.0%	3.86	3.90	+0.8
2030	29	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	65	274	74	18	9	100%	5.9	26.9%	6.5%	20.4%	3.2%	3.82	3.78	+0.9
2031	30	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	64	270	72	18	9	100%	5.8	26.5%	6.8%	19.7%	3.4%	3.90	3.96	+0.8
2032	31	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	62	262	68	19	9	100%	6.2	26.1%	7.1%	19.0%	3.6%	4.07	4.17	+0.6
2033	32	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	58	245	63	18	10	100%	5.8	25.7%	7.5%	18.1%	3.9%	4.27	4.40	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	67	403	1701	442	118	56	100%	6.0	26.0%	6.9%	19.0%	3.3%	3.93	3.59	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	219	59	28	100%	6.0	26.0%	6.9%	19.0%	3.3%	3.93	3.59	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		40	31	162	669	158	48	16	78%	4.0	23.6%	7.2%	16.4%	2.4%	2.89	3.34	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	38	200	826	195	59	20	77%	4.0	23.6%	7.2%	16.4%	2.4%	2.89	3.34	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braxton Bragg (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.59	26.0%	6.6%	2.7%	—	3.73	25.5%	18.6%	255	+0.14	—	—	—
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	78
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	77
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.93	22.0%	13.5%	250	+1.07	1.93	278	76
Kutter Crawford R 2021 · 3.30 FIP	25	SP	3.30	29.1%	5.6%	3.5%	.321	4.23	23.6%	16.6%	415	+0.93	3.30	741	75
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	75
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	73
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	72
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	72
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	72
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	72
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	72
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	820	72
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	71
Mitch White R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	22.7%	8.3%	4.4%	.309	3.53	20.9%	12.9%	194	-1.11	2.49	626	71
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	70
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	70
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP	4.69	26.3%	7.6%	5.2%	.272	4.55	19.5%	11.7%	166	-0.14	3.87	506	70
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	76	25.9%	6.9%	1.18	3.80
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31