Braxton Bragg
P
Chesapeake Baysox
+1.1
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 207 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.9 · 2026
ERA3.96
FIP3.96
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.3%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%15.9%
IP71
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2026
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 4 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 24 | 20 | 96 | 405 | 122 | 22 | 9 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 3.36 | 3.78 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 12 | 11 | 59 | 235 | 77 | 17 | 3 | 26.2% | 8.1% | 1.3% | 1.68 | 2.60 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 73 | 25 | 8 | 24.3% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.96 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 74 | 25 | 8 | 24.4% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 3.98 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 73 | 25 | 8 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 4.01 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 71 | 25 | 8 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.06 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 69 | 25 | 8 | 24.1% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.11 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 67 | 25 | 8 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.17 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 64 | 24 | 8 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 61 | 23 | 8 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 57 | 23 | 8 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 53 | 22 | 8 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 21.9% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 40 | 31 | 162 | 669 | 158 | 48 | 17 | 23.6% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 2.89 | 3.40 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 38 | 200 | 826 | 195 | 59 | 21 | 23.6% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 2.89 | 3.40 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braxton Bragg (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.96 | 24.3% | 8.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.02 | 24.3% | 15.9% | 212 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.10 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .257 | 2.97 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 2.43 | 225 | 92 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 90 |
| Trent Harris R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.46 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .258 | 3.75 | 23.1% | 14.7% | 57 | +0.29 | 3.46 | 134 | 89 |
| Casey Cobb R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.52 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .261 | 5.56 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +2.04 | 3.52 | 191 | 89 |
| Simon Castro R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 88 |
| James Farris R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 24.4% | 6.6% | 3.4% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 170 | 87 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 87 |
| Travis Hissong R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.02 | 23.6% | 4.9% | 2.4% | .256 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 50 | +1.11 | 3.02 | 122 | 86 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 85 |
| Archie Bradley R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.52 | 25.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .275 | 3.27 | 23.6% | 14.2% | 141 | -0.25 | 2.22 | 570 | 85 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 85 |
| Ryan Dull R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.11 | 25.5% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .242 | 3.93 | 25.2% | 19.2% | 170 | +0.82 | 3.11 | 345 | 85 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2029 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 85 |
| Danny Barnes R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.17 | 22.9% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .355 | 3.37 | 24.9% | 17.6% | 182 | +0.20 | 1.73 | 243 | 85 |
| Sam Dyson R 2028 · 2.67 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.67 | 23.0% | 6.5% | 1.3% | .285 | 3.88 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 195 | +1.21 | 2.67 | 333 | 84 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 84 |
| Joe Navilhon R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.36 | 24.1% | 5.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 3.12 | 22.5% | 15.1% | 110 | -0.24 | 2.25 | 273 | 84 |
| Mike Morin R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.47 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.76 | 16.4% | 11.2% | 176 | +0.29 | 3.03 | 302 | 84 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.37 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 134 | 83 |
| Steven Wilson R 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .271 | 3.68 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.34 | 3.61 | 311 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | -$1M |
| Totals | $9M | $17M | +$8M | ||