Braxton Bragg

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 207 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#611ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	ABAL	4	0	7	6.75	4.60	20.7%	10.3%	—	K 20.7% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.56
2024	23	ABAL	24	20	96	3.36	2.47	30.1%	5.4%	—	K 22.3% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.70
2025	24	MIX2 levels	12	11	59	1.68	2.02	32.8%	7.2%	—	K 26.2% · BB 8.1% · FIP 2.58
2026	25	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	26	MLBBAL	1	1	1	3.67	3.67	26.3%	6.9%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBBAL	4	4	26	3.83	3.84	26.0%	7.2%	0.5
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBBAL	7	7	40	3.93	3.97	25.7%	7.5%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

CompsErik Hiljus (age 28) · Andy Ferguson (age 26) · K.C. Hunt (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 87

ERA3.67

FIP3.67

K%26.3%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%19.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	0	7	29	6	3	1	0%	1.7	20.7%	10.3%	10.3%	3.4%	6.75	4.56	—
2023	22	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	0	7	29	6	3	1	0%	1.7	20.7%	10.3%	10.3%	3.4%	6.75	4.60	—
2024	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	24	20	96	405	122	22	9	83%	4.0	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	3.0%	3.36	3.70	—
2024	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	24	20	96	405	122	22	9	83%	4.0	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	3.0%	3.36	3.70	—
2024	23	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	24	20	96	405	122	22	9	83%	4.0	30.1%	5.4%	24.7%	2.2%	3.36	2.47	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	59	235	77	17	3	92%	4.9	26.2%	8.1%	18.2%	1.2%	1.68	2.58	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	59	235	77	17	3	92%	4.9	26.2%	8.1%	18.2%	1.2%	1.68	2.58	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	59	235	77	17	3	92%	4.9	32.8%	7.2%	25.5%	1.3%	1.68	2.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BAL	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	26.3%	6.9%	19.4%	2.8%	3.67	3.67	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	69	291	76	21	8	100%	5.8	26.0%	7.2%	18.8%	2.9%	3.76	3.77	+1.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	67	282	73	21	8	100%	6.1	25.7%	7.5%	18.2%	3.0%	3.86	3.90	+1.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	64	270	68	21	8	100%	5.8	25.3%	7.8%	17.5%	3.1%	3.98	4.05	+1.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	26	110	29	8	3	100%	6.5	26.0%	7.2%	18.8%	3.0%	3.83	3.84	+0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	40	169	43	13	5	100%	5.7	25.7%	7.5%	18.2%	3.1%	3.93	3.97	+0.7
2030	29	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	45	190	48	15	6	100%	5.6	25.3%	7.8%	17.5%	3.3%	4.06	4.13	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	111	468	120	35	15	100%	6.2	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	3.2%	3.96	3.62	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	216	63	27	100%	6.0	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	3.2%	3.96	3.62	+4.3
Career	—	MLE		40	31	162	669	158	48	16	78%	4.0	23.6%	7.2%	16.4%	2.4%	2.89	3.34	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	38	200	826	195	59	20	77%	4.0	23.6%	7.2%	16.4%	2.4%	2.89	3.34	+3.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 43 IPFIP 2.06 → 2.65 (+0.59)K% 33.7% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.71%	—	×0.810	27.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.86%	—	×1.100	7.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.71%	÷1.248	×1.200	1.65%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 2.06 → 2.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 16 IPFIP 1.62 → 2.36 (+0.74)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.770	23.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.150	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.229	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).

Result: FIP 1.62 → 2.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 96 IPFIP 2.46 → 3.70 (+1.23)K% 30.1% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.12%	—	×0.740	22.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.43%	—	×1.180	6.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷0.952	×1.300	3.03%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.46 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 7 IPFIP 4.56 → 5.76 (+1.21)K% 20.7% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.740	15.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×1.180	12.21%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷1.020	×1.300	4.39%

Result: FIP 4.56 → 5.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braxton Bragg (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	3.90	25.7%	18.2%	200	+0.23	—	—	—
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	85
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	81
K.C. Hunt R 2024 · 2.69 FIP	24	SP-	2.69	26.8%	7.1%	1.8%	.277	4.94	17.5%	6.4%	186	+2.25	2.69	288	79
Ryan Lobus R 2024 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP-	3.68	27.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.277	3.65	22.1%	13.2%	128	-0.03	3.59	216	76
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	75
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	75
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	73
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	72
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	71
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	71
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	71
J.P. France R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	26	SP-	4.04	27.6%	11.3%	3.4%	.306	4.38	21.0%	11.5%	292	+0.34	4.04	577	71
Kutter Crawford R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP-	4.47	21.9%	7.7%	4.1%	.316	4.15	24.1%	17.4%	313	-0.32	3.30	741	70
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	70
Michael Grove R 2023 · 3.74 FIP	26	SP-	3.74	25.9%	5.6%	3.9%	.354	3.24	24.7%	16.6%	86	-0.50	3.01	396	70
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	70
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	69
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP	4.67	26.6%	7.6%	5.2%	.272	4.47	19.9%	12.1%	172	-0.20	3.87	512	69
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	68
David Phelps R 2013 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	21.0%	9.0%	2.0%	.314	3.56	21.5%	13.3%	312	-0.01	2.50	672	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	25.8%	7.3%	1.14	3.81
Blake Parker ('21)	1.7	58	26.7%	7.9%	1.30	3.47
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97
Seunghwan Oh ('19)	1.1	75	26.8%	6.0%	1.16	3.31
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*