Braxton Bragg
P
Chesapeake Baysox
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 207 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 79 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10394vR 84
ERA3.64
FIP3.64
K%26.1%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%18.9%
ROS IP79
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 4 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 6.75 | 4.56 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 4 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 6.75 | 4.60 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 24 | 20 | 96 | 405 | 122 | 22 | 9 | 83% | 4.0 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 15.9% | 3.2% | 3.36 | 3.78 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 24 | 20 | 96 | 405 | 122 | 22 | 9 | 83% | 4.0 | 30.1% | 5.4% | 24.7% | 2.2% | 3.36 | 2.47 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 11 | 59 | 235 | 77 | 17 | 3 | 92% | 4.9 | 26.2% | 8.1% | 18.2% | 1.0% | 1.68 | 2.47 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 11 | 59 | 235 | 77 | 17 | 3 | 92% | 4.9 | 32.8% | 7.2% | 25.5% | 1.3% | 1.68 | 2.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 87 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.1% | 7.2% | 18.9% | 2.6% | 3.64 | 3.64 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 79 | 334 | 87 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.0% | 7.4% | 18.6% | 2.7% | 3.70 | 3.69 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 85 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.8% | 7.6% | 18.2% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 3.77 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 76 | 320 | 82 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.6% | 7.8% | 17.7% | 2.9% | 3.85 | 3.89 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 305 | 77 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 8.1% | 17.2% | 3.0% | 3.96 | 4.03 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 72 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.5% | 3.2% | 4.11 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 268 | 66 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.5% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 3.4% | 4.29 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 247 | 60 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 14.9% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.63 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 9 | 9 | 54 | 227 | 54 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 4.0% | 4.73 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 48 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 4.3% | 4.99 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 38 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.0% | 7.4% | 18.6% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 3.75 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 53 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.8% | 7.6% | 18.2% | 2.9% | 3.82 | 3.83 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 62 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.6% | 7.8% | 17.7% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 63 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.3% | 8.1% | 17.2% | 3.1% | 4.02 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 61 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.5% | 3.3% | 4.18 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 58 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.5% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 3.6% | 4.36 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 54 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 14.9% | 3.8% | 4.58 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 50 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 4.1% | 4.81 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 42 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 4.4% | 5.08 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 77 | 77 | 461 | 1945 | 482 | 166 | 67 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.8% | 8.5% | 16.2% | 3.4% | 4.27 | 3.98 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 209 | 72 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.8% | 8.5% | 16.2% | 3.4% | 4.27 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 31 | 162 | 669 | 158 | 48 | 16 | 78% | 4.0 | 23.6% | 7.2% | 16.4% | 2.4% | 2.89 | 3.36 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 38 | 200 | 826 | 195 | 59 | 20 | 77% | 4.0 | 23.6% | 7.2% | 16.4% | 2.4% | 2.89 | 3.36 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braxton Bragg (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.64 | 26.1% | 7.2% | 2.6% | — | 3.78 | 25.8% | 18.2% | 233 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Andy Ferguson R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 83 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 79 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 79 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 78 |
| Jacob Kisting R 2024 · 2.74 FIP | 23 | SP | 2.74 | 21.9% | 5.9% | 1.4% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 144 | 78 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 76 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2026 · 2.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 2.55 | 28.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .303 | 3.04 | 27.6% | 20.2% | 284 | +0.49 | 2.55 | 374 | 75 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 75 |
| Kutter Crawford R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.35 | 29.1% | 5.6% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.17 | 23.6% | 16.6% | 415 | +0.82 | 3.35 | 741 | 74 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.56 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .271 | 3.14 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 226 | -0.42 | 1.35 | 797 | 74 |
| Brendan Beck R 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 73 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 73 |
| Mat Latos R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 73 |
| Mitch White R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.58 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 4.3% | .309 | 3.59 | 20.9% | 12.9% | 194 | -0.99 | 2.49 | 626 | 73 |
| Jack Perkins R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.21 | 28.7% | 11.5% | 1.9% | .239 | 3.98 | 27.3% | 18.6% | 58 | +0.77 | 2.95 | 324 | 72 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.27 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 3.87 | 23.5% | 14.9% | 261 | -0.40 | 3.80 | 651 | 72 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.24 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 1.4% | .291 | 4.21 | 15.1% | 5.6% | 183 | +0.97 | 3.24 | 289 | 72 |
| Christian Scott R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.64 | 24.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .249 | 3.95 | 27.5% | 17.8% | 68 | -0.69 | 2.65 | 302 | 72 |
| Zebby Matthews R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.15 | 25.8% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .349 | 5.41 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 101 | +2.26 | 3.15 | 457 | 72 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 68 | 25.1% | 8.3% | 1.23 | 4.09 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| Brad Hand ('23) | 9 | 64 | 27.2% | 8.6% | 0.89 | 3.53 |