K.C. Hunt — OGILVIE

K.C. Hunt P Durham Bulls

+1.2 WAR

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2027

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.7%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%12.9%

IP115

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2027

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	23	ROK	ACL Brewers	4	0	4	21	5	2	0	—	—	—	4.15	—	—
2024	24	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	25	14	102	401	139	25	6	26.8%	7.1%	1.7%	2.03	2.68	+3.0
2025	25	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	26	26	121	513	122	42	15	19.3%	9.0%	3.1%	4.45	4.34	+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	3	2	10	46	9	7	3	—	—	—	7.20	—	—
ROS	26	MLB	TB	21	21	115	485	105	43	14	21.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+1.2
2026 Total	26	MLB	TB	—	—	125	531	114	50	17	21.5%	9.3%	3.2%	4.60	4.02	+1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	TB	21	21	118	498	108	43	15	21.7%	8.7%	2.9%	4.36	4.36	+1.3
2028	28	MLB	TB	21	21	118	499	108	43	15	21.7%	8.7%	3.0%	4.37	4.38	+1.2
2029	29	MLB	TB	21	21	116	488	105	42	15	21.6%	8.7%	3.0%	4.40	4.42	+1.2
2030	30	MLB	TB	20	20	112	473	101	42	15	21.4%	8.8%	3.1%	4.44	4.48	+1.0
2031	31	MLB	TB	20	20	108	456	97	41	14	21.2%	8.9%	3.1%	4.51	4.55	+0.9
2032	32	MLB	TB	19	19	104	438	92	40	14	20.9%	9.1%	3.2%	4.59	4.64	+0.8
2033	33	MLB	TB	18	18	99	418	86	39	14	20.6%	9.2%	3.3%	4.68	4.73	+0.6
2034	34	MLB	TB	17	17	94	397	80	38	14	20.2%	9.4%	3.4%	4.78	4.84	+0.4
2035	35	MLB	TB	16	16	89	375	74	36	13	19.8%	9.7%	3.5%	4.89	4.97	+0.2
2036	36	MLB	TB	15	15	83	350	68	35	13	19.4%	9.9%	3.6%	5.02	5.10	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			58	42	238	981	220	84	26	22.5%	8.5%	2.7%	3.52	3.74	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—			49	35	200	826	185	71	22	22.5%	8.5%	2.7%	3.52	3.74	+3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
K.C. Hunt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	21.7%	8.8%	2.9%	—	4.39	21.7%	13.0%	352	+0.02	—	—	—
Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	26	SP-	3.79	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.90	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.11	3.79	223	90
Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.63 FIP	25	SP-	3.63	21.1%	7.1%	2.6%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	111	88
Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP-	3.98	18.4%	8.9%	2.4%	.315	5.24	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.26	3.98	115	88
Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP	25	SP-	3.85	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.58	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.73	3.85	141	88
Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP	27	SP-	3.89	17.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.286	4.13	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.24	3.89	248	87
Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	5.02	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.60	4.42	200	87
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 3.22 FIP	26	SP-	3.22	21.3%	8.8%	1.5%	.330	4.61	18.0%	7.3%	110	+1.39	3.22	221	86
Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	26	SP-	4.78	19.7%	9.7%	3.9%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.85	3.50	472	86
Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.29 FIP	26	SP-	3.29	19.3%	5.9%	1.9%	.309	2.86	25.5%	19.3%	191	-0.43	2.61	530	86
R.J. Gordon R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP-	4.31	21.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	129	85
Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP-	4.38	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	250	85
Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	26	SP-	4.28	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	270	85
Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.55 FIP	27	SP-	3.55	20.2%	6.3%	2.5%	.306	5.15	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.60	3.55	244	84
Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP	27	SP-	3.80	18.8%	8.3%	2.3%	.325	4.62	12.4%	6.9%	279	+0.82	3.80	500	84
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	19.1%	7.0%	3.3%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	194	83
Garrett Edwards R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	18.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	107	83
Danny Farquhar R 2028 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP-	3.94	22.4%	6.8%	3.4%	.324	3.78	22.0%	12.8%	135	-0.16	3.62	224	83
David Hale R 2027 · 4.26 FIP	27	SP-	4.26	16.2%	6.8%	3.1%	.343	4.14	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.12	3.32	493	83
Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	22.3%	5.7%	3.1%	.262	3.09	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.56	3.09	137	83
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	26	SP-	3.50	22.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	368	82

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$9M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$10M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.9	$4M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.8	$4M	+$1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.6	$3M	-$0.0M
Totals		$10M		$41M	+$31M