K.C. Hunt — OGILVIE

K.C. Hunt P Durham Bulls

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

K%20.3%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	4	0	4	21	5	2	0	0%	1.1	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	0.0%	4.15	2.30	—
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	4	0	4	21	5	2	0	0%	1.1	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	0.0%	4.15	2.30	—
2023	23	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	4	0	4	21	5	2	0	0%	1.1	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	0.0%	4.15	2.18	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	14	102	401	139	25	6	56%	4.1	26.8%	7.1%	19.8%	1.7%	2.03	2.69	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	14	102	401	139	25	6	56%	4.1	26.8%	7.1%	19.8%	1.7%	2.03	2.69	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	14	102	401	139	25	6	56%	4.1	34.7%	6.2%	28.4%	1.5%	2.03	1.87	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	26	26	121	513	122	42	15	100%	4.7	19.3%	9.0%	10.3%	3.0%	4.45	4.26	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	26	26	121	513	122	42	15	100%	4.7	19.3%	9.0%	10.3%	3.0%	4.45	4.26	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	26	26	121	513	122	42	15	100%	4.7	23.8%	8.2%	15.6%	2.9%	4.45	3.73	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	27	5	70	305	58	44	13	19%	2.6	13.8%	14.8%	-0.9%	4.4%	4.63	6.24	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	27	5	70	305	58	44	13	19%	2.6	13.8%	14.8%	-0.9%	4.4%	4.63	6.24	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	TB	2	1	5	21	10	1	2	50%	2.6	47.6%	4.8%	42.9%	9.5%	5.06	4.91	—
2026	26	AA RAW	TB	11	2	35	140	28	16	5	18%	3.2	20.0%	11.4%	8.6%	3.6%	3.12	4.82	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	TB	14	2	30	144	20	27	6	14%	2.1	13.9%	18.8%	-4.9%	4.2%	6.30	6.59	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	TB	6	0	6	27	5	2	1	0%	1.1	20.3%	8.5%	11.8%	2.9%	4.42	4.42	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	76	332	63	46	14	—	—	19.1%	14.0%	5.2%	4.2%	4.61	6.09	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	108	454	93	39	13	100%	6.7	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	2.9%	4.43	4.44	+0.6
2028	28	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	104	441	90	38	13	100%	7.0	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.51	+0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	100	421	85	37	13	100%	6.6	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	3.2%	4.56	4.63	+0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	94	396	79	36	13	100%	6.7	20.0%	9.0%	10.9%	3.4%	4.70	4.80	+0.1
2031	31	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	87	369	72	35	13	100%	6.7	19.6%	9.4%	10.2%	3.6%	4.88	5.00	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	40	169	35	14	5	100%	6.7	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	3.0%	4.48	4.49	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	62	262	53	22	8	100%	6.9	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	3.1%	4.52	4.56	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	70	296	60	26	10	100%	7.0	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	3.3%	4.61	4.68	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	73	308	61	28	11	100%	6.6	20.0%	9.0%	10.9%	3.5%	4.76	4.86	+0.1
2031	31	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	73	308	60	29	11	100%	6.6	19.6%	9.4%	10.2%	3.7%	4.94	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	47	320	1350	271	120	45	100%	6.8	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	3.4%	4.69	4.38	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		29	29	200	844	170	75	28	100%	6.8	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	3.4%	4.69	4.38	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		82	45	298	1240	254	122	36	55%	3.6	20.5%	9.8%	10.6%	2.9%	3.66	4.21	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	30	200	833	170	82	24	55%	3.6	20.5%	9.8%	10.6%	2.9%	3.66	4.21	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
K.C. Hunt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	20.3%	8.5%	2.9%	—	4.52	20.4%	11.8%	312	+0.10	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	85
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	84
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	84
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	26	SW	3.22	21.3%	8.8%	1.5%	.330	4.62	18.0%	7.3%	110	+1.40	3.22	221	82
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	82
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	81
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	80
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	80
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	80
TJ Shook R 2023 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	21.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.273	4.07	21.2%	12.4%	191	-0.44	3.35	451	80
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	79
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	79
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.89	16.8%	8.8%	186	+1.91	3.98	418	79
Heath Holder R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	26	SW	3.26	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.51	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.25	2.94	367	78
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	78
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	78
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	78
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.84	13.0%	3.5%	116	+0.23	2.84	307	78
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	78
Kutter Crawford R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP-	4.47	21.9%	7.7%	4.1%	.316	4.15	24.1%	17.4%	313	-0.32	3.30	741	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	96	20.2%	8.8%	1.22	4.57
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14