Brendan Beck
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 218 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.7 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION100 act + 48 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 88
ERA3.81
FIP3.81
K%19.2%
BB%5.7%
K-BB%13.5%
ROS IP48
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 34 | 129 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 3.4 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 15.8% | 2.1% | 1.59 | 3.18 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 34 | 129 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 3.4 | 31.0% | 5.4% | 25.6% | 1.6% | 1.59 | 2.13 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 131 | 522 | 123 | 36 | 14 | 92% | 5.1 | 20.0% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 3.36 | 3.80 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 131 | 522 | 123 | 36 | 14 | 92% | 5.1 | 23.6% | 6.9% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 3.36 | 3.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 19 | 18 | 100 | 401 | 97 | 34 | 13 | 95% | 5.3 | 22.1% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 3.51 | 3.74 | +1.9 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 48 | 204 | 39 | 12 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 3.81 | 3.81 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 39 | 11 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 3.87 | 3.87 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 148 | 605 | 136 | 46 | 19 | — | — | 22.5% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 3.61 | 3.76 | +2.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 55 | 232 | 136 | 46 | 19 | — | — | 58.6% | 19.6% | 39.0% | 8.3% | 9.78 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 82 | 346 | 64 | 23 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.5% | 6.6% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 4.69 | 4.72 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 78 | 330 | 68 | 20 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 6.1% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 4.59 | 4.55 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 12 | 12 | 74 | 310 | 63 | 20 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 4.66 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 61 | 22 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.5% | 6.6% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 4.76 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 64 | 19 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.5% | 6.1% | 14.4% | 3.8% | 4.67 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 60 | 19 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 13.7% | 4.0% | 4.74 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 47 | 277 | 1172 | 228 | 77 | 46 | 98% | 5.8 | 19.5% | 6.6% | 12.9% | 3.9% | 4.69 | 4.45 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 847 | 165 | 56 | 33 | 98% | 5.8 | 19.5% | 6.6% | 12.9% | 3.9% | 4.69 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 55 | 52 | 265 | 1052 | 222 | 80 | 27 | 95% | 4.8 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 3.19 | 3.70 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 39 | 200 | 793 | 168 | 60 | 21 | 95% | 4.8 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 3.19 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brendan Beck (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.21 | 18.8% | 5.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.66 | 19.7% | 13.3% | 234 | +0.45 | — | — | — |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 82 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 80 |
| Bryan Evans R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 79 |
| Markus Solbach R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 79 |
| Jason Forjet R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 79 |
| Cole Johnson R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.48 | 14.0% | 4.8% | 1.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 101 | 79 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.99 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 3.60 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.39 | 2.98 | 258 | 78 |
| Barry Enright R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.26 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% | .306 | 3.78 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 226 | +0.52 | 3.11 | 315 | 76 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 76 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 76 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 76 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 76 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 76 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 75 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.11 | 15.0% | 6.0% | 2.8% | .333 | 5.58 | 14.7% | 5.7% | 49 | +1.47 | 1.98 | 354 | 74 |
| Matt Cain R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 74 |
| Tyler Herron R 2028 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.29 | 13.4% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .389 | 4.17 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 60 | -0.12 | 4.17 | 117 | 74 |
| Dustin Beggs R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.25 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 2.8% | .329 | 5.11 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 48 | +0.86 | 3.46 | 407 | 74 |
| Connor Grey R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .286 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 104 | +0.44 | 2.81 | 461 | 73 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.84 | 14.6% | 6.6% | 3.9% | .294 | 5.26 | 11.3% | 1.8% | 91 | +0.42 | 4.25 | 412 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 72 | 19.6% | 6.3% | 1.38 | 4.56 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |