Brendan Beck — OGILVIE

Brendan Beck P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 218 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.9 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION139 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.79

FIP3.79

K%18.8%

BB%4.8%

K-BB%13.9%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL—60

CMD7070

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.9M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	34	129	40	7	2	100%	3.4	22.5%	6.7%	15.8%	2.1%	1.59	3.19	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	34	129	40	7	2	100%	3.4	22.5%	6.7%	15.8%	2.1%	1.59	3.19	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	34	129	40	7	2	100%	3.4	31.0%	5.4%	25.6%	1.6%	1.59	2.13	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	131	522	123	36	14	92%	5.1	19.4%	6.7%	12.7%	2.8%	3.36	3.85	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	131	522	123	36	14	92%	5.1	19.4%	6.7%	12.7%	2.8%	3.36	3.85	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	131	522	123	36	14	92%	5.1	23.6%	6.9%	16.7%	2.7%	3.36	3.44	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	1	8	34	5	5	4	33%	2.6	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	11.8%	8.22	10.53	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	27	25	139	553	151	44	14	93%	5.1	23.3%	6.8%	16.6%	2.1%	3.05	3.15	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	27	25	139	553	151	44	14	93%	5.1	23.3%	6.8%	16.6%	2.1%	3.05	3.15	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	NYY	24	24	131	519	146	39	10	100%	5.5	28.1%	7.5%	20.6%	1.9%	2.75	2.73	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	NYY	3	1	8	34	5	5	4	33%	2.6	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	11.8%	8.22	10.18	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	NYY	3	1	8	34	5	5	4	33%	2.6	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	11.8%	8.22	10.18	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	NYY	1	1	7	31	6	2	1	100%	7.4	18.8%	4.8%	13.9%	3.0%	3.79	3.79	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	NYY	1	1	7	30	6	1	1	100%	7.0	18.8%	4.8%	13.9%	3.2%	3.90	3.90	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	146	584	157	46	15	—	—	26.8%	7.8%	19.1%	2.6%	3.09	3.18	+3.1
FULL	27	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	15	64	157	46	15	—	—	246.1%	71.4%	174.7%	23.5%	29.93	4.29	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	82	346	62	20	13	100%	5.9	18.0%	5.9%	12.1%	3.6%	4.67	4.70	+0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	78	330	66	18	12	100%	6.0	20.1%	5.5%	14.6%	3.7%	4.57	4.53	+0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	74	310	62	19	12	100%	6.1	19.9%	6.0%	13.9%	3.9%	4.64	4.70	+0.2
2030	31	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	68	289	57	19	12	100%	6.2	19.6%	6.4%	13.2%	4.1%	4.78	4.89	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	78	329	59	19	13	100%	6.0	18.0%	5.9%	12.1%	3.9%	4.80	4.83	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	74	312	63	17	12	100%	6.2	20.1%	5.5%	14.6%	4.0%	4.71	4.67	+0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	70	296	59	18	12	100%	5.8	19.9%	6.0%	13.9%	4.2%	4.78	4.84	+0.2
2030	31	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	65	274	54	18	12	100%	5.9	19.6%	6.4%	13.2%	4.4%	4.93	5.04	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	50	302	1277	245	78	55	96%	5.8	19.2%	6.1%	13.1%	4.3%	4.87	4.60	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	846	162	52	36	96%	5.8	19.2%	6.1%	13.1%	4.3%	4.87	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		63	59	304	1204	259	81	29	94%	4.8	21.5%	6.7%	14.8%	2.4%	3.02	3.46	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	39	200	792	170	53	19	94%	4.8	21.5%	6.7%	14.8%	2.4%	3.02	3.46	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brendan Beck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.22	18.0%	4.7%	3.0%	—	4.64	19.3%	13.5%	234	+0.42	—	—	—
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	84
Barry Enright R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP	3.42	15.9%	4.4%	2.0%	.306	3.95	13.3%	9.2%	226	+0.53	3.26	315	81
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	80
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	80
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	80
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	80
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	79
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	79
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	79
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	78
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	15.4%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.57	21.4%	13.2%	105	-1.09	2.42	444	77
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	77
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	77
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	77
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	76
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	76
Dustin Beggs R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	15.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.329	5.09	11.3%	3.6%	48	+0.70	3.40	407	75
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	75
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	75
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	75	19.1%	5.7%	1.42	4.57
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59