Brendan Beck

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 218 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.4 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	10	10	34	1.59	2.13	31.0%	5.4%	—	K 22.5% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.19
2025	26	MIX2 levels	26	24	131	3.36	3.44	23.6%	6.9%	—	K 19.8% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.82
2026	27	MIX2 levels	29	27	148	3.53	3.26	27.4%	8.0%	3.9	K 23.9% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.54
2027PROJ	28	MLBNYY	10	10	62	4.13	4.02	21.4%	5.3%	1.0
2028PROJ77% MLB	29	MLBNYY	11	11	64	4.30	4.32	20.8%	5.8%	0.9
2029PROJ83% MLB	30	MLBNYY	10	10	61	4.45	4.54	20.2%	6.2%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.029First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%51

FB Velo22

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR-0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsYohan Pino (age 30) · Todd Redmond (age 28) · Ryan Watson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 93

ERA4.13

FIP4.02

K%21.4%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%16.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2292.5

Whiff%

p9035.5%

p5122.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.401

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.029 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$19M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	34	129	40	7	2	100%	3.4	22.5%	6.7%	15.8%	2.1%	1.59	3.19	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	34	129	40	7	2	100%	3.4	31.0%	5.4%	25.6%	1.6%	1.59	2.13	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	131	522	123	36	14	92%	5.1	19.8%	6.7%	13.1%	2.8%	3.36	3.82	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	131	522	123	36	14	92%	5.1	19.8%	6.7%	13.1%	2.8%	3.36	3.82	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	131	522	123	36	14	92%	5.1	23.6%	6.9%	16.7%	2.7%	3.36	3.44	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	148	598	164	48	16	93%	5.1	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	2.8%	3.53	3.54	+3.3
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	148	598	164	48	16	93%	5.1	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	2.8%	3.53	3.54	+3.3
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	27	148	598	164	48	16	93%	5.1	27.4%	8.0%	19.4%	2.7%	3.53	3.26	+3.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	2	13	58	13	8	6	50%	3.2	22.4%	13.8%	8.6%	10.3%	9.95	9.10	-0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	NYY	10	10	62	262	56	14	8	100%	6.2	21.4%	5.3%	16.1%	3.0%	4.13	4.02	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	82	348	73	20	11	100%	5.9	20.8%	5.8%	15.1%	3.2%	4.18	4.20	+1.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	74	312	63	19	11	100%	6.2	20.2%	6.2%	14.0%	3.4%	4.32	4.41	+0.9
2030	31	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	72	302	65	18	11	100%	6.0	21.6%	5.8%	15.8%	3.6%	4.34	4.36	+0.9
2031	32	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	62	264	55	17	10	100%	6.2	20.8%	6.3%	14.5%	3.8%	4.51	4.62	+0.6
2032	33	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	53	223	45	15	9	100%	5.9	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	4.1%	4.74	4.89	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	64	270	56	16	9	100%	5.8	20.8%	5.8%	15.1%	3.4%	4.30	4.32	+0.9
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	61	258	52	16	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	6.2%	14.0%	3.6%	4.45	4.54	+0.7
2030	31	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	62	262	56	15	10	100%	6.2	21.6%	5.8%	15.8%	3.8%	4.47	4.49	+0.8
2031	32	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	56	236	49	15	10	100%	6.2	20.8%	6.3%	14.5%	4.1%	4.65	4.76	+0.5
2032	33	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	48	203	40	14	9	100%	6.0	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	4.4%	4.89	5.04	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	50	303	1285	267	83	53	96%	5.8	20.8%	6.5%	14.3%	4.1%	4.76	4.42	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	847	176	55	35	96%	5.8	20.8%	6.5%	14.3%	4.1%	4.76	4.42	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		65	61	313	1249	275	87	34	94%	4.8	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	2.7%	3.25	3.62	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	39	200	797	176	56	22	94%	4.8	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	2.7%	3.25	3.62	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 135 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.03 (+0.34)K% 28.0% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.96%	—	×0.860	24.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×0.900	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.04%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 77 IPFIP 4.26 → 4.50 (+0.23)K% 22.8% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.76%	—	×0.860	19.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×0.900	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.070	×1.100	3.96%

Result: FIP 4.26 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 54 IPFIP 2.26 → 2.81 (+0.56)K% 24.8% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.76%	—	×0.810	20.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.71%	—	×1.100	6.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.95%	÷1.030	×1.200	1.11%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 2.26 → 2.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 31 IPFIP 2.29 → 3.19 (+0.90)K% 29.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.770	22.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.83%	—	×1.150	6.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷1.006	×1.250	2.07%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.29 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brendan Beck (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.32	20.9%	15.0%	228	+0.30	—	—	—
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	75
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	73
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	72
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	72
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	69
Andrew Triggs R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	17.7%	6.7%	3.5%	.288	4.68	23.6%	13.7%	41	+0.30	1.66	242	69
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	68
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	67
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	67
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	66
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	66
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	66
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	65
Trevor Foss R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	26	SP	3.77	17.3%	3.5%	3.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	120	65
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	65
Danny Gutierrez R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	28	SP	3.34	15.0%	5.8%	1.4%	.358	4.26	12.4%	4.0%	186	+0.92	3.34	239	64
J.D. Martin R 2010 · 4.79 FIP	27	SP	4.79	14.6%	4.7%	4.2%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	414	63
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	63
Andy Ferguson R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SP	3.10	18.6%	8.0%	1.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	137	63
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	74	20.9%	6.2%	1.42	4.50
Rich Monteleone ('87-'96, 2 WAR*)	1.8	71	18.7%*	7.5%*	1.39*	4.03*
Mark Huismann ('83-'91, 1 WAR*)	1.5	74	23.8%*	6.5%*	1.30*	4.49*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80