Brendan Beck — OGILVIE

Brendan Beck P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

+0.5 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 218 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2027

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.1%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%13.1%

IP117

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2027

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	24	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	10	10	34	129	40	7	2	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	1.59	3.19	+0.7
2025	26	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	26	24	131	522	123	36	14	20.0%	7.4%	2.9%	3.36	3.91	+2.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	4	4	20	86	24	3	6	24.6%	3.7%	7.7%	4.87	5.70	-0.2
ROS	27	MLB	NYY	47	—	47	198	42	16	6	21.1%	8.0%	3.1%	4.39	4.39	+0.3
2026 Total	27	MLB	NYY	—	—	67	284	66	19	12	23.2%	6.7%	4.2%	4.54	4.79	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	NYY	21	21	117	495	105	40	15	21.2%	8.1%	3.1%	4.39	4.41	+1.2
2028	29	MLB	NYY	21	21	115	484	102	39	15	21.1%	8.1%	3.1%	4.41	4.44	+1.1
2029	30	MLB	NYY	20	20	111	470	98	38	15	21.0%	8.2%	3.2%	4.45	4.49	+1.0
2030	31	MLB	NYY	20	20	107	453	94	38	15	20.8%	8.3%	3.2%	4.51	4.56	+0.9
2031	32	MLB	NYY	19	19	103	435	89	37	14	20.5%	8.4%	3.3%	4.59	4.65	+0.8
2032	33	MLB	NYY	18	18	98	415	84	36	14	20.2%	8.6%	3.4%	4.68	4.74	+0.6
2033	34	MLB	NYY	17	17	94	395	78	35	14	19.8%	8.8%	3.5%	4.78	4.85	+0.4
2034	35	MLB	NYY	16	16	88	372	72	34	13	19.4%	9.0%	3.6%	4.90	4.98	+0.2
2035	36	MLB	NYY	15	15	82	348	66	32	13	19.0%	9.3%	3.7%	5.03	5.11	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			40	38	186	737	155	50	24	21.0%	6.8%	3.3%	3.20	3.99	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—			43	41	200	794	167	54	26	21.0%	6.8%	3.3%	3.20	3.99	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brendan Beck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	21.1%	8.0%	3.1%	—	4.45	21.1%	13.0%	343	+0.06	—	—	—
Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	3.0%	.339	3.39	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.73	3.11	166	87
Jack Dallas R 2025 · 3.58 FIP	26	SU	3.58	18.9%	6.8%	2.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	169	86
Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	16.9%	7.7%	2.0%	.288	3.35	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.40	3.08	201	85
Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	27	SW	3.75	17.6%	6.3%	2.4%	.246	3.68	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.07	3.25	160	84
Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	27	SW	3.91	20.4%	6.8%	3.0%	.276	3.53	23.3%	15.0%	198	-0.38	2.86	596	83
Bryan Evans R 2027 · 4.19 FIP	28	SW	4.19	17.8%	6.2%	3.3%	.250	4.61	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.42	3.86	231	83
Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP	28	SW	3.91	20.2%	7.4%	2.9%	.348	3.55	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.36	2.38	160	83
Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	27	SW	3.50	20.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.241	3.22	20.8%	14.2%	43	-0.28	2.49	131	83
Cole Johnson R 2026 · 3.64 FIP	27	SU	3.64	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	101	82
Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	27	SW	3.80	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.70	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.10	3.17	269	82
Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	21.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.243	3.46	24.8%	17.1%	57	-1.00	3.46	198	82
Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.43 FIP	28	SW	3.43	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.46	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.03	3.18	157	82
Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.33 FIP	29	SU	4.33	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.99	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.34	3.47	149	82
Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	27	SW	3.65	20.1%	6.6%	2.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	157	82
Chris Martin R 2028 · 3.18 FIP	29	SU	3.18	18.1%	7.0%	1.3%	.319	2.97	20.9%	19.2%	42	-0.21	1.72	402	82
Miguel Mejia R 2027 · 3.35 FIP	28	SW	3.35	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.13	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.78	3.35	108	81
Conor Mullee R 2026 · 3.28 FIP	27	SW	3.28	17.7%	7.2%	1.4%	.290	2.64	24.2%	16.3%	55	-0.64	2.17	110	81
Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	27	SW	4.04	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.34	4.04	101	81
Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	27	SW	3.18	18.6%	6.7%	1.5%	.294	4.05	19.0%	10.6%	106	+0.87	3.18	253	81
Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP	28	SW	3.34	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.07	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.73	3.25	150	81

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$9M	+$9M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.8	$4M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.4	$2M	-$0.5M
Totals		$9M		$31M	+$22M