Ryan Watson

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 204 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	13	10	67	4.70	2.89	25.5%	4.1%	—	K 18.6% · BB 4.9% · FIP 4.15
2025	26	AATOR	19	17	98	4.79	4.48	16.1%	7.0%	—	K 13.1% · BB 7.7% · FIP 5.48
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBTOR	1	1	1	5.27	5.27	12.6%	8.1%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBTOR	3	3	17	5.25	5.30	13.4%	8.5%	0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBTOR	4	4	23	5.31	5.40	13.8%	8.8%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control55Command40

CompsTravis Smith (age 29) · Robert Ellis (age 30) · Andres Ivan Meza (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.27

FIP5.27

K%12.6%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%4.5%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	10	67	271	69	11	7	77%	5.2	18.6%	4.9%	13.7%	3.7%	4.70	4.15	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	10	67	271	69	11	7	77%	5.2	18.6%	4.9%	13.7%	3.7%	4.70	4.15	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	10	67	271	69	11	7	77%	5.2	25.5%	4.1%	21.4%	2.6%	4.70	2.89	—
2025	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	19	17	98	415	67	29	14	89%	5.1	13.1%	7.7%	5.4%	4.6%	4.79	5.48	—
2025	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	19	17	98	415	67	29	14	89%	5.1	13.1%	7.7%	5.4%	4.6%	4.79	5.48	—
2025	26	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	19	17	98	415	67	29	14	89%	5.1	16.1%	7.0%	9.2%	3.4%	4.79	4.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TOR	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	12.6%	8.1%	4.5%	3.3%	5.27	5.27	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	54	227	30	19	8	100%	6.0	13.4%	8.5%	5.0%	3.4%	5.25	5.30	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	TOR	7	7	45	191	26	17	7	100%	6.5	13.8%	8.8%	5.0%	3.6%	5.31	5.40	0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	3	3	17	72	10	6	2	100%	5.7	13.4%	8.5%	5.0%	3.4%	5.25	5.30	+0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	TOR	4	4	23	97	13	9	3	100%	5.8	13.8%	8.8%	5.0%	3.6%	5.31	5.40	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	40	169	23	15	6	100%	5.7	13.7%	8.7%	5.0%	3.5%	5.28	4.98	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	115	75	30	100%	6.1	13.7%	8.7%	5.0%	3.5%	5.28	4.98	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		32	27	165	686	105	45	29	84%	5.1	15.3%	6.6%	8.7%	4.2%	4.76	4.96	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	33	200	833	127	55	35	84%	5.1	15.3%	6.6%	8.7%	4.2%	4.76	4.96	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 98 IPFIP 4.47 → 5.48 (+1.01)K% 16.1% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.14%	—	×0.810	13.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.99%	—	×1.100	7.69%
HR / BF /BF	3.37%	÷0.885	×1.200	4.57%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 4.47 → 5.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 29 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.02 (+0.67)K% 23.5% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.53%	—	×0.770	18.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.52%	—	×1.150	2.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.062	×1.250	1.98%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 20 IPFIP 4.44 → 7.04 (+2.60)K% 29.4% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.680	20.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.71%	—	×1.250	5.88%
HR / BF /BF	5.88%	÷0.925	×1.400	8.90%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 4.44 → 7.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 18 IPFIP 1.84 → 2.50 (+0.66)K% 23.9% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.88%	—	×0.740	17.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.97%	—	×1.180	7.04%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.003	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 1.84 → 2.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	12.6%	8.1%	3.3%	—	5.35	13.6%	5.0%	99	+0.08	—	—	—
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	88
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	86
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	85
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	82
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	82
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	82
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	81
Marco Quevedo R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	9.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.262	4.67	11.9%	6.3%	135	+0.54	4.13	300	80
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	79
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	79
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	79
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	78
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	77
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	76
Hector Galvan R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	28	SP	4.99	11.2%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	4.33	13.2%	3.1%	162	-0.66	3.59	406	76
Joe Roa R 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SP-	4.60	11.7%	3.7%	3.7%	.278	4.47	15.5%	9.3%	121	-0.13	4.28	258	76
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	75
Nick Petree R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	11.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	122	74
Alejandro Martinez R 2017 · 4.24 FIP	28	SP-	4.24	9.2%	5.3%	2.3%	.291	5.97	10.5%	1.3%	32	+1.73	4.24	166	74
Oscar Hurtado R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	28	SP	4.27	12.0%	7.7%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	140	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	13.2%	8.4%	1.33	5.27
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*