Ryan Watson
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 204 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 124
ERA5.51
FIP5.51
K%12.4%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%4.3%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 10 | 67 | 271 | 69 | 11 | 7 | 77% | 5.2 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 4.70 | 4.26 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 10 | 67 | 271 | 69 | 11 | 7 | 77% | 5.2 | 25.5% | 4.1% | 21.4% | 2.6% | 4.70 | 2.89 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 19 | 17 | 98 | 415 | 67 | 29 | 14 | 89% | 5.1 | 13.1% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.79 | 5.85 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 19 | 17 | 98 | 415 | 67 | 29 | 14 | 89% | 5.1 | 16.1% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.48 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 37 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 12.4% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.51 | 5.51 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 38 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 13.4% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.44 | 5.47 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 38 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.9% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.45 | 5.52 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 13.4% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.44 | 5.47 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 21 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 13.9% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.45 | 5.52 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 62 | 260 | 36 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 13.7% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.45 | 5.12 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 117 | 71 | 32 | 100% | 6.0 | 13.7% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.45 | 5.12 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 32 | 27 | 165 | 686 | 105 | 45 | 32 | 84% | 5.1 | 15.3% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 4.76 | 5.22 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 33 | 200 | 833 | 127 | 55 | 39 | 84% | 5.1 | 15.3% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 4.76 | 5.22 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Watson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.51 | 12.4% | 8.1% | 3.7% | — | 5.49 | 13.6% | 5.1% | 133 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 84 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.37 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.25 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.12 | 4.25 | 275 | 83 |
| Caleb Clay R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.63 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 111 | 82 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 81 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 80 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.34 | 9.0% | 6.4% | 2.1% | .262 | 4.97 | 11.9% | 6.3% | 135 | +0.63 | 4.34 | 300 | 80 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 79 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2028 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 79 |
| David Fletcher R 2029 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 77 |
| Nick Belzer R 2024 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.55 | 12.8% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 112 | 76 |
| Iván Nova R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.43 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .283 | 4.19 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 510 | -0.24 | 3.90 | 810 | 76 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2024 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.37 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 195 | 76 |
| Jason Forjet R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 76 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 75 |
| Frank Batista R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 75 |
| Casey Kelly R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.60 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 5.1% | .318 | 4.42 | 16.4% | 10.2% | 160 | -1.18 | 3.98 | 607 | 75 |
| Brett Gillis R 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.10 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 4.0% | .231 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 119 | 75 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.97 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .315 | 3.67 | 16.6% | 6.9% | 95 | -1.30 | 2.19 | 426 | 75 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.53 | 14.9% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 289 | 75 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 13.2% | 8.4% | 1.46 | 5.47 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |