Ryan Watson — OGILVIE

Ryan Watson P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 204 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 118

ERA5.34

FIP5.34

K%12.4%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	10	67	271	69	11	7	77%	5.2	18.6%	4.9%	13.7%	3.7%	4.70	4.15	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	10	67	271	69	11	7	77%	5.2	18.6%	4.9%	13.7%	3.7%	4.70	4.15	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	10	67	271	69	11	7	77%	5.2	25.5%	4.1%	21.4%	2.6%	4.70	2.89	—
2025	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	19	17	98	415	67	29	14	89%	5.1	13.1%	7.7%	5.4%	4.6%	4.79	5.48	—
2025	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	19	17	98	415	67	29	14	89%	5.1	13.1%	7.7%	5.4%	4.6%	4.79	5.48	—
2025	26	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	19	17	98	415	67	29	14	89%	5.1	16.1%	7.0%	9.2%	3.4%	4.79	4.48	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	TOR	1	1	6	25	3	2	1	100%	6.0	12.4%	7.8%	4.6%	3.5%	5.34	5.34	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	68	287	38	23	10	100%	6.2	13.4%	8.1%	5.3%	3.5%	5.28	5.32	-0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	65	274	38	23	10	100%	5.9	13.9%	8.4%	5.5%	3.7%	5.31	5.37	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	TOR	4	4	26	110	15	9	4	100%	6.5	13.4%	8.1%	5.3%	3.5%	5.28	5.32	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	36	152	21	13	6	100%	6.0	13.9%	8.4%	5.5%	3.7%	5.31	5.37	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	62	260	36	21	9	100%	6.2	13.7%	8.2%	5.4%	3.6%	5.30	4.97	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	117	68	29	100%	6.0	13.7%	8.2%	5.4%	3.6%	5.30	4.97	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		32	27	165	686	105	45	29	84%	5.1	15.3%	6.6%	8.7%	4.2%	4.76	4.96	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	33	200	833	127	55	35	84%	5.1	15.3%	6.6%	8.7%	4.2%	4.76	4.96	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	12.4%	7.8%	3.5%	—	5.34	13.6%	5.4%	133	+0.00	—	—	—
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	85
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	85
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	83
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	81
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	80
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	80
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	79
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	79
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	77
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	77
Iván Nova R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP	4.44	15.3%	8.0%	2.9%	.283	4.33	17.3%	13.1%	510	-0.11	4.03	810	77
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	77
Nick Belzer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP	4.51	12.8%	8.6%	2.6%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	112	77
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	76
Nick Petree R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	11.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	122	76
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	76
Dustin Beggs R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	15.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.329	5.09	11.3%	3.6%	48	+0.70	3.40	407	76
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	76
Casey Kelly R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	27	SP	5.25	16.2%	8.5%	4.5%	.318	4.41	16.4%	10.2%	160	-0.84	4.08	607	76
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	13.2%	8.0%	1.38	5.31
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43