Ryan Watson
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
+0.1
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 204 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.90
FIP4.90
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.7%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%9.7%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL5555
CMD4040
K†3045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 13 | 10 | 67 | 271 | 69 | 11 | 7 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 4.17 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 19 | 17 | 98 | 415 | 67 | 29 | 14 | 13.1% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 4.79 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 87 | 369 | 59 | 32 | 13 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 5.13 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 61 | 32 | 13 | 16.5% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 5.05 | 5.07 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 61 | 31 | 13 | 16.8% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.05 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 84 | 353 | 59 | 30 | 12 | 16.8% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 5.03 | 5.07 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 81 | 340 | 57 | 30 | 12 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 5.08 | 5.12 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 77 | 327 | 60 | 26 | 12 | 18.4% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 5.00 | 4.94 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 57 | 26 | 12 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 5.04 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 53 | 25 | 11 | 17.8% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 5.10 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 49 | 24 | 11 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 5.20 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 44 | 23 | 11 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 5.32 | 5.40 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 32 | 27 | 165 | 686 | 105 | 45 | 29 | 15.3% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.76 | 4.94 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 33 | 200 | 833 | 128 | 55 | 35 | 15.3% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.76 | 4.94 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Watson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.13 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 3.5% | — | 5.06 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 258 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 92 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 90 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 89 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 88 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 88 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 87 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 86 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 85 |
| Sam Highfill R 2023 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 85 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 85 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 85 |
| Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 84 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 84 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 84 |
| Scott McGregor R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 84 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.25 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -1.02 | 3.92 | 272 | 84 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.12 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 328 | 83 |
| Dustin Beggs R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.37 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .329 | 5.09 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 48 | +0.72 | 3.42 | 407 | 83 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 83 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.