Yariel Rodríguez

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	29	28	107	3.87	3.72	25.9%	11.6%	2.2	K 24.9% · BB 11.4% · FIP 3.76
2025	28	MLBTOR	66	1	73	3.08	3.99	22.1%	10.4%	0.5
2026	29	MIX2 levels	23	1	25	4.68	3.86	28.6%	17.0%	0.2	K 33.4% · BB 16.1% · FIP 2.32
2027PROJ	30	MLBTOR	70	0	74	4.22	4.44	24.4%	12.1%	0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBTOR	40	0	42	4.49	4.67	23.7%	12.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBTOR	26	0	27	4.75	4.92	22.9%	12.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo67

K%50

xwOBA vs45

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Dustin Molleken (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.22

FIP4.44

K%24.4%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%12.3%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p6427.5%

p5022.1%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	107	455	118	53	11	97%	3.7	24.9%	11.4%	13.6%	2.4%	3.87	3.76	+2.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	107	455	118	53	11	97%	3.7	24.9%	11.4%	13.6%	2.4%	3.87	3.76	+2.1
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	107	455	118	53	11	97%	3.7	25.9%	11.6%	14.3%	2.4%	3.87	3.72	+2.2
2025	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	66	1	73	298	66	31	8	2%	1.1	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	2.7%	3.08	4.02	+0.5
2025	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	66	1	73	298	66	31	8	2%	1.1	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	2.7%	3.08	4.02	+0.5
2025	28	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	66	1	73	298	66	31	8	2%	1.1	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	2.7%	3.08	3.99	+0.5
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	1	25	112	32	19	2	4%	1.1	33.4%	16.1%	17.3%	0.0%	4.68	2.32	+0.7
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	1	25	112	32	19	2	4%	1.1	33.4%	16.1%	17.3%	0.0%	4.68	2.32	+0.7
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	1	25	112	32	19	2	4%	1.1	28.6%	17.0%	11.6%	1.8%	4.68	3.86	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			97	22	169	711	157	78	21	23%	1.7	22.1%	11.0%	11.1%	3.0%	4.05	4.24	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TOR	70	0	74	312	76	38	8	0%	1.1	24.4%	12.1%	12.3%	2.7%	4.22	4.44	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TOR	43	0	45	189	45	23	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	12.4%	11.2%	2.9%	4.49	4.67	-0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	TOR	27	0	28	119	27	15	4	0%	1.0	22.9%	12.8%	10.0%	3.2%	4.75	4.92	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	TOR	40	0	42	177	42	22	5	0%	1.1	23.7%	12.4%	11.2%	2.9%	4.49	4.67	-0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	TOR	26	0	27	114	26	15	4	0%	1.0	22.9%	12.8%	10.0%	3.2%	4.75	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		163	22	238	1003	225	115	30	13%	1.5	22.5%	11.4%	11.0%	3.0%	4.21	4.29	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		137	18	200	842	189	97	25	14%	1.5	22.5%	11.4%	11.0%	3.0%	4.21	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		118	30	205	865	217	101	19	25%	1.7	25.1%	11.6%	13.4%	2.2%	3.69	3.66	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	29	200	844	211	98	19	25%	1.7	25.1%	11.6%	13.4%	2.2%	3.69	3.66	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 16 IPFIP 2.09 → 2.32 (+0.23)K% 38.8% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.81%	—	×0.860	33.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.91%	—	×0.900	16.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 2.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 20 IPFIP 1.79 → 2.05 (+0.26)K% 37.9% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.93%	—	×0.860	32.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.94%	—	×0.900	13.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.990	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.79 → 2.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yariel Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	24.4%	12.1%	2.7%	—	4.77	23.4%	10.8%	73	+0.33	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	68
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	68
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	67
AJ Ramos R 2017 · 3.86 FIP	30	SU	3.86	27.9%	12.8%	2.7%	.288	5.02	25.0%	8.0%	20	+1.16	2.55	410	67
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.27	300	67
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	66
Troy Percival R 2000 · 4.46 FIP	30	SU	4.46	22.2%	11.8%	3.2%	.252	3.15	28.2%	18.8%	163	-1.31	2.15	709	65
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	65
Derek Law R 2021 · 3.63 FIP	30	SU	3.63	21.0%	11.2%	1.6%	.319	3.43	20.2%	12.5%	212	-0.20	2.49	520	65
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	64
Manny Acosta R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	22.5%	7.4%	2.9%	.321	4.49	21.3%	10.2%	47	+0.74	3.08	350	64
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	1.67	351	64
Britt Reames R 2002 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.7%	10.4%	2.6%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	204	64
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	64
Guillermo Moscoso R 2013 · 5.15 FIP	29	SU	5.15	24.2%	14.1%	4.2%	.203	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	486	64
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	64
Steve Geltz R 2017 · 3.57 FIP	29	SU	3.57	22.6%	10.2%	2.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	157	63
Jason Frasor R 2008 · 4.16 FIP	30	SU	4.16	20.2%	13.5%	1.9%	.239	3.13	23.2%	15.9%	181	-1.03	2.71	647	63
Scott Dohmann R 2008 · 4.38 FIP	30	SU	4.38	18.2%	9.1%	3.0%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	173	63
Trevor Hildenberger R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	30	SU	3.60	21.8%	14.4%	0.9%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	1.41	309	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	63	22.9%	11.8%	1.13	4.21
Bill Kelso ('64-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.1%*	11.6%*	1.09*	4.19*
Brandon Workman ('21)	1.6	55	24.3%	11.1%	1.04	4.02
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Jose Veras ('14)	2.1	60	24.0%	12.1%	0.96	3.91
Blake Wood ('18)	1.4	72	21.7%	11.2%	0.90	4.47