Yariel Rodríguez
P
Buffalo Bisons
+0.6
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'0" / 165 lbs
AAA
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA4.12
FIP4.30
xFIP4.60
SIERA4.27
K%23.2%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%12.6%
IP76
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD4545
K†5555
FB Velo
p6795.7
Whiff%
p6427.5%
K%
p5022.1%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
SL+12.0 (41%)
SI (6%)
FB-0.5 (47%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 29 | 28 | 107 | 455 | 118 | 53 | 11 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.3% | 3.87 | 3.76 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 66 | 1 | 73 | 298 | 66 | 31 | 8 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 3.08 | 3.86 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 5 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.52 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 76 | 36 | 9 | 23.6% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.42 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 84 | 354 | 91 | 41 | 9 | 25.6% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 4.01 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 74 | 311 | 72 | 35 | 9 | 23.1% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.51 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 67 | 34 | 9 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 63 | 34 | 9 | 21.9% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.73 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 58 | 33 | 8 | 21.2% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 54 | 31 | 8 | 20.5% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 49 | 30 | 8 | 19.8% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 5.05 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 44 | 29 | 8 | 19.0% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 100 | 30 | 188 | 786 | 195 | 90 | 18 | 24.8% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 3.55 | 3.69 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 107 | 32 | 200 | 838 | 208 | 96 | 19 | 24.8% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 3.55 | 3.69 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yariel Rodríguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 23.6% | 11.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.61 | 22.5% | 11.0% | 213 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.16 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.29 | 332 | 77 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 76 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.01 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.91 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.90 | 4.01 | 130 | 76 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 75 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.22 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .259 | 3.21 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.01 | 2.80 | 410 | 75 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 74 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.30 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 3.76 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 181 | +0.46 | 1.69 | 468 | 74 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 74 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 73 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 73 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 73 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 73 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.4% | .310 | 4.90 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.65 | 3.99 | 748 | 73 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 73 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.77 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.74 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | -0.03 | 2.26 | 602 | 73 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 73 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.40 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .356 | 3.44 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 141 | +0.04 | 2.83 | 432 | 72 |
| Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 124 | 71 |
| Jose Cuas R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.07 | 24.3% | 12.0% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 69 | +0.30 | 2.70 | 282 | 71 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.