Derek Law
P
ACL D-backs
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
ROK
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION2 act + 71 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 88
ERA3.92
FIP4.00
K%21.7%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP71
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5895.1
Whiff%
p7128.6%
K%
p4120.8%
xwOBA vs
p590.303
SL+12.3 (29%)
CH+2.0 (5%)
CT+0.9 (39%)
SI (10%)
CU (4%)
FB-1.1 (23%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 28 | 0 | 26 | 116 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.3% | 7.6% | 14.8% | 1.4% | 4.56 | 2.96 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 28 | 0 | 26 | 116 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.6% | 6.9% | 20.7% | 0.9% | 4.56 | 2.05 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 58 | 225 | 52 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.4% | 4.2% | 19.2% | 1.5% | 2.02 | 2.50 | +1.4 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 58 | 225 | 52 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.1% | 4.4% | 18.7% | 1.3% | 2.02 | 2.50 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 70 | 305 | 61 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 2.2% | 3.86 | 3.71 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 70 | 305 | 61 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 2.0% | 3.86 | 3.46 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 55 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.1% | 7.3% | 14.8% | 1.9% | 5.00 | 3.22 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 55 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.3% | 7.1% | 17.3% | 1.8% | 5.00 | 2.91 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 4 | 71 | 327 | 84 | 40 | 9 | 6% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 4 | 71 | 327 | 84 | 40 | 9 | 6% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.07 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 3 | 43 | 184 | 42 | 20 | 3 | 11% | 1.6 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 1.6% | 3.12 | 3.60 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 3 | 43 | 184 | 42 | 20 | 3 | 11% | 1.6 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 1.6% | 3.12 | 3.45 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 64 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 13.8% | 1.5% | 3.24 | 3.06 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 64 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.7% | 6.7% | 16.0% | 1.8% | 3.24 | 3.01 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 57 | 4 | 58 | 253 | 49 | 26 | 6 | 7% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 3.41 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 57 | 4 | 58 | 253 | 49 | 26 | 6 | 7% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 2.4% | 3.41 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 75 | 0 | 90 | 365 | 76 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 6.6% | 14.2% | 1.9% | 2.60 | 3.23 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 75 | 0 | 90 | 365 | 76 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 6.6% | 14.2% | 1.9% | 2.60 | 3.22 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 75% | 1.2 | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 11.57 | 8.03 | — |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 75% | 1.2 | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 11.57 | 9.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | ARI | 67 | 0 | 71 | 299 | 65 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 2.5% | 3.92 | 4.00 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.7% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 2.5% | 3.92 | 4.00 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 73 | 307 | 69 | 22 | 9 | — | — | 22.4% | 7.3% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.89 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 60 | 0 | 63 | 264 | 55 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | ARI | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 45 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | ARI | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 36 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 4.93 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.6% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.36 | — |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.5% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.76 | — |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 4.93 | 5.20 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 322 | 7 | 346 | 1497 | 316 | 132 | 36 | 2% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 2.4% | 3.69 | 3.75 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 186 | 4 | 200 | 865 | 183 | 76 | 21 | 2% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 2.4% | 3.69 | 3.75 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 485 | 14 | 544 | 2315 | 490 | 194 | 49 | 3% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 2.1% | 3.56 | 3.53 | +11.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 5 | 200 | 852 | 180 | 71 | 18 | 3% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 2.1% | 3.56 | 3.53 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Derek Law (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.00 | 21.7% | 7.5% | 2.5% | — | 4.73 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 164 | +0.73 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 73 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 72 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 72 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 71 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 70 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 70 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 70 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 69 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.96 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 284 | 69 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.03 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.28 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.75 | 2.03 | 804 | 69 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 68 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 66 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 66 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 66 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.91 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | .249 | 3.54 | 10.9% | 6.6% | 22 | +0.63 | 2.79 | 128 | 65 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 65 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.17 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | .288 | 4.50 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 116 | +1.33 | 3.17 | 225 | 65 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 65 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.03 | 21.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | .279 | 4.00 | 21.8% | 17.7% | 153 | -0.03 | 1.87 | 407 | 64 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.71 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 46 | -0.36 | 3.08 | 349 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 59 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 1.19 | 4.34 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |