Derek Law — OGILVIE

Derek Law P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.92

FIP4.00

K%21.6%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%14.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p7128.6%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

SL+12.3 (29%)

CH+2.0 (5%)

CT+0.9 (39%)

SI (10%)

CU (4%)

FB-1.1 (23%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	0	26	116	32	8	1	0%	0.9	22.3%	7.6%	14.8%	1.2%	4.56	2.83	—
2015	24	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	0	26	116	32	8	1	0%	0.9	27.6%	6.9%	20.7%	0.9%	4.56	2.05	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	58	225	52	10	3	0%	0.9	23.4%	4.2%	19.2%	1.5%	2.02	2.49	+1.4
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	58	225	52	10	3	0%	0.9	23.1%	4.4%	18.7%	1.3%	2.02	2.50	+1.4
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	70	305	61	23	6	0%	1.1	19.0%	7.7%	11.3%	2.2%	3.86	3.67	+0.7
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	70	305	61	23	6	0%	1.1	20.0%	7.5%	12.5%	2.0%	3.86	3.46	+0.9
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	54	226	55	16	4	0%	1.4	22.1%	7.3%	14.8%	1.9%	5.00	3.22	+0.9
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	54	226	55	16	4	0%	1.4	24.3%	7.1%	17.3%	1.8%	5.00	2.91	+1.1
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	4	71	327	84	40	9	6%	1.1	23.5%	13.0%	10.5%	2.8%	4.42	4.30	+0.2
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	4	71	327	84	40	9	6%	1.1	25.7%	12.2%	13.5%	2.8%	4.42	4.07	+0.4
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	3	43	184	42	20	3	11%	1.6	21.0%	11.2%	9.8%	1.6%	3.12	3.63	+0.5
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	3	43	184	42	20	3	11%	1.6	22.8%	10.9%	12.0%	1.6%	3.12	3.45	+0.6
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	67	282	64	19	5	0%	1.2	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	1.6%	3.24	3.11	+1.2
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	67	282	64	19	5	0%	1.2	22.7%	6.7%	16.0%	1.8%	3.24	3.01	+1.2
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	57	4	58	253	49	26	6	7%	1.0	18.8%	10.8%	7.9%	2.3%	3.41	4.16	+0.3
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	57	4	58	253	49	26	6	7%	1.0	18.8%	10.8%	7.9%	2.3%	3.41	4.16	+0.3
2023	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	57	4	58	253	49	26	6	7%	1.0	19.4%	10.3%	9.1%	2.4%	3.41	4.10	+0.3
2024	33	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	75	0	90	365	76	24	7	0%	1.2	20.8%	6.6%	14.2%	1.9%	2.60	3.23	+1.4
2024	33	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	75	0	90	365	76	24	7	0%	1.2	20.8%	6.6%	14.2%	1.9%	2.60	3.23	+1.4
2024	33	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	75	0	90	365	76	24	7	0%	1.2	20.8%	6.6%	14.2%	1.9%	2.60	3.22	+1.4
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	5	24	2	2	2	75%	1.2	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	8.3%	11.57	8.03	—
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	5	24	2	2	2	75%	1.2	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	8.3%	11.57	8.03	—
2025	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	3	5	24	2	2	2	75%	1.2	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	8.3%	11.57	9.10	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			329	8	355	1531	321	134	36	2%	1.1	21.0%	8.8%	12.2%	2.4%	3.63	3.74	+3.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	14	1	17	64	14	2	1	7%	1.2	—	—	—	—	1.04	—	—
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	14	1	17	64	14	2	1	7%	1.2	—	—	—	—	1.04	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	ROK RAW	ARI	2	0	2	8	4	0	1	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	12.5%	4.50	5.74	—
2026	35	AAA RAW	ARI	5	0	6	22	5	0	0	0%	1.3	22.7%	0.0%	22.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.18	—
2026	35	MLB RAW	ARI	7	1	9	34	5	2	0	14%	1.3	14.7%	5.9%	8.8%	0.0%	1.00	2.60	—
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	ARI	7	1	9	34	5	2	0	14%	1.3	14.7%	5.9%	8.8%	0.0%	1.00	2.60	—
ROS	35	MLB MLE	ARI	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	7.5%	14.1%	2.5%	3.92	4.00	+0.0
ROS	35	MLB CTX	ARI	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	7.5%	14.1%	2.5%	3.92	4.00	+0.0
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	23	89	19	4	2	—	—	21.8%	4.3%	17.5%	1.8%	1.77	1.01	+1.1
FULL	35	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	15	63	19	4	2	—	—	30.8%	6.2%	24.7%	2.6%	2.76	2.70	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	ARI	60	0	63	264	53	21	7	0%	1.0	19.9%	8.0%	11.9%	2.7%	4.14	4.32	+0.2
2028	37	MLB MLE	ARI	52	0	55	231	43	20	7	0%	1.1	18.8%	8.6%	10.2%	3.2%	4.49	4.72	-0.1
2027	36	MLB CTX	ARI	60	0	63	266	53	21	7	0%	1.1	19.9%	8.0%	11.9%	2.7%	4.14	4.32	+0.2
2028	37	MLB CTX	ARI	52	0	55	232	44	20	7	0%	1.1	18.8%	8.6%	10.2%	3.2%	4.49	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		446	8	478	2051	422	177	51	2%	1.1	20.6%	8.6%	12.0%	2.5%	3.80	3.82	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	3	200	858	177	74	21	2%	1.1	20.6%	8.6%	12.0%	2.5%	3.80	3.82	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		497	15	559	2371	500	196	48	3%	1.1	21.1%	8.3%	12.8%	2.0%	3.48	3.49	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	5	200	848	179	70	17	3%	1.1	21.1%	8.3%	12.8%	2.0%	3.48	3.49	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Derek Law (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.00	21.6%	7.5%	2.5%	—	4.51	19.4%	11.1%	117	+0.51	—	—	—
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	77
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	73
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	73
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	73
Daniel Bard R 2020 · 2.82 FIP	35	SU	2.82	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.63	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.81	2.56	200	72
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	71
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	71
Jumbo Diaz R 2019 · 2.98 FIP	35	SU	2.98	25.0%	7.7%	1.8%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	284	71
Luis Ayala R 2015 · 3.03 FIP	37	SU	3.03	19.7%	5.0%	1.7%	.270	3.27	12.1%	5.9%	57	+0.24	3.03	119	71
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	70
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	70
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	69
Carlos Torres R 2018 · 2.89 FIP	35	SU	2.89	22.3%	7.3%	1.4%	.248	4.28	17.8%	8.8%	62	+1.39	2.89	326	69
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	68
Jesse Chavez R 2019 · 4.00 FIP	35	SW	4.00	21.4%	6.5%	3.4%	.303	3.25	25.5%	17.9%	140	-0.75	2.03	804	68
Craig Stammen R 2019 · 3.82 FIP	35	SU	3.82	21.5%	3.8%	3.7%	.279	3.79	21.8%	17.7%	153	-0.03	1.82	407	68
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	67
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	67
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	67
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.38 FIP	35	SU	4.38	18.3%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	20.2%	8.0%	1.08	4.16
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19