Derek Law
P
Harrisburg Senators
+0.9
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
AA
peak 0.9 · 2026
ERA3.61
FIP4.02
xFIP3.54
SIERA3.58
K%21.4%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%13.4%
IP71
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL5555
CMD5050
K†5555
FB Velo
p5895.1
Whiff%
p7128.6%
K%
p4120.8%
xwOBA vs
p590.303
SL+12.3 (29%)
CH+2.0 (5%)
CT+0.9 (39%)
SI (10%)
CU (4%)
FB-1.1 (23%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 28 | 0 | 26 | 116 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 22.3% | 7.6% | 1.2% | 4.56 | 2.85 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 64 | 0 | 58 | 225 | 52 | 10 | 3 | 23.4% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 2.02 | 2.51 | +1.6 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 66 | 0 | 70 | 305 | 61 | 23 | 6 | 19.0% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 3.80 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 40 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 55 | 16 | 4 | 22.1% | 7.3% | 1.9% | 5.00 | 3.22 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 66 | 4 | 71 | 327 | 84 | 40 | 9 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 4.24 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 27 | 3 | 43 | 184 | 42 | 20 | 3 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 1.7% | 3.12 | 3.66 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 56 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 64 | 19 | 5 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 1.7% | 3.24 | 3.16 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 57 | 4 | 58 | 253 | 49 | 26 | 6 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 2.2% | 3.41 | 4.09 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 75 | 0 | 90 | 365 | 76 | 24 | 7 | 20.8% | 6.6% | 1.7% | 2.60 | 3.09 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 34 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 4 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 11.57 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 68 | 24 | 7 | 22.7% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 3.58 | 3.91 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 61 | 23 | 7 | 21.9% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.88 | 4.07 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 21.1% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | WSH | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 48 | 21 | 7 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 39 | MLB | WSH | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 42 | 20 | 6 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 483 | 14 | 542 | 2307 | 486 | 194 | 47 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 3.56 | 3.51 | +11.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 5 | 200 | 852 | 179 | 72 | 17 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 3.56 | 3.51 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Derek Law (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.91 | 22.7% | 8.0% | 2.4% | — | 4.24 | 21.1% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 73 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 72 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.60 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.74 | 2.45 | 200 | 72 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.04 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.25 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.79 | 2.03 | 804 | 71 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 71 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 70 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 70 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.97 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 284 | 70 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 70 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.03 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.03 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.25 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.22 | 3.01 | 119 | 70 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 69 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 67 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 67 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 66 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.89 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.4% | .248 | 4.29 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.40 | 2.89 | 326 | 66 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.14 | 21.0% | 6.3% | 3.7% | .271 | 3.76 | 22.3% | 15.9% | 184 | -0.38 | 3.61 | 1,008 | 66 |
| Josh Lowey R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.45 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 426 | 65 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.21 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | .288 | 4.44 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 116 | +1.23 | 3.21 | 225 | 65 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 65 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.89 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | .249 | 3.43 | 10.9% | 6.6% | 22 | +0.54 | 2.80 | 128 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.