Derek Law

P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 36 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	33	MLBWSH	75	0	90	2.60	3.22	20.8%	6.6%	1.4
2025	34	MIX2 levels	4	3	5	11.57	9.10	8.3%	8.3%	—	K 8.3% · BB 8.3% · FIP 8.03
2026	35	MIX3 levels	14	1	17	1.04	2.58	21.9%	3.1%	0.4	K 21.9% · BB 3.1% · FIP 2.51
2027PROJ	36	MLBARI	73	0	77	3.97	4.10	23.2%	8.3%	0.4
2028PROJ	37	MLBARI	51	0	54	4.29	4.50	22.1%	9.0%	0.0
2029PROJ	38	MLBARI	36	0	38	4.68	4.94	21.0%	9.7%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

xwOBA vs59

FB Velo58

K%41

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Juan Sandoval (age 36) · Kazuhiro Sasaki (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.97

FIP4.10

K%23.2%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%14.9%

Proj IP77

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p7128.6%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	0	26	116	32	8	1	0%	0.9	22.3%	7.6%	14.8%	1.2%	4.56	2.83	—
2015	24	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	0	26	116	32	8	1	0%	0.9	27.6%	6.9%	20.7%	0.9%	4.56	2.05	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	58	225	52	10	3	0%	0.9	23.4%	4.2%	19.2%	1.5%	2.02	2.49	+1.4
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	58	225	52	10	3	0%	0.9	23.1%	4.4%	18.7%	1.3%	2.02	2.50	+1.4
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	70	305	61	23	6	0%	1.1	19.0%	7.7%	11.3%	2.2%	3.86	3.67	+0.7
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	70	305	61	23	6	0%	1.1	20.0%	7.5%	12.5%	2.0%	3.86	3.46	+0.9
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	54	226	55	16	4	0%	1.4	22.1%	7.3%	14.8%	1.9%	5.00	3.22	+0.9
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	54	226	55	16	4	0%	1.4	24.3%	7.1%	17.3%	1.8%	5.00	2.91	+1.1
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	4	71	327	84	40	9	6%	1.1	23.5%	13.0%	10.5%	2.8%	4.42	4.30	+0.2
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	4	71	327	84	40	9	6%	1.1	25.7%	12.2%	13.5%	2.8%	4.42	4.07	+0.4
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	3	43	184	42	20	3	11%	1.6	21.0%	11.2%	9.8%	1.6%	3.12	3.63	+0.5
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	3	43	184	42	20	3	11%	1.6	22.8%	10.9%	12.0%	1.6%	3.12	3.45	+0.6
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	67	282	64	19	5	0%	1.2	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	1.6%	3.24	3.11	+1.2
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	67	282	64	19	5	0%	1.2	22.7%	6.7%	16.0%	1.8%	3.24	3.01	+1.2
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	57	4	58	253	49	26	6	7%	1.0	18.8%	10.8%	7.9%	2.3%	3.41	4.16	+0.3
2023	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	57	4	58	253	49	26	6	7%	1.0	19.4%	10.3%	9.1%	2.4%	3.41	4.10	+0.3
2024	33	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	75	0	90	365	76	24	7	0%	1.2	20.8%	6.6%	14.2%	1.9%	2.60	3.23	+1.4
2024	33	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	75	0	90	365	76	24	7	0%	1.2	20.8%	6.6%	14.2%	1.9%	2.60	3.23	+1.4
2024	33	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	75	0	90	365	76	24	7	0%	1.2	20.8%	6.6%	14.2%	1.9%	2.60	3.22	+1.4
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	5	24	2	2	2	75%	1.2	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	8.3%	11.57	8.03	—
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	5	24	2	2	2	75%	1.2	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	8.3%	11.57	8.03	—
2025	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	3	5	24	2	2	2	75%	1.2	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	8.3%	11.57	9.10	—
2026	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	1	17	64	14	2	1	7%	1.2	21.9%	3.1%	18.8%	1.6%	1.04	2.51	+0.4
2026	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	1	17	64	14	2	1	7%	1.2	21.9%	3.1%	18.8%	1.6%	1.04	2.51	+0.4
2026	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	1	17	64	14	2	1	7%	1.2	21.9%	3.1%	18.8%	1.6%	1.04	2.58	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			329	8	355	1531	321	134	36	2%	1.1	21.0%	8.8%	12.2%	2.4%	3.63	3.74	+3.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	ARI	73	0	77	325	75	27	9	0%	1.1	23.2%	8.3%	14.9%	2.8%	3.97	4.10	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	ARI	51	0	54	226	50	20	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.0%	13.2%	3.2%	4.29	4.50	+0.0
2029	38	MLB MLE	ARI	37	0	38	162	34	16	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.7%	11.3%	3.6%	4.68	4.94	-0.2
2028	37	MLB CTX	ARI	51	0	54	228	50	20	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.0%	13.2%	3.2%	4.29	4.50	+0.0
2029	38	MLB CTX	ARI	36	0	38	160	34	16	6	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.7%	11.3%	3.6%	4.68	4.94	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		417	8	447	1919	405	170	49	2%	1.1	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	2.6%	3.80	3.85	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	4	200	859	181	76	22	2%	1.1	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	2.6%	3.80	3.85	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		497	15	559	2371	500	196	48	3%	1.1	21.1%	8.3%	12.8%	2.0%	3.48	3.49	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	5	200	848	179	70	17	3%	1.1	21.1%	8.3%	12.8%	2.0%	3.48	3.49	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 6 IPFIP 1.18 → 1.45 (+0.27)K% 22.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.860	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.18 → 1.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 47 IPFIP 2.32 → 2.53 (+0.21)K% 24.7% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.74%	—	×0.880	21.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.79%	—	×1.050	6.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.05%	÷1.282	×1.100	0.90%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 2.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 28 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.15 (+0.30)K% 23.9% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.93%	—	×0.880	21.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.26%	—	×1.050	10.77%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷1.121	×1.100	0.84%

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAABuffalo Bisons · 11 IPFIP 1.89 → 2.48 (+0.59)K% 40.5% → 35.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.48%	—	×0.880	35.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.050	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.62%

Result: FIP 1.89 → 2.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASacramento River Cats · 41 IPFIP 2.15 → 2.52 (+0.37)K% 26.9% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.88%	—	×0.880	23.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.050	5.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷0.998	×1.100	1.38%

Result: FIP 2.15 → 2.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAASacramento River Cats · 33 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.25 (+0.34)K% 19.0% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.98%	—	×0.880	16.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.03%	—	×1.050	8.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.73%	÷0.889	×1.100	0.90%

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 26 IPFIP 2.12 → 2.83 (+0.72)K% 27.6% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.59%	—	×0.810	22.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×1.100	7.59%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷0.860	×1.200	1.20%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 2.12 → 2.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Derek Law (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.10	23.2%	8.3%	2.8%	—	4.68	21.6%	12.4%	92	+0.58	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	65
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	65
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	65
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	63
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	61
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	60
Peter Moylan R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	36	SU	3.11	18.4%	8.2%	0.9%	.259	3.84	18.2%	9.1%	145	+0.73	2.54	431	59
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	58
Daniel Bard R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	36	SU	3.62	26.3%	11.5%	2.3%	.337	3.64	24.6%	10.3%	110	+0.02	2.56	456	58
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	57
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	57
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	56
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	55
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	55
Matt Bush R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	36	SU	3.73	30.3%	6.6%	4.3%	.224	3.79	26.2%	17.5%	36	+0.06	2.87	249	55
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	51
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	48
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	47
Leo Rosales R 2017 · 4.24 FIP	36	SU	4.24	7.8%	8.2%	1.4%	.203	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	130	44
Pete Walker R 2005 · 4.79 FIP	36	SU	4.79	12.0%	9.2%	2.8%	.261	4.45	19.6%	11.6%	30	-0.34	4.45	327	41

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	66	21.4%	9.0%	1.00	3.82
Kerry Ligtenberg ('05)	2.0	65	21.5%	9.5%	1.06	3.82
T.J. Mathews ('02)	2.2	62	19.1%	8.8%	1.01	3.82
Joe Borowski ('08)	2.3	57	18.9%	9.0%	1.05	4.18
Bobby Thigpen ('86-'94, 7 WAR*)	2.8	71	20.5%*	9.4%*	1.09*	3.60*
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*