Michael Grove
P
Durham Bulls
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10696vR 87
ERA4.24
FIP4.03
K%24.5%
BB%6.7%
K-BB%17.8%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p5826.6%
K%
p6525.0%
xwOBA vs
p640.298
SL+5.7 (53%)
SI (22%)
CU (7%)
FB-0.8 (24%)
CT-3.9 (16%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 21 | 21 | 52 | 231 | 73 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 2.5 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 14.9% | 4.0% | 6.10 | 4.46 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 21 | 21 | 52 | 231 | 73 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 2.5 | 31.6% | 8.2% | 23.4% | 3.0% | 6.10 | 3.14 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 21 | 19 | 71 | 338 | 88 | 42 | 19 | 90% | 3.4 | 21.1% | 13.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.86 | 7.31 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 21 | 19 | 71 | 338 | 88 | 42 | 19 | 90% | 3.4 | 26.0% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 5.6% | 7.86 | 5.87 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 23 | 105 | 455 | 114 | 35 | 17 | 88% | 4.1 | 22.3% | 8.0% | 14.3% | 4.1% | 4.02 | 4.48 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 23 | 105 | 455 | 114 | 35 | 17 | 88% | 4.1 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 17.4% | 3.7% | 4.02 | 4.03 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 14 | 82 | 355 | 95 | 20 | 14 | 61% | 3.6 | 26.0% | 5.6% | 20.4% | 4.2% | 5.57 | 3.92 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 14 | 82 | 355 | 95 | 20 | 14 | 61% | 3.6 | 26.8% | 5.6% | 21.1% | 3.9% | 5.57 | 3.73 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 2 | 62 | 259 | 65 | 19 | 7 | 4% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 7.4% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 3.54 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 2 | 62 | 259 | 65 | 19 | 7 | 4% | 1.3 | 25.1% | 7.3% | 17.8% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 3.39 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 12 | 3 | 21 | 87 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 25% | 1.7 | 26.4% | 10.5% | 15.9% | 3.1% | 3.48 | 3.93 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TB | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 45 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 6.7% | 17.8% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TB | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 45 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 6.7% | 17.8% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | TB | — | — | 64 | 269 | 74 | 19 | 8 | — | — | 27.4% | 7.2% | 20.2% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 4.00 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | TB | — | — | 46 | 195 | 74 | 19 | 8 | — | — | 37.8% | 9.9% | 27.9% | 4.0% | 5.53 | 3.37 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 64 | 272 | 65 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 16.8% | 3.4% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 60 | 254 | 59 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 15.7% | 3.6% | 4.38 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 56 | 235 | 52 | 18 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.3% | 7.8% | 14.5% | 3.9% | 4.59 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 61 | 18 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 16.8% | 3.4% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 56 | 18 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 15.7% | 3.6% | 4.38 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 50 | 17 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 7.8% | 14.5% | 3.9% | 4.59 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 135 | 49 | 367 | 1566 | 367 | 110 | 56 | 36% | 2.7 | 23.4% | 7.0% | 16.4% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 3.98 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 26 | 200 | 854 | 200 | 60 | 31 | 36% | 2.7 | 23.4% | 7.0% | 16.4% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 152 | 82 | 393 | 1725 | 409 | 153 | 79 | 54% | 2.6 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 4.6% | 5.35 | 4.75 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 42 | 200 | 877 | 208 | 78 | 40 | 54% | 2.6 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 4.6% | 5.35 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Grove (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.03 | 24.5% | 6.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.46 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 180 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 70 |
| Phil Klein R 2024 · 3.17 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.17 | 24.5% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 178 | 68 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.76 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 3.99 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.23 | 3.73 | 725 | 67 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 67 |
| Mayckol Guaipe R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.74 | 26.0% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .432 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.88 | 136 | 67 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 65 |
| Steve Johnson R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 64 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 63 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.82 | 27.3% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .339 | 4.62 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 176 | +0.80 | 2.21 | 778 | 62 |
| Junior Guerra R 2027 · 3.02 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.02 | 26.8% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .269 | 4.29 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 390 | +1.27 | 3.02 | 646 | 62 |
| Austin Pruitt R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 20.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .327 | 4.10 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 95 | -0.02 | 2.95 | 819 | 62 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 61 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.31 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .356 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 141 | +0.16 | 2.93 | 432 | 61 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 61 |
| Ross Stripling R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.39 | 25.1% | 5.4% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.25 | 20.7% | 15.0% | 285 | +0.86 | 3.05 | 930 | 60 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 59 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 59 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 59 |
| Wilmer Font R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.43 | 26.7% | 7.6% | 4.8% | .281 | 4.24 | 17.6% | 7.0% | 16 | -0.19 | 2.78 | 345 | 59 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.8% | 4.9% | 3.1% | .279 | 3.06 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 60 | -0.52 | 2.22 | 385 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 23.4% | 7.3% | 1.38 | 4.36 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |