Michael Grove — OGILVIE

Michael Grove P Durham Bulls

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 84

ERA3.86

FIP3.63

K%24.3%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%17.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p5826.6%

p6525.0%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

SL+5.7 (53%)

SI (22%)

CU (7%)

FB-0.8 (24%)

CT-3.9 (16%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	21	21	52	231	73	19	7	100%	2.5	24.3%	9.5%	14.9%	3.9%	6.10	4.39	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	21	21	52	231	73	19	7	100%	2.5	31.6%	8.2%	23.4%	3.0%	6.10	3.14	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	21	19	71	338	88	42	19	90%	3.4	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	7.2%	7.86	7.01	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	21	19	71	338	88	42	19	90%	3.4	26.0%	12.4%	13.6%	5.6%	7.86	5.87	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	23	105	455	114	35	17	88%	4.1	22.3%	8.0%	14.3%	4.0%	4.02	4.40	+0.6
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	23	105	455	114	35	17	88%	4.1	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	3.7%	4.02	4.03	+1.1
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	14	82	355	95	20	14	61%	3.6	25.7%	5.6%	20.1%	3.9%	5.57	3.76	+1.1
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	14	82	355	95	20	14	61%	3.6	25.7%	5.6%	20.1%	3.9%	5.57	3.76	+1.1
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	14	82	355	95	20	14	61%	3.6	26.8%	5.6%	21.1%	3.9%	5.57	3.73	+1.2
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	2	62	259	65	19	7	4%	1.3	25.0%	7.4%	17.6%	2.7%	4.48	3.39	+0.9
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	2	62	259	65	19	7	4%	1.3	25.0%	7.4%	17.6%	2.7%	4.48	3.39	+0.9
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	2	62	259	65	19	7	4%	1.3	25.1%	7.3%	17.8%	2.7%	4.48	3.39	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			67	20	156	679	157	44	27	30%	2.3	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	4.0%	5.47	4.18	+0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	26	4	42	176	49	14	5	15%	1.6	23.0%	8.9%	14.0%	1.6%	3.64	3.15	—
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	26	4	42	176	49	14	5	15%	1.6	23.0%	8.9%	14.0%	1.6%	3.64	3.15	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	ROK RAW	TB	2	2	2	7	4	0	0	100%	1.0	57.1%	0.0%	57.1%	0.0%	0.00	-1.73	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	TB	21	2	33	141	39	14	2	10%	1.6	27.7%	9.9%	17.7%	1.4%	3.55	2.80	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	TB	3	0	7	28	6	0	3	0%	2.3	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	10.7%	5.14	7.17	—
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	TB	3	0	7	28	6	0	3	0%	2.3	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	10.7%	5.14	7.17	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	TB	6	0	6	26	6	2	1	0%	1.0	24.3%	6.9%	17.4%	3.1%	3.86	3.63	+0.1
ROS	29	MLB CTX	TB	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	24.3%	6.9%	17.4%	3.1%	3.86	3.63	+0.1
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	48	202	55	16	6	—	—	27.4%	7.8%	19.6%	2.9%	3.67	3.21	+0.8
FULL	29	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	13	56	55	16	6	—	—	99.2%	28.3%	70.9%	10.4%	13.38	4.03	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TB	61	0	64	272	64	18	10	0%	1.1	23.5%	6.5%	17.0%	3.7%	4.38	4.37	+0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	TB	57	0	60	254	58	17	10	0%	1.1	22.8%	6.9%	15.9%	4.0%	4.51	4.60	-0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	TB	58	0	61	258	61	17	10	0%	1.1	23.5%	6.5%	17.0%	3.7%	4.38	4.37	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	TB	54	0	57	241	55	17	10	0%	1.1	22.8%	6.9%	15.9%	4.0%	4.51	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		186	20	281	1205	279	79	47	11%	1.5	23.2%	6.6%	16.6%	3.9%	5.00	4.12	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		132	14	200	858	199	56	33	11%	1.5	23.2%	6.6%	16.6%	3.9%	5.00	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		166	83	415	1814	426	159	75	50%	2.5	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	4.1%	5.27	4.49	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	40	200	875	205	77	36	50%	2.5	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	4.1%	5.27	4.49	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Grove (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.98	24.5%	6.7%	3.1%	—	4.48	23.2%	16.5%	125	+0.50	—	—	—
Radhames Liz R 2015 · 2.81 FIP	31	SW	2.81	24.8%	9.2%	1.2%	.283	4.45	21.8%	7.9%	23	+1.64	2.81	110	73
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	178	73
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	73
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	72
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	72
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	71
Austin Pruitt R 2019 · 4.21 FIP	29	SW	4.21	20.5%	5.5%	3.9%	.327	4.13	18.3%	14.4%	95	-0.08	2.94	819	68
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	67
Mayckol Guaipe R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SW	4.18	26.0%	7.6%	4.2%	.432	—	—	—	—	—	1.88	136	66
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	66
Deolis Guerra R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	29	SU	3.59	26.4%	7.1%	3.3%	.280	3.20	26.6%	19.8%	132	-0.39	2.53	364	65
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	65
Casey Sadler R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	29	SU	3.56	21.8%	4.9%	3.1%	.279	3.04	25.1%	15.9%	60	-0.52	2.21	385	65
Dinelson Lamet R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	29	SW	3.67	27.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.339	4.64	20.3%	8.2%	176	+0.97	2.11	778	65
Josh Lindblom R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	30	SW	3.91	18.7%	5.5%	3.1%	.333	3.50	27.2%	18.8%	45	-0.41	3.50	348	64
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	64
Wilmer Font R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	29	SW	4.43	26.7%	7.6%	4.8%	.281	4.24	17.6%	7.0%	16	-0.19	2.76	345	63
Elian Leyva R 2018 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.20	3.10	158	63
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	63
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	23.6%	6.7%	1.39	4.36
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Erik Swanson ('24)	1.3	51	26.2%	6.5%	1.57	3.70
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79