Michael Tonkin
P
St. Paul Saints
+0.3
WAR
Age 36
RHP
6'7" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.11
FIP4.14
xFIP5.10
SIERA4.34
K%23.1%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%15.2%
IP41
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD5050
K†5555
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p1720.7%
K%
p2418.4%
xwOBA vs
p140.355
SL+1.2 (35%)
SI (11%)
FB-1.0 (65%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 59 | 0 | 64 | 250 | 65 | 12 | 6 | 23.8% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.96 | 3.08 | +1.4 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 65 | 0 | 72 | 315 | 80 | 24 | 13 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 5.02 | 4.31 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 47 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 85 | 25 | 7 | 29.2% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 2.87 | 3.24 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Reno Aces | 19 | 0 | 22 | 101 | 25 | 13 | 6 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 6.2% | 5.73 | 6.36 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 32 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 47 | 0 | 48 | 200 | 73 | 15 | 3 | 32.1% | 7.9% | 1.7% | 3.17 | 2.30 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 46 | 0 | 81 | 328 | 77 | 22 | 13 | 23.1% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 4.22 | 4.11 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 57 | 0 | 79 | 340 | 85 | 29 | 6 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 1.8% | 3.63 | 3.05 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 40 | 0 | 54 | 232 | 56 | 15 | 10 | 21.8% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 4.67 | 4.17 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | MIN | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 21.2% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | MIN | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 20.4% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 380 | 0 | 483 | 2032 | 515 | 158 | 63 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 3.78 | 3.66 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 157 | 0 | 200 | 841 | 213 | 65 | 26 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 3.78 | 3.66 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Tonkin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.52 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 73 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 75 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 71 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 71 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 70 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2024 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 69 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.78 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 5.73 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 27 | +1.95 | 2.41 | 339 | 69 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.11 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.86 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 145 | +0.75 | 3.11 | 174 | 69 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 69 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.29 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 326 | 69 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.73 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.99 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 103 | +0.26 | 3.50 | 219 | 69 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.32 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 1.4% | .341 | 7.44 | 8.3% | -0.9% | 22 | +4.12 | 3.32 | 209 | 68 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 68 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 68 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 138 | 68 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.46 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.6% | .298 | 5.44 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.98 | 3.21 | 225 | 68 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 68 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 67 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.02 | 22.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | .292 | 5.18 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 24 | +1.16 | 2.73 | 316 | 67 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.64 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.19 | 404 | 67 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.19 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.0% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 244 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.