Michael Tonkin

P St. Paul Saints

Age 37 RHP 6'7" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	33	MIX2 levels	46	0	81	4.22	4.10	23.5%	6.7%	0.4	K 23.1% · BB 6.8% · FIP 4.20
2024	34	MLBMIN	57	0	79	3.63	3.04	25.0%	8.5%	1.4
2025	35	MIX3 levels	40	0	54	4.67	4.27	24.1%	6.5%	0.2	K 21.5% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.33
2026	36	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	37	MLBMIN	5	0	5	4.18	4.28	21.9%	7.6%	0.0
2028PROJMLE	38	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.50	4.71	20.7%	8.3%	—
2029PROJMLE	39	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.89	5.14	19.6%	9.0%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%24

FB Velo21

xwOBA vs14

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Juan Sandoval (age 36) · Scott Atchison (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA4.18

FIP4.28

K%21.9%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%14.2%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p2418.4%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2013	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	9	0	11	47	10	3	0	0%	1.3	21.3%	6.4%	14.9%	0.0%	0.79	2.11	+0.3
2013	23	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	9	0	11	47	10	3	0	0%	1.3	21.3%	6.4%	14.9%	0.0%	0.79	2.13	+0.3
2014	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	25	0	19	87	16	6	2	0%	0.8	18.4%	6.9%	11.5%	2.3%	4.74	3.68	+0.2
2014	24	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	25	0	19	87	16	6	2	0%	0.8	18.4%	6.9%	11.5%	2.3%	4.74	3.73	+0.2
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	64	250	65	12	6	0%	1.1	23.8%	4.9%	18.9%	2.5%	1.96	3.09	+1.1
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	64	250	65	12	6	0%	1.1	26.0%	4.8%	21.2%	2.4%	1.96	2.85	+1.3
2016	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	65	0	72	315	80	24	13	0%	1.1	25.4%	7.6%	17.8%	4.1%	5.02	4.17	+0.3
2016	26	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	65	0	72	315	80	24	13	0%	1.1	25.4%	7.6%	17.8%	4.1%	5.02	4.23	+0.3
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	63	266	85	25	7	0%	1.3	29.2%	9.6%	19.6%	2.7%	2.87	3.32	+0.9
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	63	266	85	25	7	0%	1.3	32.0%	9.4%	22.6%	2.6%	2.87	3.04	+1.1
2019	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	19	0	22	101	25	13	6	0%	1.2	21.8%	13.5%	8.3%	6.1%	5.73	6.30	—
2019	29	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	19	0	22	101	25	13	6	0%	1.2	24.8%	12.9%	11.9%	5.9%	5.73	6.15	—
2022	32	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	47	0	48	200	73	15	3	0%	1.0	32.1%	7.9%	24.2%	1.7%	3.17	2.31	—
2022	32	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	47	0	48	200	73	15	3	0%	1.0	36.5%	7.5%	29.0%	1.5%	3.17	1.82	—
2023	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	81	328	77	22	13	0%	1.8	23.1%	6.8%	16.3%	4.0%	4.22	4.20	+0.3
2023	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	81	328	77	22	13	0%	1.8	23.5%	6.7%	16.8%	4.0%	4.22	4.10	+0.4
2024	34	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	57	0	79	340	85	29	6	0%	1.4	25.0%	8.5%	16.5%	1.8%	3.63	3.03	+1.4
2024	34	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	57	0	79	340	85	29	6	0%	1.4	25.0%	8.5%	16.5%	1.8%	3.63	3.03	+1.4
2024	34	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	57	0	79	340	85	29	6	0%	1.4	25.0%	8.5%	16.5%	1.8%	3.63	3.04	+1.4
2025	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	54	232	56	15	10	0%	1.4	21.5%	6.4%	15.2%	4.1%	4.67	4.33	+0.1
2025	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	54	232	56	15	10	0%	1.4	21.5%	6.4%	15.2%	4.1%	4.67	4.33	+0.1
2025	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	54	232	56	15	10	0%	1.4	24.1%	6.5%	17.7%	4.3%	4.67	4.27	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			264	0	330	1413	328	111	47	0%	1.2	23.2%	7.9%	15.4%	3.3%	4.23	3.97	+2.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	MIN	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	7.6%	14.2%	3.1%	4.18	4.28	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	MIN	34	0	35	149	31	12	5	0%	1.0	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	3.5%	4.50	4.71	-0.1
2029	39	MLB MLE	MIN	24	0	25	105	21	9	4	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.0%	10.5%	4.0%	4.89	5.14	-0.2
2028	38	MLB CTX	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	3.5%	4.50	4.71	—
2029	39	MLB CTX	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.6%	9.0%	10.5%	4.0%	4.89	5.14	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		264	0	330	1413	328	111	47	0%	1.2	23.2%	7.9%	15.4%	3.3%	4.23	3.96	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		160	0	200	857	199	67	29	0%	1.2	23.2%	7.9%	15.4%	3.3%	4.23	3.96	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		414	0	514	2166	540	166	66	0%	1.2	24.9%	7.7%	17.3%	3.1%	3.75	3.65	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	0	200	843	210	65	26	0%	1.2	24.9%	7.7%	17.3%	3.1%	3.75	3.65	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 28 IPFIP 4.64 → 4.51 (−0.13)K% 28.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.10%	—	×0.860	24.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.79%	—	×0.900	5.21%
HR / BF /BF	5.79%	÷1.253	×1.100	5.08%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 48 IPFIP 1.79 → 2.31 (+0.52)K% 36.5% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.50%	—	×0.880	32.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.50%	—	×1.050	7.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.50%	÷0.981	×1.100	1.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 1.79 → 2.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAReno Aces · 22 IPFIP 5.90 → 6.30 (+0.40)K% 24.8% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.75%	—	×0.880	21.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.87%	—	×1.050	13.51%
HR / BF /BF	5.94%	÷1.077	×1.100	6.07%

Result: FIP 5.90 → 6.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAARochester Red Wings · 42 IPFIP 1.35 → 1.81 (+0.46)K% 36.1% → 31.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.09%	—	×0.880	31.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.050	8.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.59%	÷0.956	×1.100	0.68%

Result: FIP 1.35 → 1.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAARochester Red Wings · 41 IPFIP 1.67 → 2.11 (+0.44)K% 30.5% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.46%	—	×0.880	26.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.31%	—	×1.050	3.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.956	×1.100	1.52%

Result: FIP 1.67 → 2.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Tonkin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	21.9%	7.6%	3.1%	—	4.89	20.2%	11.6%	60	+0.61	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	77
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	76
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	71
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	71
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	70
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	69
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	68
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	64
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	64
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	62
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	59
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	56
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	56
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	54
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	39
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	39
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	36
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	35
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	32

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	49	22.6%	8.1%	1.29	4.28
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Ed Nunez ('82-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.3	54	24.5%*	9.5%*	1.24*	4.37*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*