Michael Tonkin — OGILVIE

Michael Tonkin P St. Paul Saints

Age 36 RHP 6'7" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.17

FIP4.25

K%22.0%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%14.5%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p2418.4%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

SL+1.2 (35%)

SI (11%)

FB-1.0 (65%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	64	250	65	12	6	0%	1.1	23.8%	4.9%	18.9%	2.5%	1.96	3.09	+1.1
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	64	250	65	12	6	0%	1.1	26.0%	4.8%	21.2%	2.4%	1.96	2.85	+1.3
2016	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	65	0	72	315	80	24	13	0%	1.1	25.4%	7.6%	17.8%	4.1%	5.02	4.17	+0.3
2016	26	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	65	0	72	315	80	24	13	0%	1.1	25.4%	7.6%	17.8%	4.1%	5.02	4.23	+0.3
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	63	266	85	25	7	0%	1.3	29.2%	9.6%	19.6%	2.7%	2.87	3.32	+0.9
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	63	266	85	25	7	0%	1.3	32.0%	9.4%	22.6%	2.6%	2.87	3.04	+1.1
2019	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	19	0	22	101	25	13	6	0%	1.2	21.8%	13.5%	8.3%	6.1%	5.73	6.30	—
2019	29	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	19	0	22	101	25	13	6	0%	1.2	24.8%	12.9%	11.9%	5.9%	5.73	6.15	—
2022	32	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	47	0	48	200	73	15	3	0%	1.0	32.1%	7.9%	24.2%	1.7%	3.17	2.31	—
2022	32	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	47	0	48	200	73	15	3	0%	1.0	36.5%	7.5%	29.0%	1.5%	3.17	1.82	—
2023	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	81	328	77	22	13	0%	1.8	23.1%	6.8%	16.3%	4.0%	4.22	4.20	+0.3
2023	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	81	328	77	22	13	0%	1.8	23.1%	6.8%	16.3%	4.0%	4.22	4.20	+0.3
2023	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	81	328	77	22	13	0%	1.8	23.5%	6.7%	16.8%	4.0%	4.22	4.10	+0.4
2024	34	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	57	0	79	340	85	29	6	0%	1.4	25.0%	8.5%	16.5%	1.8%	3.63	3.03	+1.4
2024	34	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	57	0	79	340	85	29	6	0%	1.4	25.0%	8.5%	16.5%	1.8%	3.63	3.03	+1.4
2024	34	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	57	0	79	340	85	29	6	0%	1.4	25.0%	8.5%	16.5%	1.8%	3.63	3.04	+1.4
2025	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	54	232	56	15	10	0%	1.4	21.1%	6.4%	14.7%	4.1%	4.67	4.37	+0.1
2025	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	54	232	56	15	10	0%	1.4	21.1%	6.4%	14.7%	4.1%	4.67	4.37	+0.1
2025	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	54	232	56	15	10	0%	1.4	24.1%	6.5%	17.7%	4.3%	4.67	4.27	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			230	0	299	1279	302	102	45	0%	1.3	23.6%	8.0%	15.6%	3.5%	4.33	4.06	+1.7
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	36	MLB	MIN	4	0	4	17	4	1	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	7.5%	14.5%	3.0%	4.17	4.25	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	MIN	34	0	36	151	32	12	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	8.2%	12.7%	3.5%	4.46	4.65	-0.0
2027	37	MLB CTX	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.9%	8.2%	12.7%	3.5%	4.46	4.65	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		230	0	300	1281	302	102	45	0%	1.3	23.6%	8.0%	15.6%	3.5%	4.33	4.05	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		154	0	200	855	202	68	30	0%	1.3	23.6%	8.0%	15.6%	3.5%	4.33	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		380	0	483	2032	513	157	64	0%	1.3	25.2%	7.7%	17.5%	3.2%	3.78	3.69	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	0	200	841	212	65	27	0%	1.3	25.2%	7.7%	17.5%	3.2%	3.78	3.69	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Tonkin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	22.0%	7.5%	3.0%	—	4.65	20.9%	12.7%	36	+0.40	—	—	—
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	78
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	76
Blaine Boyer R 2017 · 3.24 FIP	36	SU	3.24	18.0%	7.6%	1.3%	.341	7.38	8.3%	-0.9%	22	+4.14	3.24	209	76
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	75
Blake Parker R 2021 · 3.86 FIP	36	SU	3.86	20.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.295	5.74	26.0%	14.0%	27	+1.88	2.52	339	75
Santiago Casilla R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	36	SU	3.69	27.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.278	4.13	19.8%	8.7%	103	+0.44	3.50	219	75
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	74
Carlos Torres R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	36	SU	4.28	17.8%	9.0%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	326	74
Matt Albers R 2019 · 4.13 FIP	36	SU	4.13	22.1%	10.1%	2.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	244	74
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	73
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	73
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	72
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	70
Tommy Hunter R 2022 · 3.98 FIP	36	SU	3.98	22.1%	4.5%	4.0%	.292	5.22	18.9%	14.2%	24	+1.24	2.78	316	70
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	69
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	68
Peter Moylan R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	36	SU	3.11	18.4%	8.2%	0.9%	.259	3.84	18.2%	9.1%	145	+0.73	3.11	174	68
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	68
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	67
John Axford R 2018 · 3.64 FIP	35	SU	3.64	23.2%	9.0%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	197	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	38	21.5%	7.8%	1.25	4.31
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97