Michael Tonkin
P
St. Paul Saints
Age 36
RHP
6'7" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA4.13
FIP4.19
K%22.2%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%14.5%
ROS IP41
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p1720.7%
K%
p2418.4%
xwOBA vs
p140.355
SL+1.2 (35%)
SI (11%)
FB-1.0 (65%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 64 | 250 | 65 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 4.9% | 18.9% | 2.5% | 1.96 | 3.11 | +1.2 |
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 64 | 250 | 65 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 4.8% | 21.2% | 2.4% | 1.96 | 2.85 | +1.3 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 65 | 0 | 72 | 315 | 80 | 24 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 17.8% | 4.1% | 5.02 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 65 | 0 | 72 | 315 | 80 | 24 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 17.8% | 4.1% | 5.02 | 4.23 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 85 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.2% | 9.6% | 19.6% | 2.7% | 2.87 | 3.33 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 85 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.0% | 9.4% | 22.6% | 2.6% | 2.87 | 3.04 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Reno Aces | 19 | 0 | 22 | 101 | 25 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 5.73 | 6.08 | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Reno Aces | 19 | 0 | 22 | 101 | 25 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.8% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 5.9% | 5.73 | 6.15 | — |
| 2022 | 32 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 47 | 0 | 48 | 200 | 73 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.1% | 7.9% | 24.2% | 1.7% | 3.17 | 2.33 | — |
| 2022 | 32 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 47 | 0 | 48 | 200 | 73 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.5% | 7.5% | 29.0% | 1.5% | 3.17 | 1.82 | — |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 81 | 328 | 77 | 22 | 13 | 0% | 1.8 | 23.1% | 6.8% | 16.3% | 4.0% | 4.22 | 4.20 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 81 | 328 | 77 | 22 | 13 | 0% | 1.8 | 23.5% | 6.7% | 16.8% | 4.0% | 4.22 | 4.10 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 57 | 0 | 79 | 340 | 85 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 1.7% | 3.63 | 3.03 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 57 | 0 | 79 | 340 | 85 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 1.8% | 3.63 | 3.04 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 54 | 232 | 56 | 15 | 10 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.8% | 6.9% | 15.0% | 3.6% | 4.67 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 54 | 232 | 56 | 15 | 10 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.1% | 6.5% | 17.7% | 4.3% | 4.67 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 7.7% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | MIN | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 32 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 4.41 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | MIN | 29 | 0 | 31 | 130 | 26 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 4.78 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | MIN | 25 | 0 | 26 | 112 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 5.19 | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.1% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 4.41 | 4.60 | — |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 4.78 | 5.03 | — |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.8% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 5.19 | 5.46 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 230 | 0 | 300 | 1281 | 302 | 102 | 45 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 15.6% | 3.5% | 4.33 | 4.05 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 0 | 200 | 855 | 202 | 68 | 30 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 15.6% | 3.5% | 4.33 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 380 | 0 | 483 | 2032 | 515 | 158 | 63 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 17.5% | 3.1% | 3.78 | 3.65 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 157 | 0 | 200 | 841 | 213 | 66 | 26 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 17.5% | 3.1% | 3.78 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Tonkin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 22.2% | 7.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.99 | 20.1% | 11.1% | 93 | +0.80 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 73 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 72 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 72 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 72 |
| Luis Ayala R 2027 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 71 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.70 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .278 | 4.06 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 103 | +0.36 | 3.51 | 219 | 71 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 70 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 70 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 70 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.21 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .341 | 7.33 | 8.3% | -0.9% | 22 | +4.12 | 3.21 | 209 | 69 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 69 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.86 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .295 | 5.60 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 27 | +1.74 | 2.61 | 339 | 68 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.10 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.82 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 145 | +0.72 | 3.10 | 174 | 68 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.28 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 244 | 68 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.25 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 326 | 68 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.96 | 22.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | .292 | 5.23 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 24 | +1.27 | 2.82 | 316 | 68 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 68 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 67 |
| Rafael Martín R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.60 | 22.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 227 | 66 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.51 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .347 | 5.90 | 19.1% | 2.3% | 22 | +2.39 | 2.19 | 426 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 34 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 1.36 | 4.56 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |