Shane Greene
P
Round Rock Express
Age 37
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 100
ERA4.30
FIP4.39
K%22.9%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p2922.4%
K%
p4321.2%
xwOBA vs
p440.318
CT+1.0
FB-0.7
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 119 | 525 | 71 | 34 | 15 | 92% | 4.7 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 5.99 | 4.60 | +1.1 |
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 119 | 525 | 71 | 34 | 15 | 92% | 4.7 | 13.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 5.99 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| 2016 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 53 | 6 | 71 | 301 | 76 | 22 | 4 | 11% | 1.3 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 14.8% | 1.3% | 5.05 | 2.90 | +1.6 |
| 2016 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 53 | 6 | 71 | 301 | 76 | 22 | 4 | 11% | 1.3 | 25.2% | 7.3% | 17.9% | 1.3% | 5.05 | 2.62 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 71 | 0 | 68 | 283 | 73 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 2.3% | 2.66 | 3.54 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 71 | 0 | 68 | 283 | 73 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 2.1% | 2.66 | 3.43 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 66 | 0 | 63 | 279 | 65 | 18 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 6.5% | 16.8% | 4.7% | 5.12 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 66 | 0 | 63 | 279 | 65 | 18 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 6.5% | 16.8% | 4.3% | 5.12 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 65 | 0 | 63 | 252 | 64 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 6.3% | 19.0% | 3.2% | 2.30 | 3.50 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 65 | 0 | 63 | 252 | 64 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 6.3% | 19.0% | 3.2% | 2.30 | 3.48 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 28 | 0 | 28 | 109 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 1.8% | 2.60 | 3.41 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 28 | 0 | 28 | 109 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 1.8% | 2.60 | 3.39 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 28 | 132 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.2% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 6.43 | 5.96 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 28 | 132 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 4.5% | 6.43 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 37 | 176 | 41 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 2.0% | 5.54 | 3.97 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 37 | 176 | 41 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 2.3% | 5.54 | 3.90 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 34 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 7 | 32 | 138 | 34 | 14 | 2 | 50% | 2.3 | 21.6% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 2.1% | 1.67 | 3.91 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 34 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 7 | 32 | 138 | 34 | 14 | 2 | 50% | 2.3 | 24.6% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 1.4% | 1.67 | 3.10 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 35 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 6 | 1 | 8 | 49 | 11 | 14 | 0 | 17% | 1.3 | 22.4% | 28.6% | -6.1% | 0.0% | 16.88 | 4.82 | — |
| 2024 | 35 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 6 | 1 | 8 | 49 | 11 | 14 | 0 | 17% | 1.3 | 22.4% | 28.6% | -6.1% | 0.0% | 16.88 | 5.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | TEX | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | TEX | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | TEX | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 371 | 19 | 438 | 1872 | 401 | 151 | 57 | 5% | 1.2 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.00 | +7.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 169 | 9 | 200 | 855 | 183 | 69 | 26 | 5% | 1.2 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 389 | 37 | 517 | 2244 | 467 | 199 | 64 | 10% | 1.3 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.04 | +8.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 150 | 14 | 200 | 868 | 181 | 77 | 25 | 10% | 1.3 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane Greene (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.82 | 21.8% | 11.7% | 43 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 37 | SU | 4.04 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .289 | 4.08 | 16.8% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.04 | 3.51 | 219 | 89 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 87 |
| Jean Machi R 2024 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 83 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 81 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 240 | 79 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 79 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2025 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 77 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.61 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .241 | 4.59 | 15.4% | 9.2% | 34 | +0.98 | 2.51 | 174 | 77 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 77 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.83 | 26.6% | 9.3% | 3.3% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 249 | 73 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 71 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.63 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 140 | 68 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 68 |
| Jason Motte R 2024 · 5.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.16 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 113 | 68 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.24 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 326 | 67 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.58 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 88 | +0.40 | 3.10 | 174 | 67 |
| Logan Kensing R 2024 · 3.26 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.26 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 1.0% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 172 | 67 |
| Joe Blanton R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.94 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 240 | 65 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 63 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.30 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.81 | 226 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 46 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 1.25 | 4.44 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |