Shane Greene — OGILVIE

Shane Greene P Round Rock Express

Age 37 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.28

FIP4.38

K%22.9%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p2922.4%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

CT+1.0

FB-0.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	119	525	71	34	15	92%	4.7	13.0%	6.6%	6.5%	3.0%	5.99	4.50	+0.5
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	119	525	71	34	15	92%	4.7	13.5%	6.5%	7.0%	2.9%	5.99	4.41	+0.7
2016	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	53	6	71	301	76	22	4	11%	1.3	23.0%	8.2%	14.8%	1.2%	5.05	2.86	+1.4
2016	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	53	6	71	301	76	22	4	11%	1.3	25.2%	7.3%	17.9%	1.3%	5.05	2.62	+1.7
2017	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	71	0	68	283	73	30	6	0%	1.0	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	2.2%	2.66	3.48	+0.9
2017	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	71	0	68	283	73	30	6	0%	1.0	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	2.1%	2.66	3.43	+0.9
2018	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	66	0	63	279	65	18	12	0%	1.0	23.3%	6.5%	16.8%	4.5%	5.12	4.42	+0.1
2018	29	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	66	0	63	279	65	18	12	0%	1.0	23.3%	6.5%	16.8%	4.3%	5.12	4.36	+0.1
2019	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	65	0	63	252	64	16	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	6.3%	19.0%	3.2%	2.30	3.50	+0.8
2019	30	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	65	0	63	252	64	16	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	6.3%	19.0%	3.2%	2.30	3.48	+0.8
2020	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	28	0	28	109	21	8	2	0%	1.0	19.3%	7.3%	11.9%	1.8%	2.60	3.41	+0.4
2020	31	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	28	0	28	109	21	8	2	0%	1.0	19.3%	7.3%	11.9%	1.8%	2.60	3.39	+0.4
2021	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	28	132	29	16	6	0%	0.9	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	5.1%	6.43	5.67	-0.4
2021	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	28	132	29	16	6	0%	0.9	22.0%	12.1%	9.8%	4.5%	6.43	5.53	-0.3
2022	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	37	176	41	20	4	0%	1.3	21.1%	12.2%	8.8%	2.0%	5.54	3.98	+0.3
2022	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	37	176	41	20	4	0%	1.3	23.3%	11.4%	11.9%	2.3%	5.54	3.90	+0.3
2023	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	7	32	138	34	14	2	50%	2.3	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	2.1%	1.67	3.76	+0.4
2023	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	7	32	138	34	14	2	50%	2.3	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	2.1%	1.67	3.76	+0.4
2023	34	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	7	32	138	34	14	2	50%	2.3	24.6%	10.1%	14.5%	1.4%	1.67	3.10	+0.7
2024	35	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	6	1	8	49	11	14	0	17%	1.3	22.4%	28.6%	-6.1%	0.0%	16.88	4.82	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	6	1	8	49	11	14	0	17%	1.3	22.4%	28.6%	-6.1%	0.0%	16.88	4.82	—
2024	35	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	6	1	8	49	11	14	0	17%	1.3	22.4%	28.6%	-6.1%	0.0%	16.88	5.60	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			330	19	395	1690	361	133	51	6%	1.2	21.4%	7.9%	13.5%	3.0%	4.65	3.96	+2.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	TEX	4	0	4	17	4	2	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.2%	13.6%	3.0%	4.28	4.38	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	TEX	41	0	43	182	39	18	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	10.0%	11.8%	3.5%	4.60	4.81	-0.1
2027	38	MLB CTX	TEX	41	0	43	182	39	18	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	10.0%	11.8%	3.5%	4.60	4.81	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		371	19	438	1872	400	151	57	5%	1.2	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	3.1%	4.64	4.00	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		169	9	200	855	183	69	26	5%	1.2	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	3.1%	4.64	4.00	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		389	37	517	2244	465	197	62	10%	1.3	20.7%	8.8%	12.0%	2.7%	4.58	3.97	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	14	200	868	180	76	24	10%	1.3	20.7%	8.8%	12.0%	2.7%	4.58	3.97	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Greene (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	22.9%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.81	21.7%	11.8%	43	+0.43	—	—	—
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	87
Santiago Casilla R 2017 · 4.13 FIP	37	SU	4.13	22.0%	8.1%	3.4%	.289	4.14	16.8%	1.6%	44	+0.01	3.50	219	84
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	82
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	81
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	77
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	77
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	77
Matt Belisle R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	37	SU	3.62	21.9%	6.5%	2.8%	.241	4.60	15.4%	9.2%	34	+0.98	2.51	174	76
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	37	SU	3.83	25.8%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	73
Ryan Madson R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	37	SU	3.49	23.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	240	72
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	71
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	68
Ramon E Ramirez R 2017 · 3.49 FIP	35	SU	3.49	14.0%	5.8%	1.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	140	68
Peter Moylan R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	37	SU	3.59	17.7%	7.9%	1.8%	.263	4.00	18.5%	8.6%	88	+0.41	3.11	174	68
Logan Kensing R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	35	SU	3.28	16.5%	7.9%	1.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.73	172	68
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	68
Jason Motte R 2017 · 5.16 FIP	35	SU	5.16	16.3%	11.4%	3.6%	.193	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	113	67
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	65
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	62
Chien-Ming Wang R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	36	SU	4.53	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	183	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	46	22.3%	9.6%	1.25	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64