Brody McCullough

Brody McCullough P Knoxville Smokies

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.32

FIP4.32

K%22.9%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%13.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD5060

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	7	26	12	2	0	0%	1.4	46.2%	7.7%	38.5%	0.0%	1.29	0.18	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	7	26	12	2	0	0%	1.4	46.2%	7.7%	38.5%	0.0%	1.29	0.53	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	86	351	108	31	6	100%	4.1	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	2.1%	3.44	3.58	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	86	351	108	31	6	100%	4.1	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	2.1%	3.44	3.58	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	86	351	108	31	6	100%	4.1	30.8%	8.8%	21.9%	1.7%	3.44	2.58	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	15	56	15	5	1	75%	3.7	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	1.8%	1.84	2.95	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	15	56	15	5	1	75%	3.7	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	1.8%	1.84	2.95	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	3	15	56	15	5	1	75%	3.7	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	1.8%	1.84	2.96	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	13	13	55	224	62	21	5	100%	4.2	21.3%	9.6%	11.7%	3.5%	3.27	4.45	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	13	13	55	224	62	21	5	100%	4.2	21.3%	9.6%	11.7%	3.5%	3.27	4.45	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	CHC	2	2	5	24	8	5	0	100%	2.4	33.3%	20.8%	12.5%	0.0%	7.71	2.92	—
2026	26	A RAW	CHC	2	2	8	29	9	1	0	100%	4.0	31.0%	3.4%	27.6%	0.0%	2.25	0.92	—
2026	26	AA RAW	CHC	9	9	42	171	45	15	5	100%	4.7	26.3%	8.8%	17.5%	2.9%	2.98	3.59	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CHC	1	1	6	25	6	2	1	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.0%	13.9%	3.0%	4.32	4.32	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	61	249	68	23	6	—	—	27.2%	9.3%	17.9%	2.3%	3.37	4.44	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	69	291	67	27	9	100%	5.8	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	3.0%	4.34	4.35	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	67	282	64	26	9	100%	6.1	22.8%	9.3%	13.6%	3.1%	4.40	4.43	+0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	64	270	61	26	9	100%	5.8	22.6%	9.5%	13.1%	3.3%	4.50	4.56	+0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	CHC	4	4	26	110	25	10	3	100%	6.5	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	2.9%	4.28	4.29	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	40	169	39	16	5	100%	5.7	22.8%	9.3%	13.6%	3.0%	4.34	4.37	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	45	190	43	18	6	100%	5.6	22.6%	9.5%	13.1%	3.1%	4.43	4.49	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	19	111	469	107	44	14	100%	5.8	22.8%	9.3%	13.5%	3.0%	4.36	4.02	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	193	79	25	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.3%	13.5%	3.0%	4.36	4.02	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		43	37	163	657	156	65	16	86%	3.8	23.7%	9.9%	13.8%	2.4%	3.15	3.69	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	45	200	806	191	79	20	86%	3.8	23.7%	9.9%	13.8%	2.4%	3.15	3.69	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brody McCullough (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	22.9%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.44	22.8%	13.5%	200	+0.12	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	79
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	78
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	77
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	77
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	77
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	77
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	76
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	75
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	75
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	74
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	74
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	74
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.44	15.8%	9.4%	113	+1.68	2.78	181	74
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	74
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	74
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	73
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	73
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	73
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	22.8%	9.2%	1.19	4.39
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58