Brody McCullough
P
South Bend Cubs
+0.9
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.9 · 2027
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%14.0%
IP86
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2027
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 5 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 12 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.29 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 21 | 21 | 86 | 351 | 108 | 31 | 6 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 2.1% | 3.44 | 3.60 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 4 | 3 | 15 | 56 | 15 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.84 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 85 | 34 | 11 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 88 | 35 | 11 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 90 | 382 | 88 | 35 | 12 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 85 | 34 | 11 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.38 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 82 | 33 | 11 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.44 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 78 | 32 | 11 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 81 | 29 | 11 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 4.33 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 76 | 28 | 11 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.41 | 4.43 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 71 | 27 | 11 | 23.5% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 66 | 27 | 10 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.59 | 4.66 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 64 | 268 | 61 | 25 | 10 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 4.71 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 24 | 108 | 433 | 108 | 43 | 8 | 24.9% | 10.0% | 1.9% | 3.08 | 3.31 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 44 | 200 | 802 | 200 | 80 | 15 | 24.9% | 10.0% | 1.9% | 3.08 | 3.31 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brody McCullough (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.35 | 23.0% | 13.9% | 268 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Danny Farquhar R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 87 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 86 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 86 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 86 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 86 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 85 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.16 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 3.6% | .317 | 3.35 | 22.2% | 15.7% | 50 | -0.81 | 3.35 | 394 | 84 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 83 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.24 | 21.9% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .263 | 5.58 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 85 | +2.34 | 2.92 | 367 | 83 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 83 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 83 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.22 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .330 | 4.61 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 110 | +1.39 | 3.22 | 221 | 83 |
| Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.55 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.15 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.60 | 3.55 | 244 | 82 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 420 | 81 |
| Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 81 |
| Richard Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.38 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.40 | 26.2% | 19.8% | 205 | +0.02 | 2.19 | 545 | 80 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 80 |
| Kutter Crawford R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.40 | 21.9% | 7.7% | 4.0% | .316 | 4.25 | 24.1% | 17.4% | 313 | -0.15 | 3.37 | 741 | 80 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 80 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .271 | 6.98 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 44 | +2.91 | 2.94 | 385 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $9M | $18M | +$9M | ||