Brody McCullough

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	21	21	86	3.44	2.58	30.8%	8.8%	—	K 23.1% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.58
2024	24	MIX2 levels	4	3	15	1.84	2.96	26.8%	8.9%	—	K 26.8% · BB 8.9% · FIP 2.95
2026	26	MIX3 levels	13	13	55	3.27	3.17	27.7%	9.4%	—	K 21.3% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.45
2027PROJ	27	MLBCHC	1	1	1	4.43	4.43	21.7%	8.6%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCHC	4	4	21	4.47	4.51	21.8%	8.8%	0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBCHC	5	5	29	4.56	4.62	21.6%	9.1%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsErik Hiljus (age 28) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Austin Bergner (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%21.7%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	7	26	12	2	0	0%	1.4	46.2%	7.7%	38.5%	0.0%	1.29	0.18	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	7	26	12	2	0	0%	1.4	46.2%	7.7%	38.5%	0.0%	1.29	0.53	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	86	351	108	31	6	100%	4.1	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	2.1%	3.44	3.58	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	86	351	108	31	6	100%	4.1	30.8%	8.8%	21.9%	1.7%	3.44	2.58	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	15	56	15	5	1	75%	3.7	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	1.8%	1.84	2.95	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	15	56	15	5	1	75%	3.7	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	1.8%	1.84	2.95	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	3	15	56	15	5	1	75%	3.7	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	1.8%	1.84	2.96	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	55	224	62	21	5	100%	4.2	21.3%	9.6%	11.7%	3.5%	3.27	4.45	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	55	224	62	21	5	100%	4.2	21.3%	9.6%	11.7%	3.5%	3.27	4.45	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	55	224	62	21	5	100%	4.2	27.7%	9.4%	18.3%	2.2%	3.27	3.17	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CHC	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	21.7%	8.6%	13.1%	3.1%	4.43	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	57	242	53	21	8	100%	5.7	21.8%	8.8%	12.9%	3.2%	4.47	4.51	+0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	53	223	48	20	7	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.1%	12.6%	3.3%	4.56	4.62	+0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	4	4	21	89	19	8	3	100%	5.2	21.8%	8.8%	12.9%	3.2%	4.47	4.51	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	5	5	29	122	27	11	4	100%	5.8	21.6%	9.1%	12.6%	3.3%	4.56	4.62	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	51	215	47	19	7	100%	6.4	21.7%	9.0%	12.7%	3.3%	4.52	4.19	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	75	28	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.0%	12.7%	3.3%	4.52	4.19	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		43	37	163	657	156	65	16	86%	3.8	23.7%	9.9%	13.8%	2.4%	3.15	3.69	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	45	200	806	191	79	20	86%	3.8	23.7%	9.9%	13.8%	2.4%	3.15	3.69	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 42 IPFIP 3.59 → 4.45 (+0.85)K% 26.3% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.810	21.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.77%	—	×1.100	9.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.92%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.51%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.59 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 8 IPFIP 0.92 → 1.68 (+0.76)K% 31.0% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.03%	—	×0.740	22.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×1.180	4.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.92 → 1.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Cubs · 5 IPFIP 2.92 → 4.48 (+1.56)K% 33.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.680	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.83%	—	×1.250	26.04%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 11 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.26 (+0.58)K% 20.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.770	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.150	11.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.909	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 50 IPFIP 1.86 → 3.18 (+1.32)K% 37.6% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.56%	—	×0.740	27.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.63%	—	×1.180	10.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷0.957	×1.300	2.07%

Result: FIP 1.86 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 36 IPFIP 3.46 → 4.11 (+0.65)K% 22.1% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.08%	—	×0.770	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.150	10.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷1.197	×1.250	2.03%

Result: FIP 3.46 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brody McCullough (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.56	21.7%	12.8%	110	+0.13	—	—	—
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	81
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	79
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	77
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	77
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	75
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	75
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	75
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	75
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	74
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	74
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	74
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	73
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	73
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	73
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	72
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	72
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	71
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	70
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	70
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	21.7%	8.8%	1.24	4.48
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*