Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 15 | 74 | 308 | 75 | 28 | 3 | 88% | 4.4 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | 2.68 | 3.52 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 15 | 74 | 308 | 75 | 28 | 3 | 88% | 4.4 | 24.4% | 9.1% | 15.3% | 1.0% | 2.68 | 2.74 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 16 | 83 | 361 | 104 | 46 | 9 | 55% | 2.9 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 4.46 | 4.11 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 16 | 83 | 361 | 104 | 46 | 9 | 55% | 2.9 | 28.8% | 12.7% | 16.1% | 2.5% | 4.46 | 3.67 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 25 | 0 | 47 | 187 | 53 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.9 | 26.0% | 10.6% | 15.4% | 1.6% | 4.02 | 3.12 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | NYM | 33 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 34 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | NYM | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 34 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 81 | 332 | 87 | 37 | 9 | — | — | 26.4% | 11.0% | 15.4% | 2.6% | 4.11 | 3.58 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 47 | 197 | 87 | 37 | 9 | — | — | 44.5% | 18.6% | 25.9% | 4.5% | 7.16 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 65 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 60 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 62 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 57 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 155 | 0 | 169 | 714 | 166 | 91 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.55 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 196 | 108 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 31 | 204 | 856 | 195 | 96 | 17 | 44% | 2.9 | 22.7% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 2.0% | 3.71 | 3.68 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 70 | 30 | 200 | 841 | 191 | 95 | 16 | 44% | 2.9 | 22.7% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 2.0% | 3.71 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonathan Pintaro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 23.3% | 13.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.95 | 23.1% | 10.2% | 128 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.60 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.16 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.44 | 2.16 | 186 | 69 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 64 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 63 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 63 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 62 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 62 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .325 | 3.13 | 23.4% | 16.2% | 191 | -1.32 | 2.37 | 363 | 61 |
| Derek Law R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.30 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 2.8% | .306 | 3.27 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 110 | -1.03 | 2.50 | 520 | 61 |
| David Lebron R 2025 · 5.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.07 | 26.7% | 14.7% | 4.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 144 | 61 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 60 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 60 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 60 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | .329 | 3.99 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 157 | -1.10 | 3.39 | 382 | 60 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 25.6% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 272 | 59 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 59 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 59 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 59 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 59 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 59 |
| Mayckol Guaipe R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.74 | 26.0% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .432 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.88 | 136 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 23.1% | 13.1% | 1.20 | 4.85 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |