Peyton Gray — OGILVIE

Peyton Gray P Texas Rangers

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 84

ERA3.80

FIP3.80

K%22.6%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%16.0%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p4825.0%

p5923.8%

xwOBA vs

p730.290

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	0	45	192	71	23	5	0%	1.9	29.2%	14.1%	15.1%	3.4%	2.80	4.27	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	0	45	192	71	23	5	0%	1.9	37.0%	12.0%	25.0%	2.6%	2.80	2.92	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	73	307	89	27	8	4%	1.6	21.4%	7.8%	13.5%	3.6%	3.58	4.29	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	73	307	89	27	8	4%	1.6	21.4%	7.8%	13.5%	3.6%	3.58	4.29	—
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	2	73	307	89	27	8	4%	1.6	29.0%	8.8%	20.2%	2.6%	3.58	3.20	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			48	0	55	244	58	13	9	0%	1.1	23.8%	5.3%	18.4%	3.7%	3.93	3.83	+0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	55	0	68	289	73	15	9	0%	1.2	23.8%	5.3%	18.4%	3.4%	3.19	3.65	+0.7
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	55	0	68	289	73	15	9	0%	1.2	23.8%	5.3%	18.4%	3.4%	3.19	3.65	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	TEX	7	0	13	45	15	2	0	0%	1.8	33.3%	4.4%	28.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.85	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	TEX	48	0	55	244	58	13	9	0%	1.1	23.8%	5.3%	18.4%	3.7%	3.93	3.79	+0.5
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	TEX	48	0	55	244	58	13	9	0%	1.1	23.8%	5.3%	18.4%	3.7%	3.93	3.79	+0.5
ROS	31	MLB MLE	TEX	2	0	3	11	2	1	0	0%	1.3	22.6%	6.6%	16.0%	3.2%	3.80	3.80	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	TEX	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	22.6%	6.6%	16.0%	3.2%	3.80	3.80	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	70	300	75	16	9	—	—	25.2%	5.2%	19.9%	3.1%	3.21	3.66	+0.8
FULL	31	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	58	243	75	16	9	—	—	31.0%	6.5%	24.6%	3.8%	3.92	3.41	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TEX	57	0	60	254	56	18	9	0%	1.1	22.1%	7.2%	14.8%	3.6%	4.41	4.50	+0.0
2028	33	MLB MLE	TEX	53	0	55	233	50	18	9	0%	1.0	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	3.8%	4.60	4.74	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	TEX	54	0	57	241	53	17	9	0%	1.1	22.1%	7.2%	14.8%	3.6%	4.41	4.50	+0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	TEX	50	0	52	220	48	17	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	3.8%	4.60	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	0	167	718	162	48	26	0%	1.1	22.5%	6.8%	15.8%	3.7%	4.30	4.08	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	859	194	57	31	0%	1.1	22.5%	6.8%	15.8%	3.7%	4.30	4.08	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		124	2	186	788	190	67	28	2%	1.5	24.2%	8.4%	15.7%	3.5%	3.25	4.05	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	2	200	849	205	72	30	2%	1.5	24.2%	8.4%	15.7%	3.5%	3.25	4.05	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	21.3%	7.4%	3.2%	—	4.61	21.9%	14.4%	115	+0.22	—	—	—
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	90
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	87
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	86
Pedro Beato R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.1%	6.4%	2.9%	.266	3.49	16.8%	9.3%	29	-0.22	3.47	295	84
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	84
Carlos Torres R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	19.8%	4.9%	2.1%	.315	3.67	20.8%	12.4%	206	+0.48	2.89	326	83
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	83
Fernando Salas R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.8%	6.1%	4.1%	.256	3.90	20.1%	14.5%	151	-0.39	2.71	288	83
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	82
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	80
Matt Albers R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	18.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.252	4.45	20.4%	13.3%	147	+1.26	3.15	244	80
Carlos Villanueva R 2015 · 3.62 FIP	31	SU	3.62	22.0%	7.6%	2.6%	.259	4.73	19.0%	15.9%	74	+1.11	3.62	135	80
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	80
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	80
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	79
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	79
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	79
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	78
Gerardo Sanchez R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	30	SU	3.58	20.5%	5.4%	2.8%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	137	78
Jim Johnson R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	32	SU	3.34	17.2%	6.2%	1.7%	.330	3.63	22.0%	14.1%	185	+0.29	2.56	251	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	21.7%	7.5%	1.37	4.46
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19