Peyton Gray

P Texas Rangers

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	26	MIX3 levels	24	0	45	2.80	2.92	37.0%	12.0%	—	K 29.2% · BB 14.1% · FIP 4.27
2025	30	MIX2 levels	45	2	73	3.58	3.20	29.0%	8.8%	—	K 22.2% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.23
2026	31	MIX2 levels	56	0	69	3.15	3.32	25.5%	5.4%	1.0	K 24.1% · BB 5.6% · FIP 3.62
2027PROJ	32	MLBTEX	43	0	45	3.94	4.07	22.7%	5.9%	0.3
2028PROJ84% MLB	33	MLBTEX	35	0	37	4.21	4.37	21.9%	6.6%	0.1
2029PROJ79% MLB	34	MLBTEX	24	0	25	4.49	4.67	21.1%	7.3%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs71

K%60

FB Velo30

Form4.86 ERA (proj 3.94) · K 23.4% (proj 22.7%) · BB 6.5% (proj 5.9%) · last 90d · 17 IP through Oct 27

CompsDale Thayer (age 32) · Tony Barnette (age 32) · Mark Serrano (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10496vR 88

ERA3.94

FIP4.07

K%22.7%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%16.8%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p5125.4%

p6024.1%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	0	45	192	71	23	5	0%	1.9	29.2%	14.1%	15.1%	3.4%	2.80	4.27	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	0	45	192	71	23	5	0%	1.9	37.0%	12.0%	25.0%	2.6%	2.80	2.92	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	73	307	89	27	8	4%	1.6	22.2%	7.8%	14.3%	3.6%	3.58	4.23	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	73	307	89	27	8	4%	1.6	22.2%	7.8%	14.3%	3.6%	3.58	4.23	—
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	2	73	307	89	27	8	4%	1.6	29.0%	8.8%	20.2%	2.6%	3.58	3.20	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	69	294	75	16	9	0%	1.2	24.1%	5.6%	18.5%	3.4%	3.15	3.62	+0.8
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	69	294	75	16	9	0%	1.2	24.1%	5.6%	18.5%	3.4%	3.15	3.62	+0.8
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	69	294	75	16	9	0%	1.2	25.5%	5.4%	20.1%	3.1%	3.15	3.32	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			49	0	56	249	60	14	9	0%	1.1	24.1%	5.6%	18.5%	3.6%	3.86	3.80	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	TEX	43	0	45	190	43	11	6	0%	1.0	22.7%	5.9%	16.8%	3.2%	3.94	4.07	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	TEX	42	0	44	185	41	12	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	6.6%	15.3%	3.5%	4.21	4.37	+0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	TEX	30	0	31	131	28	10	5	0%	1.0	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	3.7%	4.49	4.67	-0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	TEX	35	0	37	156	34	10	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	6.6%	15.3%	3.5%	4.21	4.37	+0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	TEX	24	0	25	106	22	8	4	0%	1.0	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	3.7%	4.49	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	0	117	508	116	32	18	0%	1.1	22.8%	6.3%	16.5%	3.6%	4.10	3.94	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		183	0	200	866	198	55	31	0%	1.1	22.8%	6.3%	16.5%	3.6%	4.10	3.94	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		125	2	187	793	195	68	28	2%	1.5	24.6%	8.5%	16.0%	3.5%	3.23	4.01	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	2	200	850	209	72	30	2%	1.5	24.6%	8.5%	16.0%	3.5%	3.23	4.01	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 13 IPFIP 0.85 → 1.19 (+0.34)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.44%	—	×0.900	4.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.85 → 1.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 61 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.23 (+0.53)K% 25.8% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.76%	—	×0.860	22.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.71%	—	×0.900	7.84%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.913	×1.100	3.65%

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 12 IPFIP 0.15 → 1.06 (+0.90)K% 48.8% → 39.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	48.84%	—	×0.810	39.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×1.100	10.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 0.15 → 1.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 29 IPFIP 2.28 → 3.51 (+1.23)K% 39.8% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.83%	—	×0.770	30.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.71%	—	×1.150	14.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.013	×1.250	2.09%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.28 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 14 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.60 (+1.30)K% 32.8% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.84%	—	×0.810	26.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.94%	—	×1.100	13.13%
HR / BF /BF	4.48%	÷0.957	×1.200	5.61%

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	22.7%	5.9%	3.2%	—	4.49	21.6%	14.7%	75	+0.42	—	—	—
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	85
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	83
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	82
Jean Machi R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	20.5%	6.0%	2.2%	.225	4.34	17.8%	10.6%	186	+1.01	2.16	306	81
Jared Burton R 2013 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	21.7%	6.0%	2.1%	.279	3.92	18.4%	10.0%	78	+0.72	3.09	367	79
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	79
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	78
Miguel Socolovich R 2018 · 3.55 FIP	32	SU	3.55	20.8%	5.6%	2.7%	.338	3.55	18.4%	13.7%	42	+0.00	2.65	299	78
Gerardo Sanchez R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	30	SU	3.58	20.5%	5.4%	2.8%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	137	78
Gregory Infante R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	31	SU	4.07	22.0%	4.6%	4.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	230	78
Deolis Guerra R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	32	SU	3.89	23.0%	7.4%	3.3%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	2.53	364	78
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	77
Frank Herrmann R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	32	SU	4.42	21.5%	4.8%	4.6%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	219	77
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	77
George Kontos R 2017 · 3.71 FIP	32	SU	3.71	25.2%	6.5%	3.5%	.287	4.41	14.7%	8.6%	97	+0.70	2.56	421	77
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	77
Santiago Casilla R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	32	SU	3.98	20.2%	6.6%	3.2%	.246	3.23	21.6%	13.7%	166	-0.75	2.76	647	76
Jim Miller R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	18.8%	4.1%	3.5%	.275	5.43	20.4%	6.3%	17	+1.48	3.95	140	76
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.51	246	75
Chris Martin R 2018 · 3.04 FIP	32	SU	3.04	20.9%	1.7%	2.7%	.311	2.92	25.7%	23.1%	117	-0.12	1.76	431	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	47	22.7%	6.6%	1.35	4.07
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*