Peyton Gray — OGILVIE

Peyton Gray P Round Rock Express

+0.4 WAR

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%23.0%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.8%

IP57

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2026

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	26	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	24	0	45	192	71	23	5	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	2.80	4.26	+0.4
2025	30	AAA	Round Rock Express	45	2	73	307	89	27	8	22.7%	9.1%	3.7%	3.58	4.38	+0.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	AAA	Round Rock Express	6	0	10	35	12	2	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
ROS	31	MLB	TEX	57	—	57	239	55	20	8	23.0%	8.5%	3.2%	4.40	4.40	+0.4
2026 Total	31	MLB	TEX	—	—	66	274	67	22	8	24.4%	8.2%	2.8%	3.76	3.76	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	TEX	54	—	54	230	52	20	8	22.8%	8.7%	3.3%	4.44	4.48	+0.3
2028	33	MLB	TEX	52	—	52	220	49	20	7	22.5%	8.9%	3.4%	4.51	4.56	+0.2
2029	34	MLB	TEX	49	—	49	209	46	19	7	22.2%	9.2%	3.5%	4.60	4.66	+0.2
2030	35	MLB	TEX	47	—	47	197	43	18	7	21.8%	9.4%	3.5%	4.70	4.77	+0.1
2031	36	MLB	TEX	44	—	44	184	39	18	7	21.4%	9.6%	3.7%	4.82	4.91	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			75	2	128	534	138	57	18	25.8%	10.7%	3.3%	3.03	4.11	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—			117	3	200	837	216	89	28	25.8%	10.7%	3.3%	3.03	4.11	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	23.0%	8.5%	3.2%	—	4.56	22.5%	13.6%	156	+0.16	—	—	—
Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	92
Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	88
Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	87
Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	87
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	85
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	31	SW	3.39	25.5%	9.1%	2.4%	.254	3.70	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.31	2.80	410	85
Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	84
Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	31	SW	3.69	21.1%	6.4%	2.9%	.266	3.49	16.8%	9.3%	29	-0.20	3.46	295	84
Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	31	SU	4.83	23.8%	9.4%	4.6%	.283	4.53	22.0%	13.8%	96	-0.30	2.93	176	83
Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	31	SW	4.09	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.53	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	403	82
Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP	31	SW	5.21	19.1%	9.4%	4.6%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.26	3.80	132	82
Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP	31	SW	3.35	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	210	82
Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP	33	SU	4.26	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.44	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.82	1.94	112	82
Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	31	SU	4.63	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	81
Fernando Salas R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	31	SW	4.17	21.8%	6.1%	3.9%	.256	3.82	20.1%	14.5%	151	-0.35	2.65	288	80
Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	21.9%	6.4%	2.9%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.62	3.10	120	80
Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.62 FIP	30	SW	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	79
Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP	32	SW	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.18	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.27	2.48	147	79
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP	33	SW	4.47	26.2%	11.2%	3.9%	.263	3.98	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.49	3.98	104	79
Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	31	SW	3.75	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.96	3.75	521	79

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.