Shintaro Fujinami

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 33 RHP 6'6" / 180 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	29	MLBBAL	64	7	79	7.18	4.15	23.2%	12.3%	0.4
2024	30	MIX4 levels	33	1	36	5.94	4.12	27.5%	20.6%	—	K 22.1% · BB 20.1% · FIP 4.55
2025	31	AAASEA	21	0	19	5.79	4.71	25.3%	27.4%	—	K 21.7% · BB 24.6% · FIP 4.39
2026	32	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	33	MLBSEA	5	0	5	4.68	4.53	27.0%	14.1%	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBSEA	2	0	2	4.75	4.81	25.8%	14.1%	-0.0
2029PROJMLE	35	MLBSEA	—	—	0	4.95	5.11	24.6%	14.2%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo90

K%55

xwOBA vs31

CompsHuascar Brazobán (age 33) · Jon Edwards (age 31) · Jose Manuel Lopez (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 103

ERA4.68

FIP4.53

K%27.0%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%13.0%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.4

Whiff%

p8130.1%

p5523.2%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	64	7	79	357	83	44	9	11%	1.2	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	2.5%	7.18	4.09	+0.4
2023	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	64	7	79	357	83	44	9	11%	1.2	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	2.5%	7.18	4.15	+0.4
2024	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	33	1	36	160	44	33	2	3%	1.1	22.1%	20.1%	2.0%	1.4%	5.94	4.55	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	33	1	36	160	44	33	2	3%	1.1	22.1%	20.1%	2.0%	1.4%	5.94	4.55	—
2024	30	MIX RAW	4 levels	33	1	36	160	44	33	2	3%	1.1	27.5%	20.6%	6.9%	1.2%	5.94	4.12	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	21	0	19	95	24	26	0	0%	0.9	21.7%	24.6%	-2.9%	0.0%	5.79	4.39	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	21	0	19	95	24	26	0	0%	0.9	21.7%	24.6%	-2.9%	0.0%	5.79	4.39	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	21	0	19	95	24	26	0	0%	0.9	25.3%	27.4%	-2.1%	0.0%	5.79	4.71	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			64	7	79	357	83	44	9	11%	1.2	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	2.5%	7.18	4.15	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	SEA	5	0	5	21	6	3	1	0%	1.0	27.0%	14.1%	13.0%	2.8%	4.68	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	SEA	38	0	40	170	44	24	5	0%	1.1	25.8%	14.1%	11.7%	3.1%	4.75	4.81	-0.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	SEA	30	0	31	131	32	19	5	0%	1.0	24.6%	14.2%	10.4%	3.5%	4.95	5.11	-0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	SEA	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	25.8%	14.1%	11.7%	3.1%	4.75	4.81	-0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.6%	14.2%	10.4%	3.5%	4.95	5.11	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	7	82	368	86	45	9	11%	1.2	23.3%	12.4%	10.9%	2.5%	7.10	4.09	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		163	17	200	902	211	110	22	11%	1.2	23.3%	12.4%	10.9%	2.5%	7.10	4.09	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		118	8	134	612	139	100	11	7%	1.1	22.7%	16.3%	6.4%	1.8%	6.65	4.26	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		176	12	200	913	207	149	17	7%	1.1	22.7%	16.3%	6.4%	1.8%	6.65	4.26	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 19 IPFIP 4.43 → 4.39 (−0.05)K% 25.3% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.26%	—	×0.860	21.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	27.37%	—	×0.900	24.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.204	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).

Result: FIP 4.43 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 32 IPFIP 4.50 → 4.55 (+0.05)K% 25.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.68%	—	×0.860	22.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.30%	—	×0.900	20.07%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.059	×1.100	1.40%

Result: FIP 4.50 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shintaro Fujinami (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	27.0%	14.1%	2.8%	—	4.94	25.3%	11.1%	71	+0.41	—	—	—
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	67
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	67
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	63
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	62
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	62
Jay Jackson R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	33	SU	4.14	31.1%	13.3%	3.6%	.255	4.48	26.4%	20.6%	105	+0.34	2.36	261	61
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	319	61
Dustin Molleken R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	32	SU	3.38	24.3%	12.4%	1.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	129	61
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	60
Chad Fox R 2003 · 3.70 FIP	32	SU	3.70	23.2%	13.6%	1.5%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	194	60
Jason Bulger R 2010 · 4.36 FIP	31	SU	4.36	22.5%	13.5%	2.6%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	106	60
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	59
Arquimedes Caminero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	32	SU	4.62	18.6%	11.1%	3.1%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	186	59
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.7%	10.4%	2.0%	.255	4.41	24.1%	13.8%	97	+0.80	3.34	335	58
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	58
Jake Sanchez R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	33	SU	4.70	20.3%	10.6%	3.6%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	361	57
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	57
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	57
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	287	56
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	24.9%	13.5%	1.11	5.70
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*