Austin Bergner — OGILVIE

Austin Bergner P Round Rock Express

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%19.6%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	4	0	6	24	7	2	1	0%	1.4	29.2%	8.3%	20.8%	4.2%	6.35	3.98	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	4	0	6	24	7	2	1	0%	1.4	29.2%	8.3%	20.8%	4.2%	6.35	3.98	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	10	83	349	110	33	11	37%	3.1	24.0%	10.9%	13.0%	4.6%	3.35	4.99	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	10	83	349	110	33	11	37%	3.1	31.5%	9.5%	22.1%	3.2%	3.35	3.36	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	119	490	121	47	17	96%	4.4	20.4%	10.4%	10.0%	4.3%	3.47	5.03	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	119	490	121	47	17	96%	4.4	24.7%	9.6%	15.1%	3.5%	3.47	4.11	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	6	74	338	94	41	10	16%	2.0	22.7%	12.5%	10.3%	3.5%	5.62	4.66	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	6	74	338	94	41	10	16%	2.0	22.7%	12.5%	10.3%	3.5%	5.62	4.66	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	6	74	338	94	41	10	16%	2.0	27.8%	12.1%	15.7%	3.0%	5.62	3.98	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	90	394	108	48	11	96%	3.9	21.9%	12.5%	9.3%	3.7%	4.72	4.86	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	90	394	108	48	11	96%	3.9	21.9%	12.5%	9.3%	3.7%	4.72	4.86	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	22	90	394	108	48	11	96%	3.9	27.4%	12.2%	15.2%	2.8%	4.72	3.89	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	97	409	95	43	11	56%	3.6	19.1%	11.3%	7.9%	2.1%	3.43	4.06	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	97	409	95	43	11	56%	3.6	19.1%	11.3%	7.9%	2.1%	3.43	4.06	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	15	97	409	95	43	11	56%	3.6	23.2%	10.5%	12.7%	2.7%	3.43	3.95	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	9	5	20	100	17	17	4	56%	2.2	15.5%	12.0%	3.5%	5.9%	5.85	6.53	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	9	5	20	100	17	17	4	56%	2.2	15.5%	12.0%	3.5%	5.9%	5.85	6.53	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AA RAW	TEX	2	2	4	25	3	7	0	100%	2.1	12.0%	28.0%	-16.0%	0.0%	8.31	5.63	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	TEX	7	3	16	75	14	10	4	43%	2.2	18.7%	13.3%	5.3%	5.3%	5.17	6.14	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	TEX	1	1	6	24	5	3	1	100%	5.8	19.6%	12.3%	7.3%	2.9%	4.98	4.98	-0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	26	124	22	20	5	—	—	17.5%	16.1%	1.4%	3.8%	5.65	6.18	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	64	272	53	33	8	100%	5.9	19.6%	12.2%	7.4%	3.1%	5.02	5.09	-0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	60	254	49	31	8	100%	6.0	19.5%	12.4%	7.1%	3.3%	5.12	5.23	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	TEX	4	4	24	101	20	12	3	100%	6.0	19.6%	12.2%	7.4%	3.1%	5.02	5.09	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	33	139	27	17	5	100%	5.5	19.5%	12.4%	7.1%	3.3%	5.12	5.23	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	57	242	47	30	8	100%	5.7	19.6%	12.3%	7.2%	3.2%	5.08	4.79	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	164	104	28	100%	6.0	19.6%	12.3%	7.2%	3.2%	5.08	4.79	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		154	84	489	2104	447	241	79	55%	3.2	21.3%	11.4%	9.8%	3.7%	4.13	4.80	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	34	200	861	183	98	32	55%	3.2	21.3%	11.4%	9.8%	3.7%	4.13	4.80	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Bergner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	19.6%	12.3%	2.9%	—	5.16	19.6%	7.3%	125	+0.18	—	—	—
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	77
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	74
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	74
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	73
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	73
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	73
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	71
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	71
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	71
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	29	SW	3.97	15.3%	8.5%	2.0%	.316	3.74	17.1%	8.5%	348	-0.23	3.13	593	71
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	70
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	247	70
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	70
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	69
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	69
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	69
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	69
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	69
Trevor Cahill R 2017 · 5.13 FIP	29	SP-	5.13	22.8%	11.5%	4.5%	.321	4.36	21.3%	11.7%	251	-0.77	3.37	556	69
Burch Smith R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	29	SW	3.96	22.6%	12.3%	2.2%	.271	4.19	14.9%	9.0%	43	+0.23	3.50	382	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	19.6%	12.3%	1.21	5.04
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64