Austin Bergner
P
Round Rock Express
Age 29
RHP
6'5" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 116
ERA5.10
FIP5.10
K%19.8%
BB%12.9%
K-BB%7.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | 4 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.2% | 8.3% | 20.8% | 4.2% | 6.35 | 3.98 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | 4 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.2% | 8.3% | 20.8% | 4.2% | 6.35 | 3.98 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 10 | 83 | 349 | 110 | 33 | 11 | 37% | 3.1 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 5.5% | 3.35 | 5.47 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 10 | 83 | 349 | 110 | 33 | 11 | 37% | 3.1 | 31.5% | 9.5% | 22.1% | 3.2% | 3.35 | 3.36 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 119 | 490 | 121 | 47 | 17 | 96% | 4.4 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 3.47 | 5.17 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 119 | 490 | 121 | 47 | 17 | 96% | 4.4 | 24.7% | 9.6% | 15.1% | 3.5% | 3.47 | 4.11 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 6 | 74 | 338 | 94 | 41 | 10 | 16% | 2.0 | 23.2% | 13.1% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 5.62 | 4.75 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 6 | 74 | 338 | 94 | 41 | 10 | 16% | 2.0 | 27.8% | 12.1% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 5.62 | 3.98 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 22 | 90 | 394 | 108 | 48 | 11 | 96% | 3.9 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 4.72 | 5.40 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 22 | 90 | 394 | 108 | 48 | 11 | 96% | 3.9 | 27.4% | 12.2% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 4.72 | 3.89 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 15 | 97 | 409 | 95 | 43 | 11 | 56% | 3.6 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 2.0% | 3.43 | 4.00 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 15 | 97 | 409 | 95 | 43 | 11 | 56% | 3.6 | 23.2% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 3.43 | 3.95 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 9 | 5 | 20 | 100 | 17 | 17 | 4 | 56% | 2.2 | 16.4% | 14.0% | 2.4% | 5.9% | 5.85 | 6.71 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 54 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.8% | 12.9% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TEX | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.8% | 12.9% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 5.10 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 85 | 374 | 71 | 52 | 12 | — | — | 19.1% | 14.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 5.28 | 5.48 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 19.8% | 12.9% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 64 | 272 | 54 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 5.13 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 10 | 60 | 254 | 50 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 12.9% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 5.23 | 5.34 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 5.13 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.7% | 12.9% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 5.23 | 5.34 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 53 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 5.18 | 4.88 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 167 | 107 | 28 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 5.18 | 4.88 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 154 | 84 | 489 | 2104 | 452 | 249 | 86 | 55% | 3.2 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 4.13 | 5.03 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 34 | 200 | 861 | 185 | 102 | 35 | 55% | 3.2 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 4.13 | 5.03 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Bergner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.10 | 19.8% | 12.9% | 3.0% | — | 5.27 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 125 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 76 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.28 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .316 | 3.71 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 348 | -0.57 | 3.16 | 593 | 73 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 73 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 73 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 72 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 17.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 138 | 72 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 7.46 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 39 | +2.92 | 4.54 | 224 | 72 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 71 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.76 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | 247 | 71 |
| Jacob Turner R 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 70 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 70 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.39 | 18.4% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 622 | 70 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.94 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .271 | 4.11 | 14.9% | 9.0% | 43 | +0.17 | 3.39 | 382 | 70 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 69 |
| Michael Blazek R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.92 | 16.0% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 5.85 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 39 | +1.93 | 3.05 | 221 | 69 |
| Jose A. Flores R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 13.7% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 237 | 69 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 5.33 | 13.2% | 0.6% | 66 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 254 | 69 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.41 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 210 | 68 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 68 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 64 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 1.25 | 5.15 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |