Austin Bergner
P
Round Rock Express
+0.3
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'5" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2028
ERA4.73
FIP4.73
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.4%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%9.9%
IP84
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4545
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | 4 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.35 | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 27 | 10 | 83 | 349 | 110 | 33 | 11 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 4.5% | 3.35 | 4.92 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 27 | 26 | 119 | 490 | 121 | 47 | 17 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 4.3% | 3.47 | 5.04 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 37 | 6 | 74 | 338 | 94 | 41 | 10 | 23.2% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 5.62 | 4.69 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 23 | 22 | 90 | 394 | 108 | 48 | 11 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 3.8% | 4.72 | 5.00 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 27 | 15 | 97 | 409 | 95 | 43 | 11 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 2.1% | 3.43 | 4.04 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TEX | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 74 | 43 | 10 | 20.8% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.86 | 4.86 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 88 | 372 | 78 | 45 | 12 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.64 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 15 | 15 | 82 | 346 | 71 | 41 | 10 | 20.7% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.83 | 4.86 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 75 | 36 | 10 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.62 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 71 | 35 | 10 | 22.3% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.69 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 67 | 34 | 10 | 22.0% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.78 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 69 | 290 | 63 | 32 | 10 | 21.7% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 58 | 31 | 9 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 53 | 30 | 9 | 20.8% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 146 | 80 | 473 | 2020 | 439 | 237 | 74 | 21.7% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 4.06 | 4.77 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 34 | 200 | 855 | 186 | 100 | 31 | 21.7% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 4.06 | 4.77 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Bergner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.86 | 20.8% | 12.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.73 | 21.8% | 10.7% | 237 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 83 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2028 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 83 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 83 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 81 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 81 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.01 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.3% | .321 | 4.38 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.63 | 3.40 | 556 | 79 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.45 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.05 | 4.33 | 221 | 79 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.09 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.04 | 4.09 | 165 | 78 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 78 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.00 | 15.4% | 11.7% | 3.1% | .278 | 5.36 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 102 | +0.36 | 4.13 | 265 | 77 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 77 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 328 | 77 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 76 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.00 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .316 | 3.75 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 348 | -0.25 | 3.14 | 593 | 76 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.07 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 3.58 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 30 | -0.49 | 3.58 | 139 | 76 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.46 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.30 | 4.16 | 325 | 75 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.92 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .285 | 3.84 | 18.0% | 11.4% | 179 | -0.08 | 3.45 | 315 | 75 |
| Luke Irvine R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 75 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 262 | 75 |
| Taylor Jungmann R 2024 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.7% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 435 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.