Austin Bergner

P Round Rock Express

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX3 levels	23	22	90	4.72	3.89	27.4%	12.2%	—	K 22.2% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.84
2025	28	MIX2 levels	27	15	97	3.43	3.95	23.2%	10.5%	—	K 19.1% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.06
2026	29	MIX2 levels	9	5	20	5.85	6.55	17.0%	17.0%	—	K 16.1% · BB 12.0% · FIP 6.48
2027PROJ	30	MLBTEX	1	1	6	5.22	5.22	18.3%	12.1%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBTEX	3	3	17	5.25	5.33	18.4%	12.2%	0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBTEX	4	4	21	5.36	5.48	18.3%	12.3%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 29) · Jared Fernandez (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%18.3%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%6.2%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	4	0	6	24	7	2	1	0%	1.4	29.2%	8.3%	20.8%	4.2%	6.35	3.98	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	4	0	6	24	7	2	1	0%	1.4	29.2%	8.3%	20.8%	4.2%	6.35	3.98	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	10	83	349	110	33	11	37%	3.1	24.0%	10.9%	13.0%	4.6%	3.35	4.99	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	10	83	349	110	33	11	37%	3.1	31.5%	9.5%	22.1%	3.2%	3.35	3.36	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	119	490	121	47	17	96%	4.4	20.4%	10.4%	10.0%	4.3%	3.47	5.03	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	119	490	121	47	17	96%	4.4	24.7%	9.6%	15.1%	3.5%	3.47	4.11	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	6	74	338	94	41	10	16%	2.0	23.0%	12.5%	10.5%	3.5%	5.62	4.64	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	6	74	338	94	41	10	16%	2.0	27.8%	12.1%	15.7%	3.0%	5.62	3.98	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	90	394	108	48	11	96%	3.9	22.2%	12.5%	9.6%	3.7%	4.72	4.84	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	90	394	108	48	11	96%	3.9	22.2%	12.5%	9.6%	3.7%	4.72	4.84	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	22	90	394	108	48	11	96%	3.9	27.4%	12.2%	15.2%	2.8%	4.72	3.89	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	97	409	95	43	11	56%	3.6	19.1%	11.3%	7.9%	2.1%	3.43	4.06	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	97	409	95	43	11	56%	3.6	19.1%	11.3%	7.9%	2.1%	3.43	4.06	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	15	97	409	95	43	11	56%	3.6	23.2%	10.5%	12.7%	2.7%	3.43	3.95	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	5	20	100	17	17	4	56%	2.2	16.1%	12.0%	4.1%	5.9%	5.85	6.48	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	5	20	100	17	17	4	56%	2.2	16.1%	12.0%	4.1%	5.9%	5.85	6.48	—
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	5	20	100	17	17	4	56%	2.2	17.0%	17.0%	0.0%	4.0%	5.85	6.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TEX	1	1	6	25	5	3	1	100%	6.0	18.3%	12.1%	6.2%	3.2%	5.22	5.22	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	47	197	36	24	7	100%	5.8	18.4%	12.2%	6.2%	3.4%	5.25	5.33	+0.0
2029	32	MLB MLE	TEX	6	6	39	164	30	20	6	100%	6.5	18.3%	12.3%	6.0%	3.6%	5.36	5.48	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	TEX	3	3	17	72	13	9	2	100%	5.7	18.4%	12.2%	6.2%	3.4%	5.25	5.33	+0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	TEX	4	4	21	89	16	11	3	100%	5.2	18.3%	12.3%	6.0%	3.6%	5.36	5.48	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	6	39	163	30	20	6	100%	6.4	18.3%	12.2%	6.1%	3.5%	5.31	5.03	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	155	104	31	100%	6.0	18.3%	12.2%	6.1%	3.5%	5.31	5.03	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		154	84	489	2104	450	241	79	55%	3.2	21.4%	11.4%	10.0%	3.7%	4.13	4.79	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	34	200	861	184	98	32	55%	3.2	21.4%	11.4%	10.0%	3.7%	4.13	4.79	+0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 16 IPFIP 6.14 → 6.48 (+0.34)K% 18.7% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.67%	—	×0.860	16.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×0.900	12.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.33%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.87%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.14 → 6.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 4 IPFIP 5.63 → 6.18 (+0.55)K% 12.0% → 9.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.00%	—	×0.810	9.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	28.00%	—	×1.100	30.80%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.63 → 6.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 91 IPFIP 3.41 → 4.06 (+0.65)K% 23.6% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.62%	—	×0.810	19.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.24%	—	×1.100	11.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.84%	÷1.056	×1.200	2.09%

Result: FIP 3.41 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 6 IPFIP 11.24 → 13.33 (+2.08)K% 17.9% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.86%	—	×0.860	15.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	14.29%	÷0.872	×1.100	18.03%

Result: FIP 11.24 → 13.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 50 IPFIP 3.04 → 4.06 (+1.02)K% 32.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.16%	—	×0.810	26.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.05%	—	×1.100	11.06%
HR / BF /BF	2.51%	÷0.941	×1.200	3.20%

Result: FIP 3.04 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 31 IPFIP 5.09 → 5.79 (+0.69)K% 20.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.25%	—	×0.860	17.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.95%	—	×0.900	14.36%
HR / BF /BF	3.07%	÷0.792	×1.100	4.26%

Result: FIP 5.09 → 5.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 9 IPFIP 2.70 → 4.19 (+1.48)K% 34.4% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.38%	—	×0.770	26.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.150	7.19%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷0.889	×1.250	4.40%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.70 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 51 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.48 (+0.79)K% 27.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.43%	—	×0.810	22.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.50%	—	×1.100	12.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.055	×1.200	3.02%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Bergner (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	18.3%	12.1%	3.2%	—	5.40	18.3%	6.1%	86	+0.18	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	78
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	73
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	73
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	71
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	70
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	70
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	69
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	69
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	68
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	68
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	67
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	67
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	67
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	67
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	67
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	66
Seth Simmons R 2018 · 6.20 FIP	30	SW	6.20	13.3%	10.9%	5.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	251	66
Mark Appel R 2021 · 5.90 FIP	30	SP-	5.90	15.6%	15.6%	3.9%	.260	4.22	18.5%	8.1%	40	-1.68	4.22	363	66
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	66
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	18.3%	12.2%	1.31	5.27
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*