Ben Casparius
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
+0.6
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.9 · 2027
ERA4.30
FIP4.08
xFIP6.07
SIERA5.70
K%22.1%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%13.6%
IP84
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p7496.2
Whiff%
p6527.6%
K%
p4421.3%
xwOBA vs
p620.300
CT (15%)
CH (2%)
SL (25%)
CU (16%)
FB-0.6 (41%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 5 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 10 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 27 | 16 | 90 | 405 | 110 | 46 | 14 | 20.6% | 13.2% | 4.1% | 5.22 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 26 | 21 | 108 | 474 | 120 | 55 | 20 | 20.1% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 5.27 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 24 | 19 | 97 | 415 | 118 | 50 | 6 | 24.0% | 12.9% | 1.9% | 3.25 | 3.75 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51 | 3 | 83 | 353 | 78 | 21 | 9 | 21.3% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 4.55 | 3.25 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.64 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAD | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 24.0% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 42 | 181 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 3.55 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 83 | 32 | 10 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.19 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 79 | 31 | 10 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.27 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 80 | 339 | 74 | 31 | 10 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.36 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 78 | 327 | 77 | 27 | 10 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.19 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 71 | 27 | 10 | 22.8% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 66 | 26 | 9 | 22.1% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.44 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 61 | 25 | 9 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.58 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 55 | 24 | 9 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.73 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 50 | 23 | 9 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 138 | 60 | 388 | 1699 | 368 | 198 | 56 | 21.7% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.55 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 31 | 200 | 876 | 190 | 102 | 29 | 21.7% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.55 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Casparius (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.99 | 24.0% | 8.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.27 | 22.6% | 13.5% | 248 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hudson R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 84 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 81 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 80 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 80 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.37 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .237 | 2.63 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.74 | 2.40 | 362 | 79 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.02 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.3% | .314 | 2.56 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.46 | 1.54 | 521 | 79 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 79 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.38 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.49 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.11 | 3.38 | 173 | 79 |
| Seth Simmons R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.07 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.88 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.81 | 3.07 | 251 | 79 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 78 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 78 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 78 |
| Alan Busenitz R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.14 | 23.2% | 7.5% | 3.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 436 | 77 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 2.83 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.66 | 2.83 | 239 | 77 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.26 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.97 | 2.80 | 155 | 76 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.55 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.15 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.40 | 4.02 | 328 | 76 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 76 |
| Justin Grimm R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.19 | 28.9% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.23 | 25.2% | 13.4% | 170 | +1.04 | 2.87 | 335 | 76 |
| Curtis Partch R 2027 · 2.84 FIP | 28 | SW | 2.84 | 25.9% | 9.9% | 1.2% | .345 | 3.12 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 60 | +0.28 | 2.84 | 124 | 76 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 76 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 1.093 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.8 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $10M | $16M | +$6M | ||