Ryan Jennings

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	12	10	43	3.98	2.63	30.9%	9.6%	—	K 23.4% · BB 11.9% · FIP 3.43
2024	25	MIX2 levels	21	12	61	1.93	2.64	26.7%	9.0%	—	K 20.4% · BB 10.4% · FIP 3.60
2025	26	MIX2 levels	45	0	58	3.72	4.24	29.6%	15.2%	—	K 25.0% · BB 14.7% · FIP 4.93
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBTOR	7	0	7	4.72	4.72	24.6%	12.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ29% MLB	29	MLBTOR	15	0	16	4.76	4.81	24.2%	12.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	30	MLBTOR	19	0	20	4.86	4.95	23.8%	12.5%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsEmmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Luis Santos (age 28) · Coleman Huntley III (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%24.6%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	5	0	8	38	8	6	1	0%	1.7	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	2.6%	2.16	4.77	—
2022	23	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	5	0	8	38	8	6	1	0%	1.7	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	2.6%	2.16	4.90	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	43	178	55	17	3	83%	3.6	23.4%	11.9%	11.5%	1.5%	3.98	3.43	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	43	178	55	17	3	83%	3.6	30.9%	9.6%	21.3%	1.7%	3.98	2.63	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	61	255	68	23	3	57%	2.9	20.4%	10.4%	10.1%	1.7%	1.93	3.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	61	255	68	23	3	57%	2.9	20.4%	10.4%	10.1%	1.7%	1.93	3.60	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	12	61	255	68	23	3	57%	2.9	26.7%	9.0%	17.6%	1.2%	1.93	2.64	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	58	277	82	42	8	0%	1.3	25.0%	14.7%	10.3%	3.8%	3.72	4.93	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	58	277	82	42	8	0%	1.3	25.0%	14.7%	10.3%	3.8%	3.72	4.93	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	58	277	82	42	8	0%	1.3	29.6%	15.2%	14.4%	2.9%	3.72	4.24	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TOR	7	0	7	30	7	4	1	0%	1.0	24.6%	12.6%	12.0%	3.1%	4.72	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	52	0	55	232	56	29	8	0%	1.1	24.2%	12.4%	11.8%	3.3%	4.76	4.81	-0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	TOR	44	0	46	196	47	24	7	0%	1.1	23.8%	12.5%	11.3%	3.5%	4.86	4.95	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	15	0	16	68	16	8	2	0%	1.1	24.2%	12.4%	11.8%	3.3%	4.76	4.81	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	TOR	19	0	20	84	20	11	3	0%	1.1	23.8%	12.5%	11.3%	3.5%	4.86	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	0	36	153	37	19	5	0%	1.0	24.0%	12.5%	11.5%	3.4%	4.82	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	204	105	28	0%	1.1	24.0%	12.5%	11.5%	3.4%	4.82	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		83	22	170	748	171	94	18	27%	2.0	22.9%	12.6%	10.3%	2.5%	3.07	4.11	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	26	200	880	201	111	22	27%	2.0	22.9%	12.6%	10.3%	2.5%	3.07	4.11	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 36 IPFIP 4.37 → 5.08 (+0.71)K% 30.2% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.17%	—	×0.860	25.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.64%	—	×0.900	14.08%
HR / BF /BF	3.35%	÷0.847	×1.100	4.35%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 4.37 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 22 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.65 (+1.04)K% 28.6% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.810	23.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.100	15.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷0.885	×1.200	2.77%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 51 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.60 (+0.82)K% 26.5% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.54%	—	×0.770	20.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.00%	—	×1.150	10.36%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.062	×1.250	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 10 IPFIP 1.95 → 2.50 (+0.55)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.810	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.145	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.95 → 2.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADunedin Blue Jays · 33 IPFIP 2.49 → 3.43 (+0.94)K% 31.7% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.65%	—	×0.740	23.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.07%	—	×1.180	11.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.44%	÷1.279	×1.300	1.46%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 2.49 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Vancouver Canadians · 10 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.79 (+0.69)K% 28.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.21%	—	×0.770	21.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.150	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.253	×1.250	2.56%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADunedin Blue Jays · 8 IPFIP 4.77 → 6.19 (+1.43)K% 21.1% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.740	15.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.79%	—	×1.180	18.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.916	×1.300	3.73%

Result: FIP 4.77 → 6.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Jennings (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.87	24.0%	11.5%	101	+0.15	—	—	—
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	78
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	77
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	76
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	75
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	74
Taylor Cole R 2018 · 3.70 FIP	28	SU	3.70	25.4%	10.4%	2.6%	.291	3.49	22.0%	13.9%	72	-0.21	3.49	433	74
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	74
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	74
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	73
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	73
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	73
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	73
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	73
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	72
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	72
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	71
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	71
Britt Reames R 2002 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.7%	10.4%	2.6%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	204	71
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	71
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	24.2%	12.5%	1.27	4.77
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35