Ryan Jennings — OGILVIE

Ryan Jennings P Buffalo Bisons

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%23.9%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—50

CTRL—55

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	5	0	8	38	8	6	1	0%	1.7	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	2.6%	2.16	4.77	—
2022	23	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	5	0	8	38	8	6	1	0%	1.7	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	2.6%	2.16	4.90	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	43	178	55	17	3	83%	3.6	23.4%	11.9%	11.5%	1.5%	3.98	3.43	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	43	178	55	17	3	83%	3.6	23.4%	11.9%	11.5%	1.5%	3.98	3.43	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	43	178	55	17	3	83%	3.6	30.9%	9.6%	21.3%	1.7%	3.98	2.63	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	61	255	68	23	3	57%	2.9	20.4%	10.4%	10.1%	1.7%	1.93	3.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	61	255	68	23	3	57%	2.9	20.4%	10.4%	10.1%	1.7%	1.93	3.60	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	12	61	255	68	23	3	57%	2.9	26.7%	9.0%	17.6%	1.2%	1.93	2.64	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	58	277	82	42	8	0%	1.3	24.4%	14.7%	9.7%	3.8%	3.72	4.98	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	58	277	82	42	8	0%	1.3	24.4%	14.7%	9.7%	3.8%	3.72	4.98	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	58	277	82	42	8	0%	1.3	29.6%	15.2%	14.4%	2.9%	3.72	4.24	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	TOR	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.9%	12.7%	11.2%	3.2%	4.83	4.83	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TOR	65	0	68	287	68	36	9	0%	1.0	23.7%	12.5%	11.2%	3.3%	4.83	4.86	-0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	62	0	65	274	64	34	9	0%	1.0	23.4%	12.5%	11.0%	3.4%	4.89	4.95	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	TOR	28	0	29	122	29	15	4	0%	1.0	23.7%	12.5%	11.2%	3.3%	4.83	4.86	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	36	0	38	160	38	20	5	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.5%	11.0%	3.4%	4.89	4.95	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	67	283	67	35	10	0%	1.0	23.5%	12.5%	11.1%	3.4%	4.86	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	104	30	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.5%	11.1%	3.4%	4.86	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		83	22	170	748	169	94	18	27%	2.0	22.6%	12.6%	10.0%	2.5%	3.07	4.13	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	26	200	880	199	111	22	27%	2.0	22.6%	12.6%	10.0%	2.5%	3.07	4.13	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Jennings (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	23.9%	12.7%	3.2%	—	4.90	23.6%	11.1%	133	+0.07	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	81
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	80
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	79
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	79
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.79 FIP	27	SU	4.79	22.6%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.21	3.73	223	79
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.86	21.0%	9.6%	69	+0.93	3.84	181	79
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	79
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	79
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	79
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	79
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	79
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	79
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	79
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	78
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	78
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	78
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	78
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	78
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	77
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	23.7%	12.6%	1.27	4.85
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78