Brian Edgington
P
Dayton Dragons
Age 27
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
A+
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.91
FIP4.91
K%19.0%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%8.4%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | ROK | ACL Reds | 3 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 2.7 | 34.3% | 5.7% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 0.93 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK | ACL Reds | 3 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 2.7 | 34.3% | 5.7% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 0.85 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 113 | 465 | 121 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 3.81 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 113 | 465 | 121 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 4.9 | 26.0% | 5.6% | 20.4% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 3.14 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 16 | 11 | 58 | 244 | 61 | 26 | 9 | 69% | 3.6 | 19.2% | 12.3% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 4.21 | 5.05 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 16 | 11 | 58 | 244 | 61 | 26 | 9 | 69% | 3.6 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 3.7% | 4.21 | 4.37 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 56 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 55 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 53 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.94 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 29 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 61 | 256 | 49 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.4% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 4.61 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 162 | 89 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 4.61 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 42 | 34 | 179 | 744 | 150 | 62 | 22 | 81% | 4.3 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.08 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 38 | 200 | 831 | 167 | 70 | 25 | 81% | 4.3 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brian Edgington (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.98 | 19.3% | 8.6% | 133 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 83 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 83 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 80 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 78 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 77 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.49 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 4.2% | .330 | 6.70 | 15.2% | 5.2% | 69 | +1.21 | 3.69 | 333 | 77 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 76 |
| Justin Topa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 76 |
| Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 76 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 76 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 76 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.40 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 4.5% | .325 | 4.40 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 107 | -1.00 | 4.00 | 464 | 75 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 75 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 75 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 75 |
| Kris Medlen R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 75 |
| Taylor Jungmann R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 435 | 74 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 73 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 73 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 19.2% | 10.7% | 1.23 | 4.92 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |