Brian Edgington
P
Dayton Dragons
+0.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
A+
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.5%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.0%
IP76
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4040
CMD4545
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | ROK | ACL Reds | 3 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 12 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 23 | 23 | 113 | 465 | 121 | 26 | 13 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 4.21 | 3.97 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 16 | 11 | 58 | 244 | 61 | 26 | 9 | 19.2% | 12.3% | 4.0% | 4.21 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 76 | 322 | 67 | 33 | 10 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.76 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 67 | 33 | 10 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.74 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 73 | 310 | 66 | 32 | 10 | 21.2% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.75 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 63 | 31 | 10 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.79 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 61 | 30 | 10 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 57 | 30 | 9 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 54 | 29 | 9 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.98 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 50 | 28 | 9 | 20.0% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 5.08 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 47 | 27 | 9 | 19.6% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 5.20 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 43 | 25 | 8 | 19.1% | 11.4% | 3.8% | 5.32 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 42 | 34 | 179 | 744 | 150 | 62 | 24 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.24 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 38 | 200 | 831 | 168 | 69 | 27 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.24 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brian Edgington (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 3.2% | — | 4.76 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 220 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 89 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 86 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.95 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .320 | 4.89 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | -0.06 | 3.69 | 239 | 86 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 85 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 85 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.46 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.20 | 4.26 | 258 | 85 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 85 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 242 | 85 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 85 |
| Brett McKinney R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 85 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.81 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.2% | .341 | 4.59 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | -0.22 | 3.74 | 223 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 84 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 84 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 84 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 84 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 84 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 84 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 84 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 83 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.