Brian Edgington — OGILVIE

Brian Edgington P Dayton Dragons

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%19.0%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	3	0	8	35	12	2	0	0%	2.7	34.3%	5.7%	28.6%	0.0%	4.50	0.93	—
2023	24	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	3	0	8	35	12	2	0	0%	2.7	34.3%	5.7%	28.6%	0.0%	4.50	0.93	—
2023	24	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	3	0	8	35	12	2	0	0%	2.7	34.3%	5.7%	28.6%	0.0%	4.50	0.85	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	465	121	26	13	100%	4.9	19.5%	6.5%	13.0%	3.1%	4.21	3.99	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	465	121	26	13	100%	4.9	19.5%	6.5%	13.0%	3.1%	4.21	3.99	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	113	465	121	26	13	100%	4.9	26.0%	5.6%	20.4%	2.8%	4.21	3.14	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	16	11	58	244	61	26	9	69%	3.6	19.2%	12.3%	7.0%	4.1%	4.21	5.28	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	16	11	58	244	61	26	9	69%	3.6	19.2%	12.3%	7.0%	4.1%	4.21	5.28	—
2025	26	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	16	11	58	244	61	26	9	69%	3.6	25.0%	10.7%	14.3%	3.7%	4.21	4.37	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	CIN	1	1	6	25	5	3	1	100%	6.0	19.0%	10.4%	8.6%	3.2%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	68	287	55	30	9	100%	6.2	19.3%	10.4%	8.9%	3.3%	4.92	4.96	-0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	65	274	53	29	9	100%	5.9	19.4%	10.5%	8.8%	3.4%	4.97	5.04	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	25	106	20	11	3	100%	6.2	19.3%	10.4%	8.9%	3.3%	4.92	4.96	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	36	152	29	16	5	100%	6.0	19.4%	10.5%	8.8%	3.4%	4.97	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	61	256	49	27	9	100%	6.1	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	3.3%	4.95	4.63	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	162	89	30	100%	6.0	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	3.3%	4.95	4.63	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		42	34	179	744	150	62	25	81%	4.3	20.1%	8.4%	11.8%	3.3%	4.22	4.27	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	38	200	831	167	70	27	81%	4.3	20.1%	8.4%	11.8%	3.3%	4.22	4.27	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brian Edgington (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	19.0%	10.4%	3.2%	—	5.00	19.3%	8.9%	133	+0.07	—	—	—
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	84
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	83
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	82
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	79
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	77
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	77
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	77
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	76
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	76
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	76
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	76
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	76
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	76
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	75
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	75
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	75
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	74
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	73
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	19.2%	10.4%	1.27	4.94
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50