Brian Edgington

P Dayton Dragons

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	ROKCIN	3	0	8	4.50	0.85	34.3%	5.7%	—	K 34.3% · BB 5.7% · FIP 0.93
2024	25	MIX2 levels	23	23	113	4.21	3.14	26.0%	5.6%	—	K 19.5% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.99
2025	26	A+CIN	16	11	58	4.21	4.37	25.0%	10.7%	—	K 19.2% · BB 12.3% · FIP 5.28
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBCIN	—	—	0	4.93	4.93	19.3%	10.9%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	29	MLBCIN	3	3	18	4.95	5.00	19.5%	10.9%	0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBCIN	4	4	26	5.03	5.12	19.4%	11.1%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command45

CompsFabio Castillo (age 28) · Travis Smith (age 29) · Austin Bergner (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%19.3%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	3	0	8	35	12	2	0	0%	2.7	34.3%	5.7%	28.6%	0.0%	4.50	0.93	—
2023	24	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	3	0	8	35	12	2	0	0%	2.7	34.3%	5.7%	28.6%	0.0%	4.50	0.85	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	465	121	26	13	100%	4.9	19.5%	6.5%	13.0%	3.1%	4.21	3.99	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	465	121	26	13	100%	4.9	19.5%	6.5%	13.0%	3.1%	4.21	3.99	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	113	465	121	26	13	100%	4.9	26.0%	5.6%	20.4%	2.8%	4.21	3.14	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	16	11	58	244	61	26	9	69%	3.6	19.2%	12.3%	7.0%	4.1%	4.21	5.28	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	16	11	58	244	61	26	9	69%	3.6	19.2%	12.3%	7.0%	4.1%	4.21	5.28	—
2025	26	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	16	11	58	244	61	26	9	69%	3.6	25.0%	10.7%	14.3%	3.7%	4.21	4.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.3%	10.9%	8.4%	3.1%	4.93	4.93	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	58	247	48	27	8	100%	5.8	19.5%	10.9%	8.6%	3.2%	4.95	5.00	+0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	50	213	41	24	7	100%	6.3	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	3.4%	5.03	5.12	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	CIN	3	3	18	76	15	8	2	100%	6.0	19.5%	10.9%	8.6%	3.2%	4.95	5.00	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	26	110	21	12	4	100%	6.5	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	3.4%	5.03	5.12	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	43	183	36	20	6	100%	6.2	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	3.4%	5.00	4.69	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	166	92	28	100%	6.0	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	3.4%	5.00	4.69	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		42	34	179	744	150	62	25	81%	4.3	20.1%	8.4%	11.8%	3.3%	4.22	4.27	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	38	200	831	167	70	27	81%	4.3	20.1%	8.4%	11.8%	3.3%	4.22	4.27	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 58 IPFIP 4.36 → 5.28 (+0.92)K% 25.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.770	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.66%	—	×1.150	12.25%
HR / BF /BF	3.69%	÷1.124	×1.250	4.10%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 4.36 → 5.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADaytona Tortugas · 72 IPFIP 3.03 → 4.06 (+1.03)K% 27.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.12%	—	×0.740	20.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.76%	—	×1.180	6.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.71%	÷1.078	×1.300	3.27%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.03 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 42 IPFIP 3.35 → 3.87 (+0.53)K% 24.1% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.12%	—	×0.770	18.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.29%	—	×1.150	6.09%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.285	×1.250	2.86%

Result: FIP 3.35 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Reds · 8 IPFIP 0.93 → 2.04 (+1.11)K% 34.3% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.29%	—	×0.680	23.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.71%	—	×1.250	7.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.059	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 0.93 → 2.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brian Edgington (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	19.3%	10.9%	3.1%	—	5.06	19.5%	8.5%	109	+0.13	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	83
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	78
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	77
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	76
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	76
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	76
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	76
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	76
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	74
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	73
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	73
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	73
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	72
Tim Corcoran R 2006 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP-	4.67	14.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.29	7.6%	-3.8%	17	+0.62	4.10	130	72
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	72
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	71
Chris Ellis R 2021 · 5.41 FIP	28	SP	5.41	19.6%	11.5%	4.6%	.274	6.15	12.2%	-0.9%	64	+0.74	3.84	780	71
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	71
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	14.6%	9.8%	2.3%	.311	4.01	17.3%	6.4%	44	-0.36	4.01	272	71
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	19.4%	10.9%	1.25	4.96
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*