Chris Ellis
P
Reno Aces
+0.0
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'5" / 205 lbs
AAA
ERA5.21
FIP5.21
xFIP8.74
SIERA8.37
K%18.8%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%7.0%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p5425.9%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p150.353
FB-1.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 26 | 26 | 141 | 606 | 132 | 63 | 15 | 17.2% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 3.90 | 4.80 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | Gwinnett Braves | 28 | 28 | 146 | 635 | 126 | 86 | 6 | 16.8% | 14.5% | 1.0% | 4.49 | 4.04 | +2.1 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 30 | 22 | 131 | 580 | 126 | 46 | 14 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 5.29 | 4.05 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 31 | 21 | 133 | 544 | 124 | 37 | 13 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.88 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 41 | 7 | 80 | 390 | 82 | 47 | 13 | 18.7% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 7.09 | 5.17 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 22 | 19 | 86 | 377 | 81 | 42 | 17 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 4.90 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 7 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Reno Aces | 15 | 15 | 64 | 310 | 44 | 45 | 14 | 12.5% | 15.2% | 4.4% | 9.09 | 6.38 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | STL | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 47 | 29 | 9 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 5.34 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | STL | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 44 | 27 | 8 | 19.1% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 5.31 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | STL | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 41 | 26 | 8 | 18.7% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 5.35 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | STL | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 37 | 24 | 8 | 18.1% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 5.44 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 196 | 141 | 790 | 3480 | 613 | 398 | 99 | 17.6% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 5.12 | 4.63 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 36 | 200 | 881 | 155 | 101 | 25 | 17.6% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 5.12 | 4.63 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris Ellis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.31 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 3.6% | — | 5.43 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 155 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 84 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.30 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.0% | .300 | 4.15 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.15 | 3.81 | 208 | 83 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 81 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 79 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.20 | 13.6% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 300 | 78 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.78 | 20.4% | 14.1% | 2.9% | .344 | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 43 | +0.28 | 2.00 | 320 | 77 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.08 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.23 | 2.86 | 596 | 77 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.39 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 148 | 76 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.63 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 5.47 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.84 | 4.63 | 172 | 75 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 74 |
| Jake Sanchez R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.91 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.86 | 361 | 74 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.88 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .288 | 3.97 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 171 | -0.91 | 3.15 | 248 | 74 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.11 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.84 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.27 | 3.75 | 284 | 74 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.23 | 15.7% | 13.1% | 3.3% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 622 | 74 |
| Austin Adams R 2025 · 5.85 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.85 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 5.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 162 | 73 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 73 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 73 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 73 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.29 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 4.3% | .277 | 4.81 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 198 | -0.48 | 3.88 | 885 | 72 |
| Jeff Manship R 2024 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.