Chris Ellis

P Reno Aces

Age 34 RHP 6'5" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAASPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	28	MIX2 levels	22	19	86	4.90	5.24	21.5%	11.1%	0.2	K 19.6% · BB 11.5% · FIP 5.41
2022	29	MIX2 levels	3	3	8	5.40	3.94	18.4%	18.4%	0.1	K 18.4% · BB 18.4% · FIP 3.88
2024	31	AAAARI	15	15	64	9.09	6.66	14.2%	14.5%	—	K 12.2% · BB 13.1% · FIP 6.15
2025	32	No MLB games played
2026	33	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	34	MLBARI	6	6	33	5.20	5.15	19.6%	11.4%	0.1
2028PROJ16% MLB	35	MLBARI	3	3	18	5.28	5.40	18.9%	11.6%	0.0
2029PROJ7% MLB	36	MLBARI	1	1	6	5.48	5.68	18.1%	11.9%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021

FB Velo40

K%28

xwOBA vs15

CompsKenshin Kawakami (age 34) · Jarrett Grube (age 34) · Manuel Flores (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.20

FIP5.15

K%19.6%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p2819.0%

xwOBA vs

p150.353

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	141	606	132	63	15	100%	5.4	17.2%	11.6%	5.6%	3.1%	3.90	4.83	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	141	606	132	63	15	100%	5.4	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	2.5%	3.90	3.95	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	146	635	126	86	6	100%	5.2	16.8%	14.5%	2.3%	1.0%	4.49	4.05	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	146	635	126	86	6	100%	5.2	19.8%	13.5%	6.3%	0.9%	4.49	3.67	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	22	131	580	126	46	14	73%	4.4	18.0%	8.6%	9.4%	2.5%	5.29	4.02	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	22	131	580	126	46	14	73%	4.4	21.7%	7.9%	13.8%	2.4%	5.29	3.62	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	21	133	544	124	37	13	68%	4.3	19.3%	7.3%	12.0%	2.6%	3.93	3.84	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	21	133	544	124	37	13	68%	4.3	22.8%	6.8%	16.0%	2.4%	3.93	3.34	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	7	80	390	82	47	13	17%	2.0	18.7%	12.5%	6.2%	3.8%	7.09	5.18	-0.6
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	7	80	390	82	47	13	17%	2.0	21.0%	12.1%	9.0%	3.3%	7.09	4.92	-0.3
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	19	86	377	81	42	17	86%	3.9	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	4.6%	4.90	5.41	-0.0
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	19	86	377	81	42	17	86%	3.9	21.5%	11.1%	10.3%	4.5%	4.90	5.24	+0.2
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	8	38	7	7	0	100%	2.8	18.4%	18.4%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.88	+0.2
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	8	38	7	7	0	100%	2.8	18.4%	18.4%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.94	+0.1
2024	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	15	15	64	310	44	45	14	100%	4.3	12.2%	13.1%	-0.9%	4.4%	9.09	6.15	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	15	15	64	310	44	45	14	100%	4.3	12.2%	13.1%	-0.9%	4.4%	9.09	6.15	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	15	15	64	310	44	45	14	100%	4.3	14.2%	14.5%	-0.3%	4.5%	9.09	6.66	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	8	35	151	25	21	3	80%	3.5	16.6%	13.9%	2.6%	2.0%	3.12	4.60	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	ARI	6	6	33	139	27	16	5	100%	5.5	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.4%	5.20	5.15	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	116	488	92	56	18	100%	6.1	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	3.7%	5.28	5.40	0.0
2029	36	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	87	369	67	44	15	100%	5.8	18.1%	11.9%	6.2%	4.0%	5.48	5.68	-0.3
2028	35	MLB CTX	ARI	3	3	18	76	14	9	3	100%	6.0	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	3.7%	5.28	5.40	0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	ARI	1	1	6	25	5	3	1	100%	6.0	18.1%	11.9%	6.2%	4.0%	5.48	5.68	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	12	58	251	44	33	7	86%	4.2	17.4%	13.0%	4.4%	2.7%	4.01	4.76	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		48	41	200	860	151	113	24	86%	4.2	17.4%	13.0%	4.4%	2.7%	4.01	4.76	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		196	141	790	3480	612	392	99	72%	4.0	17.6%	11.3%	6.3%	2.9%	5.12	4.61	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	36	200	881	155	99	25	72%	4.0	17.6%	11.3%	6.3%	2.9%	5.12	4.61	+0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAReno Aces · 64 IPFIP 6.22 → 6.15 (−0.07)K% 14.2% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.19%	—	×0.860	12.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.52%	—	×0.900	13.06%
HR / BF /BF	4.52%	÷1.124	×1.100	4.42%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 6.22 → 6.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAADurham Bulls · 57 IPFIP 5.57 → 5.99 (+0.42)K% 22.7% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.66%	—	×0.880	19.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.94%	—	×1.050	11.48%
HR / BF /BF	5.47%	÷1.059	×1.100	5.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 5.57 → 5.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 79 IPFIP 4.67 → 5.18 (+0.51)K% 21.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.30%	—	×0.880	18.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.95%	—	×1.050	12.55%
HR / BF /BF	3.38%	÷0.982	×1.100	3.78%

Result: FIP 4.67 → 5.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 79 IPFIP 3.34 → 3.84 (+0.50)K% 21.1% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.880	18.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.50%	—	×1.050	6.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷0.909	×1.100	2.62%

Result: FIP 3.34 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AASpringfield Cardinals · 54 IPFIP 3.37 → 3.85 (+0.48)K% 25.3% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.34%	—	×0.810	20.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.24%	—	×1.100	7.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.71%	÷1.215	×1.200	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AASpringfield Cardinals · 99 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.41 (+0.37)K% 22.4% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.35%	—	×0.810	18.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.29%	—	×1.100	8.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.65%	÷1.315	×1.200	1.50%

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 32 IPFIP 5.12 → 5.68 (+0.57)K% 20.0% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.880	17.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.050	10.16%
HR / BF /BF	4.52%	÷0.980	×1.100	5.07%

Result: FIP 5.12 → 5.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAGwinnett Braves · 68 IPFIP 4.09 → 4.38 (+0.29)K% 20.4% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.38%	—	×0.880	17.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.99%	—	×1.050	16.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷1.132	×1.100	1.22%

Result: FIP 4.09 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Ellis (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	5.52	18.5%	6.8%	203	+0.37	—	—	—
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	77
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	72
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	63
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	61
Albert Suárez R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	34	SP-	4.00	19.5%	6.8%	3.1%	.293	4.14	17.8%	10.6%	80	+0.14	3.58	616	61
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	60
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	58
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.56	486	57
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	56
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	55
Paolo Espino R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	34	SP-	4.32	20.2%	5.1%	4.2%	.277	4.81	16.6%	10.9%	260	+0.49	3.42	933	53
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	52
Francisco Rodriguez R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	34	SP	4.43	11.4%	8.2%	2.3%	.305	5.18	10.7%	1.4%	83	+0.75	3.16	334	52
Zach Neal R 2023 · 5.98 FIP	34	SW	5.98	15.6%	6.0%	6.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	732	48
Marco Carrillo R 2019 · 6.08 FIP	32	SP	6.08	9.9%	9.1%	4.9%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	5.33	194	48
Jesse Estrada R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	33	SP	5.39	8.3%	5.6%	4.2%	.285	4.34	14.4%	7.8%	85	-1.05	3.80	257	48
Francisco Cordova R 2016 · 4.59 FIP	32	SP	4.59	7.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	115	47
Casey Lawrence R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	34	SP-	4.55	18.6%	3.9%	4.6%	.237	4.99	13.4%	8.1%	414	+0.44	3.57	1,374	46
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	44
Masato Yoshii R 2000 · 5.32 FIP	35	SP	5.32	12.1%	6.5%	4.4%	.302	4.38	13.1%	8.0%	244	-0.94	4.15	757	44

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	101	18.8%	11.8%	1.36	5.10
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Rich Hand ('70-'73, 1 WAR*)	2.4	122	17.8%*	11.3%*	1.34*	4.83*
Wayne Simpson ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	3.2	106	17.4%*	11.0%*	1.09*	5.03*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37