Chris Ellis
P
Reno Aces
Age 33
RHP
6'5" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION40 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA5.29
FIP5.27
xFIP8.74
SIERA8.37
K%19.4%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%7.5%
IP40
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p5425.9%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p150.353
FB-1.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 26 | 26 | 141 | 606 | 132 | 63 | 15 | 17.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 3.90 | 4.91 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | Gwinnett Braves | 28 | 28 | 146 | 635 | 126 | 86 | 6 | 16.8% | 14.5% | 0.9% | 4.49 | 4.00 | +2.4 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 30 | 22 | 131 | 580 | 126 | 46 | 14 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.3% | 5.29 | 3.92 | +2.3 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 31 | 21 | 133 | 544 | 124 | 37 | 13 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.85 | +2.4 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 41 | 7 | 80 | 390 | 82 | 47 | 13 | 18.7% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 7.09 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 22 | 19 | 86 | 377 | 81 | 42 | 17 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 4.4% | 4.90 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 3.88 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Reno Aces | 15 | 15 | 64 | 310 | 44 | 45 | 14 | 12.5% | 15.2% | 4.0% | 9.09 | 6.16 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 33 | 20 | 6 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 5.29 | 5.27 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 18.9% | 12.1% | 3.8% | 5.36 | 5.48 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 26 | 17 | 6 | 18.3% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 5.55 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 22 | 16 | 5 | 17.5% | 12.8% | 4.4% | 5.81 | 6.02 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 196 | 141 | 790 | 3480 | 613 | 398 | 97 | 17.6% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 5.12 | 4.59 | +7.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 36 | 200 | 881 | 155 | 101 | 25 | 17.6% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 5.12 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris Ellis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.27 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 3.5% | — | 5.72 | 18.3% | 5.8% | 99 | +0.45 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2029 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 59 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2029 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 56 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.13 | 13.6% | 6.6% | 68 | +0.22 | 4.91 | 225 | 55 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.03 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 5.0% | .303 | 3.99 | 22.5% | 16.9% | 190 | -1.04 | 2.03 | 804 | 48 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.92 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 48 |
| Jered Weaver R 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.52 | 13.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | .298 | 7.82 | 12.0% | 5.7% | 42 | +2.30 | 4.57 | 379 | 46 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 44 |
| David Fletcher R 2023 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 41 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 252 | +0.29 | 3.69 | 521 | 39 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 37 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.86 | 12.3% | 9.1% | 4.8% | .304 | 3.48 | 14.5% | 7.1% | 139 | -2.38 | 3.48 | 292 | 35 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.71 | 12.5% | 8.7% | 4.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 199 | 34 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2025 · 6.57 FIP | 32 | SP- | 6.57 | 9.9% | 9.1% | 5.8% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.94 | 194 | 33 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.94 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .322 | 4.80 | 15.9% | 9.5% | 147 | -0.14 | 3.84 | 567 | 32 |
| Vance Worley R 2026 · 5.84 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.84 | 8.6% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 411 | 30 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2026 · 5.69 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.69 | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | .285 | 4.91 | 14.4% | 7.8% | 85 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 257 | 30 |
| Zach Neal R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.36 | 16.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | .321 | 5.99 | 15.9% | 9.4% | 101 | +0.63 | 4.33 | 732 | 29 |
| Kyle Kendrick R 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.23 | 13.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 337 | 25 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.13 | 22.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | .349 | 3.97 | 20.8% | 13.8% | 356 | -1.16 | 3.49 | 869 | 22 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.