Braydon Tucker
P
Reading Fightin Phils
+0.9
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2026
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.7%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%9.7%
IP105
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2026
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 4 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.20 | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 23 | 17 | 106 | 427 | 104 | 26 | 5 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 1.4% | 2.97 | 3.24 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 23 | 16 | 105 | 423 | 75 | 33 | 5 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 1.4% | 3.34 | 3.82 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 2 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PHI | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 83 | 40 | 11 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 114 | 482 | 97 | 45 | 11 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 4.10 | 4.03 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 85 | 40 | 11 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 83 | 39 | 11 | 19.1% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 80 | 38 | 11 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 18 | 18 | 97 | 408 | 77 | 37 | 11 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 73 | 36 | 11 | 18.6% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 16 | 16 | 89 | 374 | 68 | 35 | 11 | 18.3% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 64 | 34 | 11 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 65 | 30 | 10 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.68 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 60 | 29 | 10 | 19.1% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.82 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 13 | 13 | 69 | 290 | 54 | 28 | 10 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 4.96 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 36 | 225 | 910 | 154 | 76 | 12 | 16.9% | 8.3% | 1.3% | 3.16 | 3.46 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 32 | 200 | 809 | 137 | 68 | 11 | 16.9% | 8.3% | 1.3% | 3.16 | 3.46 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braydon Tucker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | — | 4.42 | 19.0% | 10.1% | 309 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 93 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 92 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 89 |
| Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 89 |
| Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 89 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 89 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 89 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 89 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 87 |
| Dallas Beeler R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.45 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .301 | 7.35 | 10.0% | 1.5% | 11 | +3.90 | 3.45 | 122 | 87 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 87 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 87 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 86 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 86 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.73 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .251 | 4.86 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.13 | 3.73 | 399 | 86 |
| Frank Batista R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 118 | 85 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2028 · 4.13 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.09 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.04 | 4.09 | 165 | 85 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 85 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 84 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.22 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.01 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.21 | 3.54 | 200 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.5 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| Totals | $5M | $16M | +$11M | ||