Braydon Tucker

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	23	17	106	2.97	2.49	24.4%	6.1%	—	K 18.3% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.25
2025	26	MIX2 levels	23	16	105	3.34	3.23	17.7%	7.8%	—	K 13.8% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.83
2026	27	AAPHI	22	21	103	4.88	4.75	20.8%	8.3%	—	K 16.9% · BB 9.2% · FIP 5.58
2027PROJ	28	MLBPHI	1	1	1	5.32	5.32	14.6%	9.5%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBPHI	3	3	18	5.30	5.35	15.3%	9.7%	0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBPHI	4	4	24	5.36	5.45	15.5%	9.9%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control55Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsTravis Smith (age 29) · Luke Irvine (age 27) · Miguel Ruiz (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%14.6%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%5.1%

Proj IP72

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	1	5	23	3	3	0	25%	1.2	13.0%	13.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.20	3.65	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	1	5	23	3	3	0	25%	1.2	13.0%	13.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.20	3.70	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	17	106	427	104	26	5	74%	4.6	18.3%	7.1%	11.2%	1.5%	2.97	3.25	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	17	106	427	104	26	5	74%	4.6	18.3%	7.1%	11.2%	1.5%	2.97	3.25	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	17	106	427	104	26	5	74%	4.6	24.4%	6.1%	18.3%	1.2%	2.97	2.49	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	105	423	75	33	5	70%	4.6	13.8%	8.8%	5.0%	1.4%	3.34	3.83	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	105	423	75	33	5	70%	4.6	13.8%	8.8%	5.0%	1.4%	3.34	3.83	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	105	423	75	33	5	70%	4.6	17.7%	7.8%	9.9%	1.2%	3.34	3.23	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	22	21	103	456	95	38	19	95%	4.7	16.9%	9.2%	7.7%	5.0%	4.88	5.58	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	22	21	103	456	95	38	19	95%	4.7	16.9%	9.2%	7.7%	5.0%	4.88	5.58	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	22	21	103	456	95	38	19	95%	4.7	20.8%	8.3%	12.5%	4.2%	4.88	4.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	PHI	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	14.6%	9.5%	5.1%	3.4%	5.32	5.32	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	56	239	36	23	8	100%	6.3	15.3%	9.7%	5.6%	3.5%	5.30	5.35	+0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	48	201	31	20	7	100%	6.0	15.5%	9.9%	5.6%	3.7%	5.36	5.45	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	3	3	18	76	12	7	3	100%	6.0	15.3%	9.7%	5.6%	3.5%	5.30	5.35	+0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	24	101	16	10	4	100%	6.0	15.5%	9.9%	5.6%	3.7%	5.36	5.45	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	42	178	27	18	6	100%	6.0	15.4%	9.8%	5.6%	3.6%	5.33	5.03	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	128	85	28	100%	6.0	15.4%	9.8%	5.6%	3.6%	5.33	5.03	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		72	55	319	1329	216	112	35	76%	4.4	16.3%	8.5%	7.8%	2.6%	3.78	4.24	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	34	200	832	136	70	22	76%	4.4	16.3%	8.5%	7.8%	2.6%	3.78	4.24	+0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 103 IPFIP 4.68 → 5.58 (+0.90)K% 20.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.810	16.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.100	9.17%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.68 → 5.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 85 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.81 (+0.63)K% 18.2% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.15%	—	×0.770	13.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.150	7.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷1.045	×1.250	1.78%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 20 IPFIP 3.49 → 3.92 (+0.43)K% 16.1% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.09%	—	×0.810	13.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×1.100	15.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.036	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.49 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AClearwater Threshers · 64 IPFIP 2.34 → 3.10 (+0.75)K% 24.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.22%	—	×0.740	17.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.08%	—	×1.180	5.99%
HR / BF /BF	1.17%	÷1.115	×1.300	1.37%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 2.34 → 3.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 42 IPFIP 2.63 → 3.48 (+0.85)K% 24.6% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.56%	—	×0.770	18.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.60%	—	×1.150	8.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.17%	÷0.926	×1.250	1.58%

Result: FIP 2.63 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braydon Tucker (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	14.6%	9.5%	3.4%	—	5.40	15.4%	5.6%	104	+0.08	—	—	—
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	88
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	84
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	81
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	80
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	80
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	80
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	78
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	78
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	78
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	78
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	77
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	76
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	76
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	76
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	76
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	14.6%	9.8%	2.3%	.311	4.01	17.3%	6.4%	44	-0.36	4.01	272	75
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	75
Tim Corcoran R 2006 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP-	4.67	14.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.29	7.6%	-3.8%	17	+0.62	4.10	130	75
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	75
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	15.1%	9.7%	1.36	5.32
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*