Nic Swanson
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 123
ERA5.43
FIP5.43
K%16.8%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%3.8%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Astros | 4 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 25% | 2.0 | 23.1% | 17.9% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 5.62 | 4.83 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Astros | 4 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 25% | 2.0 | 23.1% | 17.9% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 5.62 | 5.10 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 24 | 12 | 83 | 371 | 93 | 50 | 13 | 50% | 3.5 | 18.5% | 15.9% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 4.99 | 6.33 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 24 | 12 | 83 | 371 | 93 | 50 | 13 | 50% | 3.5 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 4.99 | 4.70 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 17 | 116 | 479 | 121 | 39 | 13 | 65% | 4.5 | 19.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 3.34 | 4.09 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 17 | 116 | 479 | 121 | 39 | 13 | 65% | 4.5 | 25.3% | 8.1% | 17.1% | 2.7% | 3.34 | 3.48 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 111 | 475 | 118 | 48 | 15 | 96% | 4.3 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.79 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 111 | 475 | 118 | 48 | 15 | 96% | 4.3 | 24.8% | 10.1% | 14.7% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.03 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 14 | 66 | 293 | 64 | 31 | 9 | 78% | 3.7 | 16.8% | 12.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.18 | 5.19 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 14 | 66 | 293 | 64 | 31 | 9 | 78% | 3.7 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 5.18 | 4.34 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 23 | 3 | 47 | 208 | 61 | 27 | 7 | 13% | 2.1 | 23.8% | 14.3% | 9.5% | 4.0% | 5.32 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | HOU | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 50 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.8% | 13.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.43 | 5.43 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | HOU | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.8% | 13.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.43 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 117 | 504 | 111 | 65 | 16 | — | — | 22.0% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 5.39 | 5.30 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 16.8% | 13.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.43 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 50 | 37 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.3% | 12.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 5.37 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 65 | 274 | 48 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.6% | 12.7% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.39 | 5.45 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 61 | 257 | 45 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.5% | 12.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.48 | 5.57 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 19 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.3% | 12.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 5.37 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 27 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.6% | 12.7% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.39 | 5.45 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 41 | 173 | 30 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.8 | 17.5% | 12.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.48 | 5.57 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 16 | 104 | 441 | 77 | 56 | 15 | 89% | 5.8 | 17.5% | 12.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.42 | 5.11 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 107 | 29 | 92% | 5.9 | 17.5% | 12.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.42 | 5.11 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 121 | 72 | 432 | 1865 | 359 | 233 | 67 | 60% | 3.6 | 19.3% | 12.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 4.59 | 5.02 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 33 | 200 | 864 | 166 | 108 | 31 | 60% | 3.6 | 19.3% | 12.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 4.59 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nic Swanson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.43 | 16.8% | 13.0% | 3.2% | — | 5.47 | 17.5% | 4.7% | 194 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 86 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 82 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 81 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 80 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 79 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 79 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 79 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 78 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 77 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 77 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 77 |
| Chris Jensen R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.29 | 12.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 488 | 77 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.53 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 119 | 76 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 75 |
| Shawn Dubin R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .292 | 3.91 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 79 | -1.44 | 3.04 | 341 | 75 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.30 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .285 | 5.87 | 16.1% | 5.4% | 99 | +1.57 | 3.92 | 233 | 75 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 74 |
| Robbie Peto R 2024 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 74 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 74 |
| Luis Niebla R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 156 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 17.3% | 12.8% | 1.28 | 5.42 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |