Nic Swanson

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	26	25	111	4.85	4.03	24.8%	10.1%	—	K 19.3% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.91
2025	26	MIX2 levels	18	14	66	5.18	4.34	21.8%	10.6%	—	K 16.8% · BB 12.4% · FIP 5.29
2026	27	MIX2 levels	42	3	79	4.65	4.42	27.9%	13.7%	—	K 22.5% · BB 14.2% · FIP 5.55
2027PROJ	28	MLBHOU	1	0	1	5.58	5.58	19.5%	14.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBHOU	16	0	17	5.54	5.59	19.6%	14.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBHOU	23	0	24	5.58	5.67	19.6%	14.1%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDennis O'Grady (age 26) · Josh Roeder (age 26) · Lisalverto Bonilla (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.58

FIP5.58

K%19.5%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	4	1	8	39	9	7	1	25%	2.0	23.1%	17.9%	5.1%	2.6%	5.62	4.83	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	4	1	8	39	9	7	1	25%	2.0	23.1%	17.9%	5.1%	2.6%	5.62	5.10	—
2022	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	12	83	371	93	50	13	50%	3.5	18.5%	15.9%	2.6%	4.8%	4.99	6.18	—
2022	23	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	12	83	371	93	50	13	50%	3.5	25.1%	13.5%	11.6%	3.5%	4.99	4.70	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	116	479	121	39	13	65%	4.5	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	2.9%	3.34	4.29	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	17	116	479	121	39	13	65%	4.5	25.3%	8.1%	17.1%	2.7%	3.34	3.48	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	111	475	118	48	15	96%	4.3	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.6%	4.85	4.91	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	111	475	118	48	15	96%	4.3	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.6%	4.85	4.91	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	111	475	118	48	15	96%	4.3	24.8%	10.1%	14.7%	3.2%	4.85	4.03	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	66	293	64	31	9	78%	3.7	16.8%	12.4%	4.4%	3.7%	5.18	5.29	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	66	293	64	31	9	78%	3.7	16.8%	12.4%	4.4%	3.7%	5.18	5.29	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	66	293	64	31	9	78%	3.7	21.8%	10.6%	11.3%	3.1%	5.18	4.34	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	3	79	344	96	47	12	7%	1.9	22.5%	14.2%	8.3%	4.6%	4.65	5.55	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	3	79	344	96	47	12	7%	1.9	22.5%	14.2%	8.3%	4.6%	4.65	5.55	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	3	79	344	96	47	12	7%	1.9	27.9%	13.7%	14.2%	3.5%	4.65	4.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	HOU	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	19.5%	14.4%	5.0%	3.5%	5.58	5.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	52	0	54	230	45	32	8	0%	1.0	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	3.6%	5.54	5.59	-0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	HOU	44	0	46	194	38	27	7	0%	1.0	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	3.8%	5.58	5.67	-0.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	16	0	17	72	14	10	3	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	3.6%	5.54	5.59	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	HOU	23	0	24	101	20	14	4	0%	1.0	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	3.8%	5.58	5.67	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	0	41	172	34	24	6	0%	1.0	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	3.7%	5.56	5.26	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	118	30	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	3.7%	5.56	5.26	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		140	72	464	2001	387	253	76	51%	3.3	19.3%	12.6%	6.7%	3.8%	4.52	5.16	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	31	200	863	167	109	33	51%	3.3	19.3%	12.6%	6.7%	3.8%	4.52	5.16	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 71 IPFIP 4.52 → 5.55 (+1.03)K% 27.7% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.74%	—	×0.810	22.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.90%	—	×1.100	14.19%
HR / BF /BF	3.87%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.65%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.52 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 8 IPFIP 3.22 → 3.31 (+0.09)K% 29.4% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.860	25.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.59%	—	×0.900	18.53%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.22 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 61 IPFIP 4.57 → 5.29 (+0.72)K% 20.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.73%	—	×0.810	16.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.27%	—	×1.100	12.40%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷1.057	×1.200	3.72%

Result: FIP 4.57 → 5.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 107 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.91 (+0.96)K% 25.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.05%	—	×0.770	19.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.24%	—	×1.150	11.78%
HR / BF /BF	3.05%	÷1.073	×1.250	3.55%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 59 IPFIP 2.34 → 3.29 (+0.94)K% 27.5% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.50%	—	×0.740	20.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.75%	—	×1.180	10.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷0.993	×1.300	1.09%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 2.34 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Asheville Tourists · 57 IPFIP 4.64 → 5.29 (+0.66)K% 23.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.01%	—	×0.770	17.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.53%	—	×1.150	8.66%
HR / BF /BF	4.60%	÷1.218	×1.250	4.72%

Result: FIP 4.64 → 5.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 83 IPFIP 4.61 → 6.18 (+1.57)K% 25.1% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.07%	—	×0.740	18.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.48%	—	×1.180	15.90%
HR / BF /BF	3.50%	÷0.949	×1.300	4.80%

Result: FIP 4.61 → 6.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Astros · 8 IPFIP 4.83 → 6.59 (+1.75)K% 23.1% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.680	15.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.95%	—	×1.250	22.44%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.59%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.83 → 6.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nic Swanson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.58	19.5%	14.4%	3.5%	—	5.63	19.6%	5.5%	100	+0.05	—	—	—
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	76
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	73
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	73
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	72
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	72
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	72
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	72
Kaleb Roper R 2022 · 5.67 FIP	26	SW	5.67	17.3%	11.8%	4.6%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	146	71
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	71
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	70
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	70
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	70
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	69
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	69
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	68
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	68
Jake Walters R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SW	5.85	15.2%	13.9%	4.2%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	261	68
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	68
Grant Judkins R 2024 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	16.8%	9.1%	4.2%	.264	5.80	14.9%	5.8%	124	+0.67	5.13	322	68
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	57	19.5%	14.2%	1.39	5.57
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*