Nic Swanson — OGILVIE

Nic Swanson P Corpus Christi Hooks

+0.0 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2028

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.1%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%9.3%

IP80

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2028

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	ROK	FCL Astros	4	1	8	39	9	7	1	—	—	—	5.62	—	—
2022	23	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	12	83	371	93	50	13	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	4.99	6.16	-0.9
2023	24	A+	Asheville Tourists	26	17	116	479	121	39	13	19.0%	9.5%	2.8%	3.34	4.24	+1.4
2024	25	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	26	25	111	475	118	48	15	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	4.85	4.93	+0.5
2025	26	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	18	14	66	293	64	31	9	16.8%	12.4%	3.6%	5.18	5.22	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	4	0	9	39	14	6	0	—	—	—	4.00	—	—
ROS	27	MLB	HOU	15	15	80	339	64	41	11	18.9%	12.1%	3.2%	5.18	5.18	-0.0
2026 Total	27	MLB	HOU	—	—	89	378	78	47	11	20.7%	12.5%	2.9%	5.06	4.66	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	HOU	15	15	81	342	66	40	11	19.2%	11.7%	3.2%	5.10	5.11	+0.0
2028	29	MLB	HOU	14	14	79	335	71	36	11	21.3%	10.7%	3.2%	4.91	4.82	+0.3
2029	30	MLB	HOU	14	14	77	325	69	35	11	21.2%	10.7%	3.3%	4.87	4.86	+0.2
2030	31	MLB	HOU	13	13	74	313	66	34	11	21.0%	10.8%	3.4%	4.89	4.92	+0.1
2031	32	MLB	HOU	13	13	71	301	62	33	10	20.7%	11.0%	3.4%	4.96	5.00	+0.0
2032	33	MLB	HOU	12	12	68	287	59	32	10	20.4%	11.2%	3.5%	5.05	5.10	-0.1
2033	34	MLB	HOU	12	12	65	273	55	31	10	20.1%	11.3%	3.6%	5.15	5.21	-0.2
2034	35	MLB	HOU	11	11	61	257	51	30	10	19.7%	11.6%	3.7%	5.26	5.33	-0.3
2035	36	MLB	HOU	57	—	57	240	46	28	9	19.2%	11.8%	3.9%	5.38	5.47	-0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			102	69	393	1696	324	210	60	19.1%	12.4%	3.5%	4.48	4.98	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—			52	35	200	862	165	107	31	19.1%	12.4%	3.5%	4.48	4.98	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nic Swanson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	18.9%	12.1%	3.2%	—	4.93	20.5%	9.4%	237	-0.25	—	—	—
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.72	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.12	3.22	221	86
Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP-	3.98	18.4%	8.9%	2.4%	.315	5.24	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.26	3.98	115	85
Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP	26	SP-	4.43	17.5%	10.9%	2.6%	.393	4.26	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.17	4.26	166	84
Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP-	4.38	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	250	83
Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	27	SP-	5.00	22.3%	13.6%	3.8%	.325	4.04	19.1%	7.8%	91	-0.96	4.04	448	82
Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 4.98 FIP	26	SP-	4.98	13.5%	11.0%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	157	82
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP-	4.46	16.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	195	82
Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP	26	SP-	4.72	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	175	81
Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP-	4.23	16.1%	8.3%	2.6%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.91	3.32	252	81
Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	27	SP-	4.43	14.9%	8.8%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	340	81
Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP	27	SP-	4.89	21.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.327	3.06	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.83	2.32	1,443	81
André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP-	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.01	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.21	3.54	200	81
Trent Sellers R 2024 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP-	4.51	21.8%	13.3%	2.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	178	81
Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	27	SP-	4.81	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.20	3.03	401	81
Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	16.9%	9.2%	3.7%	.231	3.67	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.19	3.65	424	80
Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	80
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	28	SP-	4.06	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.65	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.59	4.06	203	80
Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	27	SP-	4.05	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.368	4.33	21.5%	10.4%	79	+0.28	2.95	492	79
Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP-	4.64	18.8%	8.2%	3.8%	.327	3.81	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.83	3.39	316	79
Kanekoa Texeira R 2028 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.09	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.04	4.09	165	79

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.