Nic Swanson — OGILVIE

Nic Swanson P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.48

FIP5.48

K%16.8%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%3.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	4	1	8	39	9	7	1	25%	2.0	23.1%	17.9%	5.1%	2.6%	5.62	4.83	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	4	1	8	39	9	7	1	25%	2.0	23.1%	17.9%	5.1%	2.6%	5.62	5.10	—
2022	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	12	83	371	93	50	13	50%	3.5	18.5%	15.9%	2.6%	4.8%	4.99	6.18	—
2022	23	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	12	83	371	93	50	13	50%	3.5	25.1%	13.5%	11.6%	3.5%	4.99	4.70	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	116	479	121	39	13	65%	4.5	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	2.9%	3.34	4.29	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	116	479	121	39	13	65%	4.5	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	2.9%	3.34	4.29	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	17	116	479	121	39	13	65%	4.5	25.3%	8.1%	17.1%	2.7%	3.34	3.48	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	111	475	118	48	15	96%	4.3	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.6%	4.85	4.91	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	111	475	118	48	15	96%	4.3	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.6%	4.85	4.91	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	111	475	118	48	15	96%	4.3	24.8%	10.1%	14.7%	3.2%	4.85	4.03	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	66	293	64	31	9	78%	3.7	16.8%	12.4%	4.4%	3.7%	5.18	5.29	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	66	293	64	31	9	78%	3.7	16.8%	12.4%	4.4%	3.7%	5.18	5.29	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	66	293	64	31	9	78%	3.7	21.8%	10.6%	11.3%	3.1%	5.18	4.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	39	3	77	333	93	44	12	8%	2.0	22.5%	14.2%	8.3%	4.6%	4.81	5.55	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	39	3	77	333	93	44	12	8%	2.0	22.5%	14.2%	8.3%	4.6%	4.81	5.55	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	HOU	36	3	71	310	86	40	12	8%	2.0	27.7%	12.9%	14.8%	3.9%	4.94	4.52	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	HOU	3	0	6	23	7	4	0	0%	1.9	30.4%	17.4%	13.0%	0.0%	3.18	2.73	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	HOU	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	16.8%	12.9%	3.9%	3.2%	5.48	5.48	-0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	83	358	97	47	13	—	—	27.2%	13.2%	14.0%	3.6%	4.86	5.55	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	HOU	65	0	68	287	50	36	9	0%	1.0	17.3%	12.7%	4.6%	3.3%	5.41	5.44	-0.7
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	274	48	35	9	0%	1.0	17.6%	12.7%	4.9%	3.4%	5.43	5.49	-0.7
2027	28	MLB CTX	HOU	25	0	26	110	19	14	4	0%	1.0	17.3%	12.7%	4.6%	3.3%	5.41	5.44	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	34	0	36	152	27	19	5	0%	1.1	17.6%	12.7%	4.9%	3.4%	5.43	5.49	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	261	46	33	9	0%	1.0	17.5%	12.7%	4.8%	3.4%	5.42	5.09	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	107	29	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.7%	4.8%	3.4%	5.42	5.09	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		137	72	461	1990	385	251	76	53%	3.4	19.3%	12.6%	6.7%	3.8%	4.55	5.16	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	31	200	863	167	109	33	53%	3.4	19.3%	12.6%	6.7%	3.8%	4.55	5.16	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nic Swanson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.48	16.8%	12.9%	3.2%	—	5.46	17.5%	4.8%	133	-0.02	—	—	—
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	85
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	85
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	81
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	80
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	80
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	78
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	78
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	78
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	78
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	77
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	77
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	77
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	77
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	77
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	76
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	76
Luis Romero R 2021 · 6.01 FIP	27	SW	6.01	13.8%	10.1%	5.1%	.293	5.70	11.6%	-1.5%	68	-0.31	4.00	293	75
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	75
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	74
Andrew Bash R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	17.6%	12.7%	2.6%	.249	4.07	16.7%	7.2%	231	-0.56	3.52	483	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	17.2%	12.8%	1.29	5.44
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74