J.P. France

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 32 RHP 6'0" / 198 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	6	6	29	7.45	5.27	17.9%	11.4%	0.0	K 18.2% · BB 9.9% · FIP 5.15
2025	30	MIX4 levels	11	6	31	6.03	4.54	22.9%	16.7%	0.3	K 18.1% · BB 16.5% · FIP 5.39
2026	31	MIX2 levels	42	1	54	5.20	4.74	19.8%	14.5%	-0.1	K 17.9% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	32	MLBHOU	147	0	154	5.06	5.35	18.0%	13.9%	-1.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBHOU	94	0	99	5.40	5.63	17.1%	14.3%	-1.2
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBHOU	71	0	75	5.72	5.94	16.2%	14.8%	-1.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -3.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%23

FB Velo18

xwOBA vs10

CompsMarco Quevedo (age 32) · Juan Omar Espinoza (age 32) · Bradin Hagens (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.06

FIP5.35

K%18.0%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%4.1%

Proj IP154

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p5125.5%

p2318.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.363

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	23	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	4	0	10	39	14	4	0	0%	2.5	35.9%	10.3%	25.6%	0.0%	0.90	1.37	—
2018	23	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	4	0	10	39	14	4	0	0%	2.5	35.9%	10.3%	25.6%	0.0%	0.90	1.50	—
2019	24	A+ MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	20	100	431	100	52	12	80%	4.0	17.9%	13.9%	4.0%	3.6%	4.31	5.32	—
2019	24	A+ RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	20	100	431	100	52	12	80%	4.0	23.2%	12.1%	11.1%	2.8%	4.31	4.22	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	114	488	157	52	14	72%	4.6	27.6%	11.3%	16.3%	3.3%	3.79	4.04	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	114	488	157	52	14	72%	4.6	32.2%	10.7%	21.5%	2.9%	3.79	3.31	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	34	15	111	480	136	50	15	44%	3.3	24.9%	10.9%	14.0%	3.7%	3.90	4.44	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	34	15	111	480	136	50	15	44%	3.3	28.3%	10.4%	17.9%	3.1%	3.90	3.76	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	156	658	127	57	19	90%	5.4	18.7%	8.5%	10.2%	3.0%	3.64	4.22	+2.2
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	26	156	658	127	57	19	90%	5.4	19.3%	8.7%	10.6%	2.9%	3.64	4.15	+2.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	29	140	25	16	5	100%	4.8	18.2%	9.9%	8.3%	4.2%	7.45	5.15	+0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	29	140	25	16	5	100%	4.8	18.2%	9.9%	8.3%	4.2%	7.45	5.15	+0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	29	140	25	16	5	100%	4.8	17.9%	11.4%	6.4%	3.6%	7.45	5.27	+0.0
2025	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	6	31	144	33	24	3	55%	2.8	18.1%	16.5%	1.6%	3.1%	6.03	5.39	+0.0
2025	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	6	31	144	33	24	3	55%	2.8	18.1%	16.5%	1.6%	3.1%	6.03	5.39	+0.0
2025	30	MIX RAW	4 levels	11	6	31	144	33	24	3	55%	2.8	22.9%	16.7%	6.2%	2.1%	6.03	4.54	+0.3
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	1	54	262	52	38	6	2%	1.3	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	2.4%	5.20	4.53	+0.0
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	1	54	262	52	38	6	2%	1.3	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	2.4%	5.20	4.53	+0.0
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	1	54	262	52	38	6	2%	1.3	19.8%	14.5%	5.3%	2.3%	5.20	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			34	28	172	749	132	66	25	82%	5.1	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	3.3%	4.49	4.60	+1.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	HOU	147	0	154	650	117	90	19	0%	1.0	18.0%	13.9%	4.1%	3.0%	5.06	5.35	-1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	HOU	100	0	105	442	76	63	14	0%	1.0	17.1%	14.3%	2.8%	3.3%	5.40	5.63	-1.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	HOU	79	0	82	348	56	52	12	0%	1.0	16.2%	14.8%	1.4%	3.6%	5.72	5.94	-1.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	HOU	94	0	99	418	72	60	14	0%	1.1	17.1%	14.3%	2.8%	3.3%	5.40	5.63	-1.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	HOU	71	0	75	317	51	47	11	0%	1.1	16.2%	14.8%	1.4%	3.6%	5.72	5.94	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		200	28	346	1484	255	173	50	14%	1.7	17.2%	11.6%	5.5%	3.4%	5.02	4.97	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		115	16	200	857	147	100	29	14%	1.7	17.2%	11.6%	5.5%	3.4%	5.02	4.97	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		176	92	605	2642	567	299	86	52%	3.4	21.5%	11.3%	10.1%	3.3%	4.23	4.51	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	30	200	874	188	99	28	52%	3.4	21.5%	11.3%	10.1%	3.3%	4.23	4.51	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 47 IPFIP 4.34 → 4.53 (+0.18)K% 20.8% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.78%	—	×0.860	17.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.16%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.38%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.34 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 24 IPFIP 5.15 → 5.39 (+0.24)K% 21.1% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.10%	—	×0.860	18.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.35%	—	×0.900	16.51%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷0.961	×1.100	3.15%

Result: FIP 5.15 → 5.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 19 IPFIP 1.89 → 2.13 (+0.23)K% 33.8% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.77%	—	×0.860	29.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.99%	—	×0.900	11.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.896	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.89 → 2.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 111 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.44 (+0.70)K% 28.3% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.33%	—	×0.880	24.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×1.050	10.94%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷0.917	×1.100	3.75%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 80 IPFIP 3.78 → 4.50 (+0.72)K% 30.9% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.92%	—	×0.880	27.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.98%	—	×1.050	11.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.47%	÷0.935	×1.100	4.08%

Result: FIP 3.78 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 34 IPFIP 2.15 → 2.93 (+0.78)K% 35.2% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.21%	—	×0.810	28.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.86%	—	×1.100	10.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷1.074	×1.200	1.57%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.15 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fayetteville Woodpeckers · 100 IPFIP 4.20 → 5.32 (+1.12)K% 23.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.20%	—	×0.770	17.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.06%	—	×1.150	13.87%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷0.969	×1.250	3.59%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 4.20 → 5.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 10 IPFIP 1.37 → 2.39 (+1.02)K% 35.9% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.90%	—	×0.740	26.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.26%	—	×1.180	12.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.973	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 1.37 → 2.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.P. France (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	18.0%	13.9%	3.0%	—	5.77	16.7%	2.2%	187	+0.42	—	—	—
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	73
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	67
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	66
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2017 · 5.96 FIP	32	SW	5.96	10.0%	13.0%	3.8%	.316	4.50	21.3%	16.2%	15	-1.46	3.39	212	65
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	65
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	64
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	63
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	61
Seth Simmons R 2018 · 6.20 FIP	30	SW	6.20	13.3%	10.9%	5.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	251	61
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	60
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	57
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	57
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	14.0%	6.6%	4.2%	.268	5.28	17.5%	9.7%	166	+0.25	3.97	567	55
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	55
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	54
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	53
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	53
A.J. Schugel R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	32	SU	4.82	16.6%	12.3%	2.9%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	299	53
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	53
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	52

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	103	17.4%	12.4%	1.26	5.04
Wayne Simpson ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	3.2	106	17.4%*	11.0%*	1.09*	5.03*
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Juan Eichelberger ('78-'88, 0 WAR*)	3.0	101	15.8%*	11.2%*	1.20*	4.83*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Rich Hand ('70-'73, 1 WAR*)	2.4	122	17.8%*	11.3%*	1.34*	4.83*