J.P. France — OGILVIE

J.P. France P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 198 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.65

FIP4.91

K%17.9%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%5.6%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p5125.5%

p2318.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.363

CT+1.0 (23%)

SL (6%)

SI (5%)

CU (28%)

CH (15%)

FB-1.8 (27%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	4	0	10	39	14	4	0	0%	2.5	35.9%	10.3%	25.6%	0.0%	0.90	1.37	—
2018	23	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	4	0	10	39	14	4	0	0%	2.5	35.9%	10.3%	25.6%	0.0%	0.90	1.50	—
2019	24	A+ MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	20	100	431	100	52	12	80%	4.0	17.9%	13.9%	4.0%	3.6%	4.31	5.32	—
2019	24	A+ RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	20	100	431	100	52	12	80%	4.0	23.2%	12.1%	11.1%	2.8%	4.31	4.22	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	114	488	157	52	14	72%	4.6	27.6%	11.3%	16.3%	3.3%	3.79	4.04	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	114	488	157	52	14	72%	4.6	32.2%	10.7%	21.5%	2.9%	3.79	3.31	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	34	15	111	480	136	50	15	44%	3.3	24.9%	10.9%	14.0%	3.7%	3.90	4.44	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	34	15	111	480	136	50	15	44%	3.3	28.3%	10.4%	17.9%	3.1%	3.90	3.76	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	156	658	127	57	19	90%	5.4	18.6%	8.5%	10.1%	3.0%	3.64	4.23	+1.2
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	156	658	127	57	19	90%	5.4	18.6%	8.5%	10.1%	3.0%	3.64	4.23	+1.2
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	26	156	658	127	57	19	90%	5.4	19.3%	8.7%	10.6%	2.9%	3.64	4.15	+1.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	29	140	25	16	5	100%	4.8	18.2%	9.9%	8.3%	4.2%	7.45	5.15	-0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	29	140	25	16	5	100%	4.8	18.2%	9.9%	8.3%	4.2%	7.45	5.15	-0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	29	140	25	16	5	100%	4.8	17.9%	11.4%	6.4%	3.6%	7.45	5.27	-0.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	6	31	144	33	24	3	55%	2.8	17.5%	16.5%	1.0%	3.1%	6.03	5.44	-0.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	6	31	144	33	24	3	55%	2.8	17.5%	16.5%	1.0%	3.1%	6.03	5.44	-0.2
2025	30	MIX RAW	4 levels	11	6	31	144	33	24	3	55%	2.8	22.9%	16.7%	6.2%	2.1%	6.03	4.54	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			34	28	172	749	132	66	25	82%	5.1	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	3.3%	4.49	4.60	+0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	42	1	54	262	52	38	6	2%	1.3	17.2%	12.9%	4.4%	2.4%	5.20	4.58	—
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	42	1	54	262	52	38	6	2%	1.3	17.2%	12.9%	4.4%	2.4%	5.20	4.58	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	HOU	39	1	47	231	48	33	5	3%	1.2	20.8%	14.3%	6.5%	2.2%	4.79	4.34	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	HOU	3	0	7	31	4	5	1	0%	2.2	12.9%	16.1%	-3.2%	3.2%	8.10	5.82	—
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	HOU	3	0	7	31	4	5	1	0%	2.2	12.9%	16.1%	-3.2%	3.2%	8.10	5.82	—
ROS	31	MLB MLE	HOU	4	0	4	16	3	2	1	0%	0.9	17.9%	12.2%	5.6%	3.2%	4.65	4.91	-0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	HOU	4	0	4	17	3	2	1	0%	1.0	17.9%	12.2%	5.6%	3.2%	4.65	4.91	-0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	57	278	55	40	7	—	—	19.7%	14.4%	5.4%	2.3%	5.16	4.60	-0.0
FULL	31	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	10	44	55	40	7	—	—	125.3%	91.3%	34.0%	14.9%	28.60	12.24	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	HOU	39	0	40	171	29	22	6	0%	1.0	16.7%	12.9%	3.8%	3.5%	5.41	5.62	-0.5
2027	32	MLB CTX	HOU	36	0	38	160	27	21	6	0%	1.1	16.7%	12.9%	3.8%	3.5%	5.41	5.62	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	28	214	927	162	89	31	38%	2.9	17.5%	9.6%	7.9%	3.4%	4.66	4.69	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		69	26	200	864	151	83	29	38%	2.9	17.5%	9.6%	7.9%	3.4%	4.66	4.69	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		176	92	605	2642	564	299	86	52%	3.4	21.3%	11.3%	10.0%	3.3%	4.23	4.52	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	30	200	874	186	99	28	52%	3.4	21.3%	11.3%	10.0%	3.3%	4.23	4.52	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.P. France (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	18.0%	12.2%	3.2%	—	5.62	16.7%	3.8%	40	+0.34	—	—	—
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2019 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	15.8%	12.6%	2.5%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	221	67
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	247	66
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	64
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	64
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	64
Casey Coleman R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	31	SP-	4.79	15.2%	7.9%	3.6%	.344	5.06	18.4%	9.4%	78	+0.27	2.95	306	63
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	62
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	61
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	61
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	61
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	60
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	60
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	60
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.24	13.8%	-0.4%	23	+3.06	2.74	378	60
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	59
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	59
Seth Simmons R 2018 · 6.20 FIP	30	SW	6.20	13.3%	10.9%	5.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	251	59
David Holman R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	29	SW	5.80	8.9%	10.7%	3.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	5.28	129	59
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	58
Justin Masterson R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	31	SW	4.33	11.5%	11.1%	1.4%	.321	3.50	19.5%	8.7%	142	-0.83	3.50	269	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	42	17.4%	12.5%	1.30	5.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43