J.P. France
P
Houston Astros
+0.0
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'0" / 198 lbs
MLB
ERA4.76
FIP4.97
xFIP6.50
SIERA5.90
K%20.0%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%8.7%
IP42
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4040
CMD3535
K†4545
FB Velo
p1892.2
Whiff%
p5125.5%
K%
p2318.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.363
CT+1.0 (23%)
SL (6%)
SI (5%)
CU (28%)
CH (15%)
FB-1.8 (27%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 4 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 14 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.90 | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 25 | 20 | 100 | 431 | 100 | 52 | 12 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | 4.31 | 5.33 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Skeeters | 25 | 18 | 114 | 488 | 157 | 52 | 14 | 27.6% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 3.79 | 4.07 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 34 | 15 | 111 | 480 | 136 | 50 | 15 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 3.90 | 4.46 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 29 | 26 | 156 | 658 | 127 | 57 | 19 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 3.64 | 4.32 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 6 | 6 | 29 | 140 | 25 | 16 | 5 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 7.45 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 11 | 6 | 31 | 144 | 33 | 24 | 3 | 18.6% | 19.3% | 3.2% | 6.03 | 5.70 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 5 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 11 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.60 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | HOU | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 18.9% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 44 | 187 | 38 | 23 | 5 | 20.5% | 12.1% | 2.5% | 4.66 | 4.04 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 26 | 19 | 5 | 17.7% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 5.20 | 5.34 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 17.0% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 5.36 | 5.47 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 27 | — | 27 | 116 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 16.3% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 5.51 | 5.61 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 139 | 91 | 561 | 2422 | 532 | 276 | 81 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.12 | 4.52 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 32 | 200 | 863 | 190 | 98 | 29 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.12 | 4.52 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| J.P. France (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.21 | 18.9% | 12.2% | 3.2% | — | 5.46 | 17.1% | 4.2% | 93 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 76 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 74 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.33 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.1% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 200 | 72 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 71 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 70 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.31 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 131 | 69 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 133 | 69 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.31 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 104 | 69 |
| Jeff Manship R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 69 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 68 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 68 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.06 | 12.8% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .286 | 5.24 | 12.7% | 5.3% | 61 | +0.18 | 4.29 | 209 | 68 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.48 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.7% | .293 | 3.45 | 27.6% | 18.2% | 147 | -1.03 | 3.02 | 363 | 68 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.59 | 17.2% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 241 | 67 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 67 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .270 | 4.84 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.31 | 2.99 | 227 | 67 |
| Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.61 | 13.4% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .286 | 4.13 | 9.8% | 0.3% | 53 | -0.48 | 4.13 | 156 | 67 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 67 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2025 · 5.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.48 | 13.0% | 13.4% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 150 | 66 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2028 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.30 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.0% | .300 | 4.15 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.15 | 3.81 | 208 | 66 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.