Ryan Lobus
P
Frisco RoughRiders
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 94
ERA4.11
FIP4.11
K%25.0%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%15.7%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 4 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 16.7% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 18.00 | 5.39 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 4 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 16.7% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 18.00 | 6.35 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 12 | 94 | 374 | 134 | 22 | 11 | 44% | 3.5 | 27.0% | 7.2% | 19.7% | 3.5% | 2.96 | 3.66 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 12 | 94 | 374 | 134 | 22 | 11 | 44% | 3.5 | 35.8% | 5.9% | 29.9% | 2.9% | 2.96 | 2.47 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 45 | 3 | 67 | 284 | 82 | 26 | 5 | 7% | 1.5 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 2.2% | 3.48 | 3.62 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 45 | 3 | 67 | 284 | 82 | 26 | 5 | 7% | 1.5 | 28.9% | 9.2% | 19.7% | 1.8% | 3.48 | 2.79 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 27 | 0 | 40 | 174 | 44 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 1.8% | 4.72 | 3.60 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 74 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 110 | 470 | 118 | 42 | 11 | — | — | 25.1% | 9.0% | 16.1% | 2.4% | 4.33 | 3.92 | +1.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 25.0% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 3.73 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 74 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 73 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 47 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 76 | 320 | 80 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 9.3% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 3.75 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 79 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 9.3% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 3.75 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 103 | 15 | 206 | 856 | 208 | 76 | 24 | 15% | 2.0 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 3.68 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 15 | 200 | 832 | 202 | 74 | 23 | 15% | 2.0 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Lobus (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.11 | 25.0% | 9.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.12 | 25.1% | 15.8% | 139 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Trent Harris R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.45 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .258 | 4.07 | 22.8% | 13.3% | 87 | +0.62 | 3.45 | 163 | 88 |
| Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .257 | 2.89 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.54 | 2.31 | 225 | 88 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 87 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 87 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.3% | .284 | 3.25 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 125 | -0.65 | 3.08 | 201 | 86 |
| Steven Wilson R 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.13 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .271 | 3.80 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.33 | 3.36 | 311 | 86 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 86 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 86 |
| Simon Castro R 2028 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.55 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.39 | 2.85 | 185 | 85 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.88 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.10 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.22 | 3.88 | 158 | 85 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 84 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 84 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 84 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 84 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 84 |
| Austin Warren R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.78 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .338 | 4.31 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 73 | +0.53 | 3.78 | 294 | 84 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.81 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .255 | 4.69 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.88 | 3.16 | 253 | 83 |
| RJ Petit R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 231 | 83 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.44 | 25.0% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .375 | 5.15 | 20.1% | 8.3% | 108 | +1.71 | 3.44 | 224 | 83 |
| Seth Simmons R 2028 · 3.06 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.06 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.93 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.87 | 3.06 | 251 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 25.1% | 9.3% | 1.12 | 4.12 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |