Ryan Lobus — OGILVIE

Ryan Lobus P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 94

ERA4.07

FIP4.07

K%25.0%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%16.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CMD4050

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.5M
2030	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-3	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	4	0	4	24	6	4	1	0%	1.0	25.0%	16.7%	8.3%	4.2%	18.00	5.39	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	4	0	4	24	6	4	1	0%	1.0	25.0%	16.7%	8.3%	4.2%	18.00	5.39	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	4	0	4	24	6	4	1	0%	1.0	25.0%	16.7%	8.3%	4.2%	18.00	6.35	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	12	94	374	134	22	11	44%	3.5	27.0%	7.2%	19.7%	3.5%	2.96	3.68	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	12	94	374	134	22	11	44%	3.5	27.0%	7.2%	19.7%	3.5%	2.96	3.68	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	12	94	374	134	22	11	44%	3.5	35.8%	5.9%	29.9%	2.9%	2.96	2.47	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	45	3	67	284	82	26	5	7%	1.5	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.2%	3.48	3.59	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	45	3	67	284	82	26	5	7%	1.5	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.2%	3.48	3.59	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	45	3	67	284	82	26	5	7%	1.5	28.9%	9.2%	19.7%	1.8%	3.48	2.79	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	42	0	57	254	64	20	6	0%	1.4	20.7%	8.0%	12.7%	2.7%	5.02	3.83	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	42	0	57	254	64	20	6	0%	1.4	20.7%	8.0%	12.7%	2.7%	5.02	3.83	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	TEX	21	0	32	132	32	11	2	0%	1.5	24.2%	8.3%	15.9%	1.5%	4.55	2.94	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	TEX	21	0	26	122	32	9	4	0%	1.2	26.2%	7.4%	18.9%	3.3%	5.61	3.62	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TEX	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	25.0%	9.0%	16.0%	2.8%	4.07	4.07	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	63	279	70	22	7	—	—	25.2%	8.0%	17.2%	2.4%	4.93	3.85	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TEX	81	0	85	358	90	32	10	0%	1.0	25.1%	8.8%	16.2%	2.9%	4.07	4.05	+0.5
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	80	0	84	353	88	31	10	0%	1.0	24.8%	8.8%	16.0%	2.9%	4.10	4.11	+0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	77	0	81	342	84	31	10	0%	1.1	24.6%	8.9%	15.6%	3.0%	4.16	4.20	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	TEX	74	0	78	327	86	27	10	0%	1.0	26.2%	8.3%	17.9%	3.2%	4.10	4.06	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	TEX	69	0	73	307	80	26	10	0%	1.1	25.9%	8.6%	17.3%	3.4%	4.18	4.24	+0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	TEX	35	0	37	156	39	14	5	0%	1.1	25.1%	8.8%	16.2%	3.1%	4.19	4.17	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	50	0	53	224	56	20	7	0%	1.1	24.8%	8.8%	16.0%	3.1%	4.22	4.23	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	58	0	61	258	63	23	8	0%	1.1	24.6%	8.9%	15.6%	3.3%	4.28	4.32	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	TEX	60	0	63	266	70	22	9	0%	1.1	26.2%	8.3%	17.9%	3.4%	4.23	4.19	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	TEX	59	0	62	262	68	23	9	0%	1.1	25.9%	8.6%	17.3%	3.6%	4.32	4.38	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		264	0	277	1171	297	102	39	0%	1.1	25.4%	8.7%	16.7%	3.3%	4.25	3.89	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	214	74	28	0%	1.1	25.4%	8.7%	16.7%	3.3%	4.25	3.89	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		118	15	223	936	226	80	27	13%	1.9	24.1%	8.5%	15.6%	2.9%	3.91	3.74	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	13	200	839	203	72	24	13%	1.9	24.1%	8.5%	15.6%	2.9%	3.91	3.74	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Lobus (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	25.0%	9.0%	2.8%	—	4.12	24.8%	16.0%	250	+0.05	—	—	—
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	88
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	88
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	88
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	328	87
Tyler Schoff R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	25.2%	8.7%	3.0%	.315	4.26	16.1%	6.4%	75	+0.57	3.69	190	87
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	86
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	86
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	86
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	86
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	86
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	85
Lucas Wepf R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	27.6%	10.7%	2.7%	.323	3.97	26.2%	13.8%	136	+0.35	2.90	195	85
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	85
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.59	20.8%	8.4%	121	+0.80	3.77	244	85
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	84
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	84
Austin Warren R 2021 · 3.63 FIP	25	SU	3.63	23.8%	9.6%	2.4%	.338	4.28	18.5%	10.1%	73	+0.65	3.63	317	84
Matt Carasiti R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	22.2%	7.6%	2.7%	.313	3.36	23.4%	12.8%	93	-0.32	2.80	312	84
Dusty Isaacs R 2017 · 4.00 FIP	25	SU	4.00	23.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.255	4.62	21.6%	9.9%	86	+0.62	3.16	253	84
Seth Simmons R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	27	SU	3.07	23.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.277	4.87	16.6%	7.6%	175	+1.80	3.07	251	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	78	25.2%	8.8%	1.17	4.11
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48