Ryan Lobus
P
Frisco RoughRiders
+0.8
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA4.20
FIP4.20
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.9%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%14.7%
IP74
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 4 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 18.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 27 | 12 | 94 | 374 | 134 | 22 | 11 | 27.0% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 2.96 | 3.69 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 45 | 3 | 67 | 284 | 82 | 26 | 5 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | 3.48 | 3.60 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 4 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 75 | 29 | 9 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 81 | 345 | 83 | 32 | 10 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 3.84 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 76 | 29 | 9 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.19 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 74 | 311 | 75 | 29 | 9 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 74 | 28 | 9 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.24 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 71 | 28 | 9 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.28 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 69 | 27 | 9 | 23.6% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 66 | 281 | 66 | 27 | 9 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 62 | 26 | 9 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 55 | 25 | 8 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 51 | 24 | 8 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 47 | 23 | 8 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 80 | 15 | 173 | 713 | 181 | 63 | 22 | 25.4% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 3.54 | 3.72 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 93 | 17 | 200 | 826 | 210 | 73 | 25 | 25.4% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 3.54 | 3.72 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Lobus (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.21 | 24.0% | 14.8% | 221 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 94 |
| Trent Harris R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.46 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .258 | 3.75 | 23.1% | 14.7% | 57 | +0.29 | 3.46 | 134 | 91 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 90 |
| Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.10 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .257 | 2.97 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 2.43 | 225 | 89 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 88 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 88 |
| Steven Wilson R 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .271 | 3.68 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.34 | 3.61 | 311 | 88 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 87 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 87 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 86 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 86 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 86 |
| Simon Castro R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 86 |
| Casey Cobb R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.52 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .261 | 5.56 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +2.04 | 3.52 | 191 | 86 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.97 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .255 | 4.63 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.66 | 3.16 | 253 | 86 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.64 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .250 | 3.83 | 24.1% | 12.5% | 118 | +0.19 | 1.48 | 230 | 85 |
| Seth Simmons R 2028 · 3.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.07 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.88 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.81 | 3.07 | 251 | 85 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.38 | 25.0% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .375 | 5.68 | 20.2% | 9.5% | 72 | +2.30 | 3.38 | 188 | 85 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 85 |
| Isaiah Campbell R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.34 | 25.5% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 4.11 | 17.7% | 9.7% | 74 | +0.77 | 3.29 | 192 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.2 | $1M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $6M | $12M | +$6M | ||