Joshua Loeschorn

P Altoona Curve

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	34	4	68	3.97	2.81	32.6%	6.6%	—	K 24.5% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.86
2025	25	MIX4 levels	26	0	28	2.86	2.39	21.2%	4.4%	—	K 17.7% · BB 4.7% · FIP 3.08
2026	26	AAPIT	28	5	63	4.43	4.13	20.8%	9.1%	—	K 16.9% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.87
2027PROJ	27	MLBPIT	1	0	1	4.85	4.85	17.9%	9.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBPIT	10	0	10	4.85	4.88	18.4%	9.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 27) · Tyler Walker (age 28) · Justin Lehr (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%17.9%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	4	68	273	89	18	8	12%	2.0	24.5%	7.7%	16.8%	3.4%	3.97	3.86	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	4	68	273	89	18	8	12%	2.0	32.6%	6.6%	26.0%	2.9%	3.97	2.81	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	0	28	113	24	5	1	0%	1.1	17.7%	4.7%	13.0%	1.6%	2.86	3.08	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	0	28	113	24	5	1	0%	1.1	17.7%	4.7%	13.0%	1.6%	2.86	3.08	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	0	28	113	24	5	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	4.4%	16.8%	0.9%	2.86	2.39	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	28	5	63	274	57	25	8	18%	2.2	16.9%	10.0%	6.8%	3.5%	4.43	4.87	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	28	5	63	274	57	25	8	18%	2.2	16.9%	10.0%	6.8%	3.5%	4.43	4.87	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	28	5	63	274	57	25	8	18%	2.2	20.8%	9.1%	11.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	PIT	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	17.9%	9.4%	8.6%	3.1%	4.85	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	PIT	25	0	26	111	20	11	4	0%	1.1	18.4%	9.5%	8.9%	3.2%	4.85	4.88	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	PIT	10	0	10	42	8	4	1	0%	1.0	18.4%	9.5%	8.9%	3.2%	4.85	4.88	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	8	4	1	0%	1.1	18.4%	9.5%	8.9%	3.2%	4.85	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	81	20	0%	1.1	18.4%	9.5%	8.9%	3.2%	4.85	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		88	9	159	660	133	54	21	10%	1.8	20.1%	8.2%	12.0%	3.1%	3.95	4.15	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		110	11	200	828	167	68	26	10%	1.8	20.1%	8.2%	12.0%	3.1%	3.95	4.15	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 63 IPFIP 4.10 → 4.87 (+0.77)K% 20.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.80%	—	×0.810	16.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.12%	—	×1.100	10.04%
HR / BF /BF	2.92%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.50%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.10 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 20 IPFIP 2.42 → 3.08 (+0.67)K% 23.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.97%	—	×0.770	17.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.05%	—	×1.150	4.66%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.048	×1.250	1.61%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 2.42 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ABradenton Marauders · 40 IPFIP 1.89 → 3.20 (+1.31)K% 36.6% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.65%	—	×0.740	27.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.83%	—	×1.180	8.06%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷0.971	×1.300	2.50%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 1.89 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 28 IPFIP 4.08 → 4.82 (+0.74)K% 26.8% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.79%	—	×0.770	20.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.150	7.19%
HR / BF /BF	4.46%	÷1.202	×1.250	4.64%

Result: FIP 4.08 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joshua Loeschorn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	17.9%	9.4%	3.1%	—	4.88	18.4%	8.9%	26	+0.03	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	87
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	84
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	83
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	83
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	83
Geoff Geary R 2004 · 4.85 FIP	27	SU	4.85	15.0%	6.5%	4.0%	.295	3.65	15.0%	9.5%	217	-1.20	3.16	345	83
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	82
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	82
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	82
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	81
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	81
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	81
Scot Shields R 2002 · 4.27 FIP	27	SU	4.27	16.0%	10.6%	2.1%	.201	3.01	22.1%	15.0%	345	-1.26	2.77	686	81
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	81
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	81
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	81
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	81
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	81
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	18.1%	9.4%	1.21	4.85
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*