Trent Harris
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.5
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 206 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.27
FIP4.27
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%14.4%
IP64
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | A | San Jose Giants | 15 | 0 | 21 | 81 | 33 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.43 | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 36 | 0 | 80 | 304 | 105 | 25 | 6 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 1.81 | 3.46 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 43 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 65 | 19 | 6 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 3.75 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 15.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 63 | 24 | 8 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | SF | — | — | 67 | 287 | 66 | 25 | 10 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.08 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 62 | 24 | 8 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 58 | 23 | 8 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SF | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 55 | 23 | 8 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SF | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 52 | 22 | 8 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SF | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SF | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 21.8% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SF | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 43 | 20 | 7 | 21.4% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SF | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 39 | 19 | 7 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 3.7% | 4.95 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 97 | 0 | 161 | 643 | 173 | 53 | 17 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 2.80 | 3.29 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 120 | 0 | 200 | 799 | 215 | 66 | 21 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 2.80 | 3.29 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trent Harris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.36 | 23.1% | 14.0% | 184 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 94 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 90 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 89 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 89 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 88 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 87 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 87 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 87 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 87 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 86 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 86 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 86 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 85 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 85 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 85 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.55 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.15 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.40 | 4.02 | 328 | 84 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 84 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.81 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.2% | .341 | 4.59 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | -0.22 | 3.74 | 223 | 84 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.62 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.2% | .252 | 4.15 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 307 | 84 |
| John Gorman R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.99 | 23.4% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .366 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 141 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.4M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $7M | +$3M | ||