Matt Pushard
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 250 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 88
ERA3.82
FIP3.82
K%23.3%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CU (12%)
CH (8%)
SL (34%)
FB-0.6 (46%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 5 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 24.0% | 32.0% | -8.0% | 4.0% | 14.73 | 7.32 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 5 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 24.0% | 32.0% | -8.0% | 4.0% | 14.73 | 9.92 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 0 | 53 | 213 | 52 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 1.0% | 2.91 | 3.19 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 0 | 53 | 213 | 52 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.4% | 8.0% | 16.4% | 0.9% | 2.91 | 2.59 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 55 | 228 | 68 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 2.28 | 3.77 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 55 | 228 | 68 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.8% | 7.9% | 21.9% | 2.6% | 2.28 | 3.03 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 49 | 1 | 62 | 256 | 73 | 23 | 3 | 2% | 1.3 | 25.1% | 9.4% | 15.7% | 1.6% | 3.61 | 3.05 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 49 | 1 | 62 | 256 | 73 | 23 | 3 | 2% | 1.3 | 28.5% | 9.0% | 19.5% | 1.2% | 3.61 | 2.49 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 39 | 0 | 44 | 201 | 41 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 4.06 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | STL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 61 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 3.82 | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | STL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 61 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 3.82 | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | STL | — | — | 107 | 464 | 102 | 49 | 11 | — | — | 22.1% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 2.3% | 3.92 | 4.06 | +1.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | STL | — | — | 69 | 293 | 102 | 49 | 11 | — | — | 35.0% | 16.7% | 18.2% | 3.6% | 6.03 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 65 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 60 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | STL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 55 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.63 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 62 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 57 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | STL | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 53 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.63 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 234 | 0 | 246 | 1043 | 239 | 111 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 3.97 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 846 | 194 | 90 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 3.97 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 173 | 1 | 218 | 923 | 202 | 94 | 19 | 1% | 1.3 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 2.1% | 3.38 | 3.67 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 158 | 1 | 200 | 845 | 185 | 86 | 17 | 1% | 1.3 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 2.1% | 3.38 | 3.67 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Pushard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.12 | 24.1% | 10.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.44 | 23.0% | 12.3% | 186 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.32 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .271 | 2.99 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.51 | 544 | 90 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 90 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 88 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 88 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 87 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.04 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .266 | 3.81 | 24.3% | 15.9% | 164 | +0.77 | 2.33 | 445 | 87 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 87 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 85 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2029 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 84 |
| Blake Wood R 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .325 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.05 | 210 | 84 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.54 | 25.8% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .253 | 3.91 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 154 | +0.37 | 2.90 | 484 | 84 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.43 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.77 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 187 | +0.34 | 2.67 | 333 | 84 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.26 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 1.3% | .327 | 3.25 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 187 | -0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 84 |
| Brad Brach R 2027 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 84 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 83 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2029 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 83 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.96 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 1.3% | .247 | 4.39 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 39 | +1.43 | 2.96 | 160 | 83 |
| Dayan Díaz R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.43 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .358 | 4.01 | 29.4% | 19.3% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.17 | 205 | 83 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2029 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 83 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 64 | 23.3% | 10.6% | 1.06 | 4.29 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Archie Bradley ('21) | 6 | 74 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 0.85 | 3.93 |