Matt Pushard
P
St. Louis Cardinals
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 250 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA3.99
FIP3.99
xFIP8.28
SIERA6.12
K%24.1%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%14.8%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†6060
CU (19%)
SL (35%)
FB-0.6 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 5 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | 14.73 | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 39 | 0 | 53 | 213 | 52 | 17 | 2 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 1.0% | 2.91 | 3.23 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 41 | 0 | 55 | 228 | 68 | 18 | 6 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 2.28 | 3.86 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 49 | 1 | 62 | 256 | 73 | 23 | 3 | 25.1% | 9.4% | 1.5% | 3.61 | 2.97 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | STL | 28 | — | 28 | 118 | 28 | 11 | 3 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | STL | — | — | 30 | 128 | 29 | 12 | 3 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 4.62 | 3.72 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 57 | 22 | 6 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.05 | 4.07 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 55 | 22 | 6 | 23.6% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | STL | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 52 | 21 | 6 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | STL | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 50 | 21 | 6 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | STL | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | STL | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | STL | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | STL | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 37 | 18 | 6 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 136 | 1 | 176 | 732 | 166 | 73 | 14 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 1.9% | 3.32 | 3.48 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 155 | 1 | 200 | 832 | 189 | 83 | 16 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 1.9% | 3.32 | 3.48 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Pushard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.99 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% | — | 4.15 | 23.6% | 14.2% | 165 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 88 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 86 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 83 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 83 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .327 | 4.82 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.30 | 2.39 | 676 | 82 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 81 |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 80 |
| Greg Holland R 2027 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.19 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.45 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.26 | 1.94 | 268 | 80 |
| Stephen Fife R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.10 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 3.65 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.55 | 3.10 | 179 | 80 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.25 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .247 | 4.33 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 39 | +1.08 | 3.25 | 160 | 80 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.11 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .266 | 3.78 | 24.3% | 15.9% | 164 | +0.67 | 2.27 | 445 | 80 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 80 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.30 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .271 | 2.97 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.54 | 521 | 80 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 79 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 79 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 79 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.53 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.28 | 24.0% | 17.4% | 119 | +0.75 | 2.83 | 363 | 79 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 283 | 79 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 79 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.6M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.7M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.7M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $5M | $10M | +$6M | ||