Matt Pushard — OGILVIE

Matt Pushard P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 250 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10496vR 88

ERA3.73

FIP3.73

K%22.5%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CMD3040

K†5555

CU (12%)

CH (8%)

SL (34%)

FB-0.6 (46%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	24	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	5	0	4	25	6	8	1	0%	0.7	24.0%	32.0%	-8.0%	4.0%	14.73	7.32	—
2022	24	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	5	0	4	25	6	8	1	0%	0.7	24.0%	32.0%	-8.0%	4.0%	14.73	9.92	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	53	213	52	17	2	0%	1.4	18.7%	9.0%	9.7%	1.0%	2.91	3.23	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	53	213	52	17	2	0%	1.4	18.7%	9.0%	9.7%	1.0%	2.91	3.23	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	0	53	213	52	17	2	0%	1.4	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	0.9%	2.91	2.59	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	55	228	68	18	6	0%	1.3	24.1%	8.9%	15.2%	3.0%	2.28	3.87	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	55	228	68	18	6	0%	1.3	24.1%	8.9%	15.2%	3.0%	2.28	3.87	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	55	228	68	18	6	0%	1.3	29.8%	7.9%	21.9%	2.6%	2.28	3.03	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	49	1	62	256	73	23	3	2%	1.3	23.7%	8.1%	15.6%	1.4%	3.61	2.91	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	49	1	62	256	73	23	3	2%	1.3	23.7%	8.1%	15.6%	1.4%	3.61	2.91	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	49	1	62	256	73	23	3	2%	1.3	28.5%	9.0%	19.5%	1.2%	3.61	2.49	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	7	32	6	4	0	0%	1.2	18.8%	12.5%	6.2%	0.0%	5.14	3.10	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	43	1	56	246	54	23	5	2%	1.3	18.6%	8.0%	10.6%	2.6%	3.70	3.95	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	43	1	56	246	54	23	5	2%	1.3	18.6%	8.0%	10.6%	2.6%	3.70	3.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	STL	37	1	49	214	48	19	5	3%	1.3	22.4%	8.9%	13.6%	2.3%	3.49	3.61	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	STL	6	0	7	32	6	4	0	0%	1.2	18.8%	12.5%	6.2%	0.0%	5.14	3.10	—
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	STL	6	0	7	32	6	4	0	0%	1.2	18.8%	12.5%	6.2%	0.0%	5.14	3.10	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	STL	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	2.5%	3.73	3.73	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	STL	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	2.5%	3.73	3.73	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	62	271	60	25	6	—	—	22.0%	9.3%	12.7%	2.1%	3.70	3.93	+0.5
FULL	28	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	13	54	60	25	6	—	—	109.9%	46.6%	63.2%	10.4%	17.82	5.41	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	STL	63	0	66	280	63	27	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	9.8%	12.7%	2.6%	4.17	4.22	+0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	STL	59	0	62	263	58	26	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	2.8%	4.31	4.40	+0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	STL	60	0	63	266	60	26	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	9.8%	12.7%	2.6%	4.17	4.22	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	STL	56	0	59	249	55	25	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	2.8%	4.31	4.40	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	0	135	572	127	57	14	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	2.5%	4.26	3.87	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	848	188	85	21	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	2.5%	4.26	3.87	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		177	2	230	968	207	88	20	1%	1.3	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	2.1%	3.33	3.59	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	2	200	842	180	76	18	1%	1.3	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	2.1%	3.33	3.59	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Pushard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.08	23.1%	9.3%	2.5%	—	4.31	22.4%	12.5%	128	+0.23	—	—	—
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	91
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	90
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	88
Ryan Tepera R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	28	SU	3.11	22.6%	8.9%	1.4%	.266	3.81	24.3%	15.9%	164	+0.70	2.35	445	88
Blake Treinen R 2016 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	24.0%	9.5%	1.9%	.271	3.04	26.0%	17.7%	215	-0.28	1.53	547	88
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	87
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	86
Andrew Robinson R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	28	SU	3.19	22.2%	7.9%	1.8%	.247	4.32	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.13	3.19	160	86
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	86
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	31	SU	3.07	22.5%	9.7%	1.1%	.298	5.78	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.71	3.07	148	85
Luis García R 2015 · 3.23 FIP	28	SU	3.23	20.7%	9.5%	1.2%	.327	3.22	21.6%	12.8%	187	-0.01	2.33	617	85
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	84
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	84
Sam Dyson R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	28	SU	3.42	19.3%	8.1%	1.7%	.287	3.76	18.9%	11.9%	187	+0.34	2.66	333	84
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	84
Chaz Roe R 2015 · 3.14 FIP	28	SU	3.14	20.7%	8.4%	1.3%	.300	2.73	28.4%	20.7%	140	-0.41	1.72	257	84
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	84
Danny Farquhar R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	28	SU	3.85	22.4%	6.8%	3.2%	.324	3.84	22.0%	12.8%	135	-0.01	3.62	224	84
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	84
Robert Stock R 2018 · 2.91 FIP	28	SU	2.91	22.2%	8.5%	1.1%	.262	4.51	24.1%	11.9%	88	+1.60	2.74	378	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	22.6%	9.7%	1.01	4.18
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84