Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 11 | 54 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 6.35 | 1.69 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 11 | 54 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 6.35 | 1.51 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 51 | 205 | 75 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 15.5% | 2.3% | 3.20 | 3.53 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 51 | 205 | 75 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 36.6% | 9.3% | 27.3% | 1.0% | 3.20 | 1.78 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 224 | 79 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.2% | 11.7% | 17.5% | 2.5% | 2.40 | 3.48 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 224 | 79 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 35.3% | 10.7% | 24.6% | 1.8% | 2.40 | 2.50 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 30 | 1 | 41 | 170 | 53 | 10 | 11 | 3% | 1.4 | 27.4% | 6.2% | 21.3% | 7.1% | 4.87 | 5.47 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CWS | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 78 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CWS | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 111 | 466 | 131 | 47 | 19 | — | — | 28.2% | 10.1% | 18.2% | 4.2% | 4.56 | 4.78 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 7 | 30 | 8 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 26.5% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.00 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 75 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 70 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 65 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 41 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 46 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 111 | 0 | 117 | 494 | 127 | 61 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.21 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 217 | 104 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 126 | 1 | 159 | 653 | 184 | 65 | 22 | 1% | 1.3 | 28.2% | 9.9% | 18.3% | 3.4% | 3.57 | 3.87 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 158 | 1 | 200 | 821 | 232 | 82 | 28 | 1% | 1.3 | 28.2% | 9.9% | 18.3% | 3.4% | 3.57 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Franklin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 26.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.58 | 25.7% | 13.3% | 194 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.71 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .252 | 4.13 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.42 | 3.15 | 307 | 87 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.01 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 363 | 86 |
| Kyle Barraclough R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.42 | 26.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .282 | 5.00 | 24.5% | 12.2% | 89 | +1.58 | 1.95 | 523 | 85 |
| Brad Brach R 2028 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 85 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.7% | .360 | 5.09 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 173 | 85 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 85 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 83 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 83 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 82 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 82 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .295 | 2.74 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.72 | 2.74 | 239 | 82 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 81 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.74 | 277 | 81 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 81 |
| Matt Blackham R 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.90 | 25.4% | 12.0% | 2.6% | .206 | 7.09 | 26.9% | 8.7% | 25 | +3.19 | 2.08 | 187 | 81 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.83 | 16.8% | 2.7% | 45 | +0.84 | 3.74 | 163 | 81 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.28 | 26.1% | 13.0% | 1.3% | .266 | 1.48 | 29.8% | 22.7% | 15 | -1.80 | 1.48 | 230 | 80 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 80 |
| Michael Tonkin R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.33 | 29.2% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .309 | 6.08 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 22 | +2.75 | 2.33 | 480 | 80 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 25.9% | 12.4% | 1.18 | 4.48 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |