Colin Poche — OGILVIE

Colin Poche P Syracuse Mets

Age 32 LHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116125vR 133

ERA4.67

FIP5.24

K%19.7%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4545

FB-2.9 (72%)

SL-3.0 (28%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	50	194	81	16	0	0%	1.6	31.5%	9.6%	21.9%	0.0%	1.25	1.65	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	50	194	81	16	0	0%	1.6	41.8%	8.2%	33.5%	0.0%	1.25	0.84	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	2	66	241	110	19	2	5%	1.6	39.2%	8.3%	30.9%	0.9%	0.82	1.36	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	2	66	241	110	19	2	5%	1.6	45.6%	7.9%	37.8%	0.8%	0.82	1.02	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	71	2	79	329	120	27	13	3%	1.1	34.7%	8.3%	26.4%	4.0%	5.24	3.42	+1.1
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	71	2	79	329	120	27	13	3%	1.1	36.5%	8.2%	28.3%	4.0%	5.24	3.23	+1.2
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	71	0	65	266	75	24	11	0%	0.9	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	4.6%	3.62	4.57	-0.0
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	71	0	65	266	75	24	11	0%	0.9	28.2%	9.0%	19.2%	4.1%	3.62	4.11	+0.3
2023	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	66	0	61	246	61	23	4	0%	0.9	24.8%	9.3%	15.4%	1.7%	2.23	3.11	+1.0
2023	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	66	0	61	246	61	23	4	0%	0.9	24.8%	9.3%	15.4%	1.7%	2.23	3.11	+1.0
2023	29	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	66	0	61	246	61	23	4	0%	0.9	24.8%	9.3%	15.4%	1.6%	2.23	3.08	+1.1
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	40	165	34	12	7	0%	0.9	21.6%	7.2%	14.4%	4.7%	4.05	4.77	-0.1
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	40	165	34	12	7	0%	0.9	21.6%	7.2%	14.4%	4.7%	4.05	4.77	-0.1
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	40	165	34	12	7	0%	0.9	20.6%	7.3%	13.3%	4.2%	4.05	4.58	-0.0
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	28	133	27	27	4	3%	0.9	18.3%	19.3%	-1.1%	2.9%	7.39	5.59	-0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	28	133	27	27	4	3%	0.9	18.3%	19.3%	-1.1%	2.9%	7.39	5.59	-0.3
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	1	28	133	27	27	4	3%	0.9	20.3%	20.3%	0.0%	3.0%	7.39	5.92	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			239	0	218	903	241	88	32	0%	0.9	26.7%	9.7%	16.9%	3.5%	4.01	4.01	+1.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	NYM	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	13.6%	6.0%	3.1%	4.67	5.24	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	NYM	50	0	52	220	42	31	7	0%	1.0	18.8%	14.1%	4.7%	3.4%	5.18	5.52	-0.6
2028	34	MLB MLE	NYM	45	0	48	201	36	29	7	0%	1.1	17.9%	14.6%	3.3%	3.7%	5.57	5.82	-0.7
2029	35	MLB MLE	NYM	41	0	43	180	31	27	7	0%	1.0	17.0%	15.1%	1.8%	4.0%	5.92	6.16	-0.7
2027	33	MLB CTX	NYM	18	0	19	80	15	11	3	0%	1.1	18.8%	14.1%	4.7%	3.4%	5.18	5.52	-0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	NYM	14	0	15	63	11	9	2	0%	1.1	17.9%	14.6%	3.3%	3.7%	5.57	5.82	-0.2
2029	35	MLB CTX	NYM	11	0	12	51	9	8	2	0%	1.1	17.0%	15.1%	1.8%	4.0%	5.92	6.16	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		283	0	264	1099	276	116	39	0%	0.9	25.2%	10.6%	14.6%	3.6%	4.27	4.27	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		214	0	200	832	209	88	30	0%	0.9	25.2%	10.6%	14.6%	3.6%	4.27	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		356	5	389	1574	460	150	43	1%	1.1	29.2%	9.6%	19.7%	2.8%	3.27	3.36	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		183	3	200	810	237	77	22	1%	1.1	29.2%	9.6%	19.7%	2.8%	3.27	3.36	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colin Poche (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	19.7%	13.6%	3.1%	—	5.81	18.0%	3.4%	142	+0.57	—	—	—
Marc Rzepczynski L 2018 · 5.68 FIP	32	SU	5.68	17.0%	16.0%	3.6%	.403	5.36	14.8%	1.6%	45	-0.32	2.73	181	77
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	76
Mike Dunn L 2017 · 4.29 FIP	32	SU	4.29	25.9%	12.7%	3.2%	.276	5.11	17.3%	2.6%	35	+0.82	3.71	181	74
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	74
Dan Runzler L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	32	SU	4.20	17.5%	11.0%	2.1%	.325	4.84	16.0%	3.0%	27	+0.64	3.78	127	74
Tommy Layne L 2017 · 5.32 FIP	32	SU	5.32	13.3%	14.4%	2.8%	.253	3.83	21.8%	14.4%	64	-1.49	1.32	182	72
Ryan Buchter L 2019 · 4.75 FIP	32	SU	4.75	25.3%	10.6%	4.4%	.286	5.24	22.9%	9.7%	32	+0.49	2.37	296	70
Ryan Sherriff L 2022 · 4.06 FIP	32	SU	4.06	20.7%	12.4%	2.1%	.344	3.85	21.1%	10.1%	24	-0.21	2.96	245	67
Vidal Nuño L 2019 · 4.40 FIP	32	SU	4.40	20.2%	8.7%	3.5%	.376	4.88	16.0%	11.1%	53	+0.48	4.00	424	66
Brett Cecil L 2018 · 5.57 FIP	32	SU	5.57	12.1%	12.7%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	1.96	191	66
James Jones L 2021 · 5.35 FIP	32	SU	5.35	23.0%	11.4%	5.0%	.315	4.28	17.8%	2.8%	36	-1.07	3.58	127	66
Brian Duensing L 2015 · 4.47 FIP	32	SU	4.47	11.5%	8.1%	2.4%	.252	3.76	20.2%	11.8%	137	-0.71	2.57	198	66
Neal Cotts L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	35	SU	4.66	21.6%	7.4%	4.4%	.257	3.77	21.9%	14.5%	93	-0.89	3.21	156	63
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	63
Zach Duke L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	32	SU	4.21	25.9%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	2.85	22.9%	14.7%	131	-1.36	2.44	215	62
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2021 · 4.98 FIP	32	SU	4.98	15.2%	7.0%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	159	62
Edward Paredes L 2019 · 5.10 FIP	32	SU	5.10	21.5%	7.3%	5.3%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	130	61
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	61
Zac Rosscup L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	31	SU	4.42	26.4%	20.5%	1.7%	.386	2.69	26.6%	13.7%	58	-1.73	2.56	160	60
Sam Freeman L 2019 · 5.60 FIP	32	SU	5.60	16.8%	11.3%	4.5%	.380	4.01	18.5%	5.4%	36	-1.59	3.03	299	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	18.5%	14.3%	1.35	5.29
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77