Colin Poche
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 32
LHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119129vR 138
ERA4.69
FIP5.28
K%19.9%
BB%14.2%
K-BB%5.7%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB-2.9 (72%)
SL-3.0 (28%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 50 | 194 | 81 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 31.5% | 9.6% | 21.9% | 0.0% | 1.25 | 1.65 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 50 | 194 | 81 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 41.8% | 8.2% | 33.5% | 0.0% | 1.25 | 0.84 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 2 | 66 | 241 | 110 | 19 | 2 | 5% | 1.6 | 39.2% | 8.3% | 30.9% | 1.0% | 0.82 | 1.37 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 2 | 66 | 241 | 110 | 19 | 2 | 5% | 1.6 | 45.6% | 7.9% | 37.8% | 0.8% | 0.82 | 1.02 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 71 | 2 | 79 | 329 | 120 | 27 | 13 | 3% | 1.1 | 34.7% | 8.3% | 26.4% | 4.0% | 5.24 | 3.40 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 71 | 2 | 79 | 329 | 120 | 27 | 13 | 3% | 1.1 | 36.5% | 8.2% | 28.3% | 4.0% | 5.24 | 3.23 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 71 | 0 | 65 | 266 | 75 | 24 | 11 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.1% | 9.0% | 17.1% | 4.8% | 3.62 | 4.64 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 71 | 0 | 65 | 266 | 75 | 24 | 11 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.2% | 9.0% | 19.2% | 4.1% | 3.62 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 66 | 0 | 61 | 246 | 61 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.8% | 9.3% | 15.4% | 1.7% | 2.23 | 3.13 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 66 | 0 | 61 | 246 | 61 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.8% | 9.3% | 15.4% | 1.6% | 2.23 | 3.08 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 40 | 165 | 34 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.6% | 7.2% | 14.4% | 4.8% | 4.05 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 40 | 165 | 34 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.6% | 7.3% | 13.3% | 4.2% | 4.05 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 28 | 133 | 27 | 27 | 4 | 3% | 0.9 | 18.9% | 20.8% | -1.9% | 2.6% | 7.39 | 5.58 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 28 | 133 | 27 | 27 | 4 | 3% | 0.9 | 20.3% | 20.3% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 7.39 | 5.92 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 48 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 14.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 42 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 14.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 5.21 | 5.56 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 36 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.60 | 5.86 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 41 | 0 | 43 | 180 | 31 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 15.7% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 5.96 | 6.20 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 14.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 5.21 | 5.56 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.60 | 5.86 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 15.7% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 5.96 | 6.20 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 283 | 0 | 264 | 1099 | 277 | 117 | 39 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.2% | 10.7% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 214 | 0 | 200 | 832 | 210 | 89 | 30 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.2% | 10.7% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 356 | 5 | 389 | 1574 | 461 | 152 | 44 | 1% | 1.1 | 29.3% | 9.7% | 19.6% | 2.8% | 3.27 | 3.38 | +9.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 3 | 200 | 810 | 237 | 78 | 22 | 1% | 1.1 | 29.3% | 9.7% | 19.6% | 2.8% | 3.27 | 3.38 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colin Poche (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.28 | 19.9% | 14.2% | 3.1% | — | 5.85 | 18.2% | 3.1% | 142 | +0.57 | — | — | — |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.79 | 17.0% | 16.0% | 3.8% | .403 | 5.24 | 14.8% | 1.6% | 45 | -0.55 | 2.79 | 181 | 75 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 74 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.45 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.79 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.34 | 3.77 | 127 | 73 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 72 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.33 | 13.3% | 14.4% | 2.8% | .253 | 3.86 | 21.8% | 14.4% | 64 | -1.47 | 1.32 | 182 | 70 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.63 | 25.3% | 10.6% | 4.2% | .286 | 5.07 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 32 | +0.44 | 2.37 | 296 | 68 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 67 |
| Brett Cecil L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.45 | 12.1% | 12.7% | 3.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.96 | 191 | 65 |
| Brian Duensing L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.70 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.76 | 2.59 | 198 | 64 |
| James Jones L 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.47 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 5.2% | .315 | 4.38 | 18.3% | 2.1% | 36 | -1.09 | 3.58 | 127 | 64 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.21 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .376 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 11.1% | 53 | +0.64 | 4.07 | 424 | 64 |
| Neal Cotts L 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 62 |
| Zach Duke L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.18 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .250 | 2.81 | 22.9% | 14.7% | 131 | -1.37 | 2.44 | 215 | 62 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.48 | 26.4% | 20.5% | 1.9% | .386 | 2.67 | 26.6% | 13.7% | 58 | -1.81 | 2.51 | 160 | 62 |
| Craig Breslow L 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 62 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.87 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 61 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.51 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 241 | 59 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.19 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.29 | 130 | 59 |
| Edwin Escobar L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.24 | 20.1% | 16.3% | 3.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 218 | 59 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.70 | 16.8% | 11.3% | 4.7% | .380 | 4.02 | 18.5% | 5.4% | 36 | -1.68 | 3.03 | 299 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 18.7% | 14.8% | 1.34 | 5.31 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |