Brian Moran

P Columbus Clingstones

Age 38 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	34	AAAATL	38	0	48	3.21	3.56	28.3%	9.8%	—	K 24.3% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.95
2024	35	AAAATL	27	2	46	5.91	3.76	22.9%	7.6%	—	K 19.7% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.09
2025	36	MIX2 levels	23	4	59	3.36	2.66	25.1%	5.3%	—	K 20.7% · BB 5.6% · FIP 3.24
2026	37	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	38	MLBATL	1	0	1	4.09	4.09	20.4%	5.7%	0.0
2028PROJMLE	39	MLBATL	—	—	0	4.35	4.51	19.9%	6.7%	—
2029PROJMLE	40	MLBATL	—	—	0	4.68	4.90	19.4%	7.6%	—

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control60Command55

CompsHisanori Takahashi (age 37) · Chris Nichting (age 36) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA4.09

FIP4.09

K%20.4%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%14.7%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	33	143	29	18	2	0%	1.2	17.7%	14.1%	3.6%	2.0%	3.24	4.50	—
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	33	143	29	18	2	0%	1.2	20.3%	12.6%	7.7%	1.4%	3.24	3.76	—
2016	27	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	6	0	5	22	1	0	1	0%	0.9	4.5%	0.0%	4.5%	4.5%	5.06	5.21	—
2016	27	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Braves	6	0	5	22	1	0	1	0%	0.9	4.5%	0.0%	4.5%	4.5%	5.06	5.16	—
2017	28	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	19	0	19	71	27	3	1	0%	1.0	30.8%	4.6%	26.2%	1.3%	1.89	1.80	—
2017	28	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	19	0	19	71	27	3	1	0%	1.0	38.0%	4.2%	33.8%	1.4%	1.89	1.42	—
2018	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	61	268	76	21	4	0%	1.2	23.2%	8.5%	14.7%	1.5%	3.71	3.04	—
2018	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	61	268	76	21	4	0%	1.2	28.4%	7.8%	20.5%	1.5%	3.71	2.49	—
2019	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	66	281	87	25	7	2%	1.3	26.9%	10.0%	16.9%	2.4%	3.26	3.40	+0.9
2019	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	1	66	281	87	25	7	2%	1.3	31.0%	8.9%	22.1%	2.5%	3.26	2.98	+1.2
2020	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	7	0	5	26	7	6	1	0%	0.7	26.9%	23.1%	3.8%	3.8%	9.64	5.86	-0.1
2020	31	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	7	0	5	26	7	6	1	0%	0.7	26.9%	23.1%	3.8%	3.8%	9.64	6.74	-0.1
2021	32	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	53	0	50	196	65	13	1	0%	0.9	29.2%	7.0%	22.2%	0.5%	2.16	1.81	—
2021	32	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	53	0	50	196	65	13	1	0%	0.9	33.2%	6.6%	26.5%	0.5%	2.16	1.54	—
2022	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	49	216	52	14	8	2%	1.1	21.7%	7.0%	14.7%	3.7%	4.41	4.20	+0.2
2022	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	49	216	52	14	8	2%	1.1	24.1%	6.5%	17.6%	3.7%	4.41	3.96	+0.3
2023	34	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	38	0	48	205	58	20	6	0%	1.3	24.3%	8.8%	15.6%	3.3%	3.21	3.95	—
2023	34	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	38	0	48	205	58	20	6	0%	1.3	28.3%	9.8%	18.5%	2.9%	3.21	3.56	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	27	2	46	210	48	16	6	7%	1.7	19.7%	6.9%	12.8%	3.2%	5.91	4.09	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	27	2	46	210	48	16	6	7%	1.7	19.7%	6.9%	12.8%	3.2%	5.91	4.09	—
2024	35	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	27	2	46	210	48	16	6	7%	1.7	22.9%	7.6%	15.2%	2.9%	5.91	3.76	—
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	4	59	227	57	12	4	17%	2.6	20.7%	5.6%	15.0%	2.1%	3.36	3.24	—
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	4	59	227	57	12	4	17%	2.6	20.7%	5.6%	15.0%	2.1%	3.36	3.24	—
2025	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	4	59	227	57	12	4	17%	2.6	25.1%	5.3%	19.8%	1.8%	3.36	2.66	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	0	11	60	17	7	3	0%	0.6	28.3%	11.7%	16.7%	5.0%	7.94	5.39	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	ATL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	20.4%	5.7%	14.7%	2.9%	4.09	4.09	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	ATL	36	0	38	160	32	11	5	0%	1.0	19.9%	6.7%	13.2%	3.4%	4.35	4.51	+0.0
2029	40	MLB MLE	ATL	26	0	27	114	22	9	4	0%	1.0	19.4%	7.6%	11.8%	3.8%	4.68	4.90	-0.1
2028	39	MLB CTX	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%	6.7%	13.2%	3.4%	4.35	4.51	—
2029	40	MLB CTX	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.4%	7.6%	11.8%	3.8%	4.68	4.90	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	11	60	17	7	3	0%	0.6	28.3%	11.7%	16.7%	5.0%	7.94	4.93	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		318	0	200	1059	300	124	53	0%	0.6	28.3%	11.7%	16.7%	5.0%	7.94	4.93	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		349	8	441	1865	435	154	44	2%	1.3	23.3%	8.3%	15.1%	2.4%	3.64	3.47	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	4	200	846	197	70	20	2%	1.3	23.3%	8.3%	15.1%	2.4%	3.64	3.47	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 46 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.06 (+0.63)K% 23.9% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.86%	—	×0.810	19.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.68%	—	×1.100	6.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷0.934	×1.200	1.46%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 13 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.87 (+0.61)K% 29.4% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.860	25.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.92%	—	×0.900	3.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.92%	÷0.961	×1.100	4.49%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 46 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.09 (+0.39)K% 22.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.86%	—	×0.860	19.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.62%	—	×0.900	6.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.968	×1.100	3.25%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 48 IPFIP 3.55 → 3.95 (+0.40)K% 28.3% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.29%	—	×0.860	24.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.76%	—	×0.900	8.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.93%	÷0.984	×1.100	3.27%

Result: FIP 3.55 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 49 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.20 (+0.52)K% 24.6% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.64%	—	×0.880	21.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.64%	—	×1.050	6.97%
HR / BF /BF	3.32%	÷0.978	×1.100	3.73%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAADurham Bulls · 50 IPFIP 1.42 → 1.81 (+0.39)K% 33.2% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.16%	—	×0.880	29.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.63%	—	×1.050	6.96%
HR / BF /BF	0.51%	÷1.059	×1.100	0.53%

Result: FIP 1.42 → 1.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 60 IPFIP 3.03 → 3.40 (+0.37)K% 30.6% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.56%	—	×0.880	26.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.050	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.100	×1.100	2.38%

Result: FIP 3.03 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAHartford Yard Goats · 49 IPFIP 2.46 → 3.06 (+0.60)K% 31.3% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.28%	—	×0.810	25.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.58%	—	×1.100	8.34%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.194	×1.200	1.91%

Result: FIP 2.46 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brian Moran (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.09	20.4%	5.7%	2.9%	—	4.67	19.7%	12.6%	65	+0.58	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	71
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	39
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	37
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	36
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	36
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	34
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	32
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	31
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	30
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	30
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	23
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	17
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	13

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	20.9%	7.3%	1.33	4.61
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*