Grades · Statcast · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 2.95 | 4.10 | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 2.95 | 4.13 | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 49 | 0 | 67 | 288 | 55 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 1.8% | 2.83 | 3.67 | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 49 | 0 | 67 | 288 | 55 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.1% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 1.4% | 2.83 | 3.22 | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 68 | 272 | 62 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 5.7% | 15.0% | 1.6% | 3.18 | 2.94 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 68 | 272 | 62 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 5.5% | 17.3% | 1.5% | 3.18 | 2.70 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 10 | 45 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 6.52 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 10 | 45 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 6.52 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33% | 1.2 | 8.8% | 0.0% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 1.29 | 2.35 | — |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33% | 1.2 | 8.8% | 0.0% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 1.29 | 2.24 | — |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 10 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.35 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 10 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.31 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 2 | 40 | 179 | 44 | 22 | 1 | 4% | 0.8 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 0.5% | 3.79 | 3.09 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 2 | 40 | 179 | 44 | 22 | 1 | 4% | 0.8 | 24.6% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.6% | 3.79 | 2.88 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 0 | 14 | 63 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 2.51 | 4.01 | — |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 0 | 14 | 63 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 11.1% | 17.5% | 1.6% | 2.51 | 2.96 | — |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 31 | 135 | 32 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 4.11 | 3.96 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 31 | 135 | 32 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 1.5% | 4.11 | 3.33 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 48 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 47 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | BOS | 42 | 0 | 44 | 187 | 39 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | BOS | 36 | 0 | 38 | 161 | 32 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 5.22 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | BOS | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 26 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 11.7% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 5.34 | 5.61 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.0% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.83 | — |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.0% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 5.22 | — |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.0% | 11.7% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 5.34 | 5.61 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 41 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 1.4% | 3.54 | 3.38 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 192 | 0 | 200 | 870 | 159 | 74 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 1.4% | 3.54 | 3.38 | +4.7 | ||
| Career | — | 256 | 4 | 286 | 1218 | 229 | 105 | 21 | 2% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | 3.18 | 3.54 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 179 | 3 | 200 | 852 | 160 | 74 | 14 | 2% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | 3.18 | 3.54 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Sherriff (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 21.9% | 9.9% | 2.8% | — | 5.18 | 20.1% | 9.1% | 116 | +0.74 | — | — | — |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.56 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 117 | 78 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.97 | 15.6% | 7.0% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.65 | 22.4% | 17.7% | 38 | +0.68 | 2.35 | 306 | 77 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.28 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 1.1% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.18 | 195 | 75 |
| Neal Cotts L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | .290 | 3.24 | 25.5% | 17.5% | 48 | -1.59 | 3.24 | 156 | 74 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.03 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 3.1% | .260 | 3.99 | 19.3% | 9.8% | 56 | -0.04 | 3.68 | 405 | 74 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.22 | 14.5% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .308 | 5.02 | 17.8% | 2.7% | 19 | +0.80 | 4.22 | 159 | 74 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.09 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 166 | 73 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.47 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 109 | 70 |
| Brandon Mann L 2024 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 190 | 69 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 41 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 41 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 40 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 40 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 39 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.28 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 244 | 39 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.25 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 326 | 39 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 39 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 39 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 39 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 39 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 42 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 1.32 | 4.76 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |