Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 24 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 37.5% | 6.2% | 31.2% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 0.73 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 37.5% | 6.2% | 31.2% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 0.85 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 61 | 242 | 80 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 2.0% | 2.08 | 3.52 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 61 | 242 | 80 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 33.1% | 10.3% | 22.7% | 1.2% | 2.08 | 2.34 | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 4 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 36.4% | 31.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 14.73 | 6.55 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 4 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 36.4% | 31.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 14.73 | 8.01 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 41 | 171 | 54 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.6% | 12.1% | 16.5% | 5.1% | 6.64 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 41 | 171 | 54 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.6% | 11.7% | 19.9% | 5.3% | 6.64 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 36 | 160 | 55 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.9% | 11.7% | 20.3% | 4.6% | 5.25 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 36 | 160 | 55 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 34.4% | 11.9% | 22.5% | 4.4% | 5.25 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 50 | 0 | 58 | 237 | 81 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.1% | 15.5% | 14.6% | 3.7% | 3.39 | 4.58 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 50 | 0 | 58 | 237 | 81 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 34.2% | 14.8% | 19.4% | 3.4% | 3.39 | 3.91 | — |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 53 | 234 | 73 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.4% | 10.9% | 17.5% | 1.7% | 4.78 | 3.00 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 53 | 234 | 73 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.2% | 10.7% | 20.5% | 2.1% | 4.78 | 2.99 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Athletics | 12 | 1 | 19 | 78 | 27 | 12 | 1 | 8% | 1.6 | 32.8% | 17.2% | 15.6% | 1.6% | 1.93 | 3.41 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | OAK | 37 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 44 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.9% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | OAK | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 43 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 57 | 240 | 71 | 36 | 6 | — | — | 29.4% | 15.0% | 14.4% | 2.3% | 3.71 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 41 | 174 | 71 | 36 | 6 | — | — | 40.7% | 20.8% | 19.9% | 3.2% | 5.16 | 4.05 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 54 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 61 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 14.8% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 53 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 14.8% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 46 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 15.1% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 5.23 | 5.43 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 58 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 14.8% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 48 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 14.8% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 39 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 15.1% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 5.23 | 5.43 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 207 | 0 | 220 | 952 | 234 | 144 | 35 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 15.1% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 5.66 | 4.97 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 866 | 213 | 131 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 15.1% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 5.66 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 221 | 1 | 275 | 1160 | 340 | 153 | 36 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.3% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 3.99 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 161 | 1 | 200 | 845 | 248 | 111 | 26 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.3% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brooks Kriske (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 26.9% | 14.9% | 2.8% | — | 5.13 | 24.7% | 9.8% | 153 | +0.50 | — | — | — |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 80 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 1.5% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.40 | 231 | 79 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 78 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 75 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 75 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.23 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.49 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -0.74 | 2.51 | 373 | 75 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.54 | 22.2% | 14.2% | 0.9% | .308 | 3.95 | 24.7% | 14.5% | 120 | +0.41 | 1.97 | 268 | 74 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 74 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.66 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | .280 | 3.59 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.07 | 3.07 | 363 | 72 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 72 |
| Leonel Campos R 2024 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 25.7% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 168 | 72 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.47 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .355 | 5.93 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 50 | +2.46 | 1.60 | 312 | 72 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 71 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 71 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 70 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 70 |
| Nate Jones R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.06 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 6.10 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +2.04 | 2.54 | 157 | 70 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.56 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .255 | 4.23 | 24.1% | 13.8% | 97 | +0.67 | 3.41 | 212 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 25.2% | 14.9% | 1.26 | 4.89 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |