Michael Flynn — OGILVIE

Michael Flynn P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%20.8%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	3	0	4	16	4	0	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	2.25	0.99	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	3	0	4	16	4	0	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	2.25	1.10	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	21	4	36	179	33	13	3	19%	1.7	14.2%	8.4%	5.8%	1.7%	7.50	3.89	—
2022	25	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	21	4	36	179	33	13	3	19%	1.7	18.4%	7.3%	11.2%	1.7%	7.50	3.43	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	40	181	61	18	5	0%	1.1	26.5%	11.2%	15.3%	3.7%	6.75	4.31	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	40	181	61	18	5	0%	1.1	26.5%	11.2%	15.3%	3.7%	6.75	4.31	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	40	181	61	18	5	0%	1.1	33.7%	9.9%	23.8%	2.8%	6.75	3.02	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	48	206	68	18	7	3%	1.3	26.6%	8.3%	18.3%	3.9%	4.50	4.07	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	48	206	68	18	7	3%	1.3	26.6%	8.3%	18.3%	3.9%	4.50	4.07	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	48	206	68	18	7	3%	1.3	33.0%	8.7%	24.3%	3.4%	4.50	3.29	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	1	22	98	15	14	4	4%	0.9	11.2%	14.6%	-3.4%	3.2%	3.68	5.77	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	1	22	98	15	14	4	4%	0.9	11.2%	14.6%	-3.4%	3.2%	3.68	5.77	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	1	22	98	15	14	4	4%	0.9	15.3%	14.3%	1.0%	4.1%	3.68	6.01	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	32	1	34	159	35	19	3	3%	1.1	18.1%	11.4%	6.7%	2.1%	5.88	4.19	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	32	1	34	159	35	19	3	3%	1.1	18.1%	11.4%	6.7%	2.1%	5.88	4.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AA RAW	SD	13	0	13	57	17	5	1	0%	1.0	29.8%	8.8%	21.1%	1.8%	4.15	2.66	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	SD	19	1	21	102	18	14	2	5%	1.1	17.6%	13.7%	3.9%	2.0%	6.97	4.42	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SD	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	3.4%	4.89	4.96	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	SD	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	3.4%	4.89	4.96	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	3	1	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	3.4%	4.89	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	82	27	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	3.4%	4.89	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		153	7	184	839	172	85	24	5%	1.2	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	2.9%	5.68	4.25	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	8	200	914	187	92	27	5%	1.2	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	2.9%	5.68	4.25	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Flynn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	20.8%	10.8%	3.2%	—	4.96	20.7%	9.8%	20	+0.13	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	88
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	84
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	82
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	81
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	81
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	80
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Pedro Beato R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	29	SU	4.20	19.2%	8.5%	3.0%	.275	3.72	18.5%	11.1%	152	-0.48	3.47	295	80
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	79
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	79
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	78
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	78
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	279	77
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	77
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	77
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	77
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	77